BYDE(285.HK)1H24E PREVIEW:EXPECT SOLID GROWTH ON IPAD/IPHONE CYCLE ANDROID RECOVERY AND NEV ORDERS
BYDE(285.HK)1H24E PREVIEW:EXPECT SOLID GROWTH ON IPAD/IPHONE CYCLE ANDROID RECOVERY AND NEV ORDERS
New intelligent products: AI server biz to offset household energy storage weakness. We expect AI server ODM products to contribute RMB1bn of revenue in FY24E thanks to Chinese CSP client demand, offsetting household energy storage segment weakness. Overall, we expect flattish YoY revenue growth for new intelligent product segment. In addition, we become more positive on AI server biz to deliver rapid growth in FY25-26E given next-gen AI server products and components in development with Nvidia.BYDE will report 1H24 results in Aug. We estimate 1H24 revenue/NP growth of 32%/26% driven by iPad share gains, Android recovery, Jabil biz consolidation, stable NEV components sales and new intelligent product business. For 2H24E/2025E, we are positive on iPad/iPhone upgrade cycle, Android high-end orders, automotive orders and AI servers to drive revenue growth. We cut FY24-26E EPS by 6% to mainly factor in a weaker GPM. Our FY24-26E EPS estimates are 1- 9% above consensus. The stock now trades at 12.7x/9.3x FY24/25E P/E, which is attractive in our view. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$45.28 implies 18.3x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY.
BYDE將於8月份發佈1H24的業績報告。我們預計1H24的營業收入/淨利潤增長將達到32%/26%，這主要是由於iPad份額上升、Android恢復、Jabil業務整合、穩定的新能源車元件銷售和新的智能產品業務所驅動。對於2H24E/2025E，我們看好iPad/iPhone升級週期、Android高端訂單、汽車訂單和人工智能服務器的推動營收增長。我們將FY24-26E每股收益預期下調6%，主要是考慮到毛利率下降。我們的FY24-26E每股收益預期比市場預期高1-9%。該股票目前的FY24/25E市盈率爲12.7倍/9.3倍，我們認爲具有吸引力。我們的新的基於SOTP的目標股價爲HK$45.28, 暗示着FY24E市盈率18.3倍。維持買入。
Consumer electronics: iPad share gains, iPhone cycle and Android high- end orders. We estimate smartphone OEM/component business revenue to increase 39%/36% YoY in 1H/2H24E mainly driven by iPad share gains, iPhone cycle, Android high-end growth and Jabil consolidation. For Jabil biz, we estimate FY24E revenue of RMB19.4bn thanks to iPhone shipment cycle, casing upgrade and share gains. For iPad, we estimate 53%/28% YoY growth in 1H/2H24E, backed by share gains to 50% in FY24E (vs 38% in FY23). As for GPM, we expect Assembly GPM to improve slightly to 2.5%/2.6% in 1H/2H24E thanks to higher utilization in Android/Apple business, and component GPM to come in at 14.3%/14.7% in 1H/2H24E mainly dragged by Jabil consolidation.
消費電子類產品：iPad份額增加，iPhone升級和Android高端訂單。我們預計智能手機OEM/元件業務營業收入將主要由iPad份額增加、iPhone週期、Android高端增長和Jabil整合所驅動，在1H/2H24E分別增長39%/36%。對於Jabil業務，我們預計FY24E營業收入將達到194億元人民幣，這得益於iPhone出貨週期、外殼升級和份額增長。對於iPad，我們預計1H/2H24E的同比增長分別爲53%/28%，這得益於在FY24E中的份額達到50%（FY23爲38%）。對於毛利率，我們預計組裝毛利率將因Android/Apple業務利用率的提高而在1H/2H24E略有改善，該產品元件GPm將在1H/2H24E的14.3%/14.7%主要受Jabil整合拖累。
Automotive: expect 38% YoY revenue growth in FY24E driven by strong Parentco shipment and new high-end product ramp-up. We expect automotive revenue growth of 38% YoY due to Parentco shipment/ASP growth of 20%/5% YoY. In addition, we are positive on external auto customers growth driven by new project wins. As for NEV product pipeline, we believe heat pump system, high-end ADAS system products and active suspension products will boost ASP in FY24/25E given BYDE's R&D efforts and high-end order expansion.
汽車類：預計由於總公司發貨和新高端產品的放量推出而在FY24E實現38%的同比營收增長。我們預計汽車營收將由總公司出貨增長和ASP增長所帶動的20%/5% YoY的供應商營收增長驅動同比增長達到 38% YoY。此外，我們看好新項目獲得驅動的外部汽車客戶增長。關於新能源汽車產品線，我們相信熱泵系統、高端ADAS系統產品和主動懸掛器產品將在FY24/25E推動ASP提升，這得益於BYDE的研發努力和高端訂單擴張。
New intelligent products: AI server biz to offset household energy storage weakness. We expect AI server ODM products to contribute RMB1bn of revenue in FY24E thanks to Chinese CSP client demand, offsetting household energy storage segment weakness. Overall, we expect flattish YoY revenue growth for new intelligent product segment. In addition, we become more positive on AI server biz to deliver rapid growth in FY25-26E given next-gen AI server products and components in development with Nvidia.
新智能產品：人工智能服務器業務可以抵消家庭能源儲存萎靡不振。我們預計人工智能服務器ODm產品將在FY24E貢獻10億元的營業收入，這得益於中國CSP客戶的需求，抵消了家庭能源儲存業務的疲軟。總體而言，我們預計新智能產品段營收同比增長相對平穩。此外，鑑於與英偉達正在開發的下一代人工智能服務器產品和元件，我們對人工智能服務器業務在FY25-26E年實現快速增長持更加積極的態度。
Good buying opportunity on recent correction; Reiterate BUY. Overall, we lower FY24-26E EPS by 6% to factor in weaker GPM and higher OPEX. Our new SOTP-based TP of HK$45.28 implies 18.3x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY. Near-term catalysts include iPhone/iPad shipment and NEV/AI server products.
最近的下跌爲好的買點, 重申買入觀點。總體而言，我們下調FY24-26E每股收益6%,考慮到毛利率下降和OPEX增加。我們的新的基於SOTP的目標股價爲HK$45.28， 暗示着FY24E市盈率18.3倍。維持買入。近期的催化劑包括iPhone/iPad出貨和新能源汽車/AI服務器產品。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
