MINGYUE OPTICAL LENS(301101):PREANNOUNCED 1H24 NET PROFIT UP 4–16% YOY; UPBEAT ON IMPROVING BUSINESS STRUCTURE
MINGYUE OPTICAL LENS(301101):PREANNOUNCED 1H24 NET PROFIT UP 4–16% YOY; UPBEAT ON IMPROVING BUSINESS STRUCTURE
Weak industry demand. Retail sales of cultural and office supplies at companies above a designated size in China fell 5.8% YoY in 1H24, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). We expect demand in the lens industry to also come under pressure. Weak industry demand has slowed the firm's earnings growth, but we anticipate that Mingyue will outperform the industry average and gain market share.Firm estimated the firm's 1H24 net profit grew 4.3-15.9% YoY
公司預計其2024年上半年的淨利潤將同比增長4.3%-15.9%。
Mingyue Optical Lens announced that its attributable net profit for 1H24 is likely to grow approximately 4.3-15.9% YoY, reaching Rmb84-93mn. Recurring net profit is likely to increase by about 2.1-10.44% YoY to Rmb72-78mn. According to these figures, the firm's net profit attributable to shareholders in 2Q24 amounted to Rmb41mn to Rmb51mn, reflecting a YoY change of -8.3% to +12.3%. Recurring attributable net profit for the same period was Rmb37mn to Rmb43mn, with a YoY change of -7.6% to +7.0%. While the firm's results were in line with our expectations, earnings growth slowed, which we attribute to weak demand. Nevertheless, we expect that the firm will outperform the industry average.
明月光學鏡頭公佈，其2024年上半年的歸屬於股東的淨利潤預計將同比增長約4.3%-15.9%，達到人民幣8,400萬至9,300萬。經常性淨利潤預計同比增長約2.1%-10.44%，達到人民幣7,200萬至7,800萬。根據這些數據，該公司2024年第二季度歸屬於股東的淨利潤爲人民幣4,100萬至5,100萬，同比變化在-8.3%至+12.3%之間。同期的經常性歸屬於股東的淨利潤爲人民幣3,700萬至4,300萬，同比變化在-7.6%至+7.0%之間。雖然該公司的業績符合我們的預期，但利潤增長放緩，我們認爲是因爲需求疲軟。儘管如此，我們預計該公司將跑贏行業平均水平。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Weak industry demand. Retail sales of cultural and office supplies at companies above a designated size in China fell 5.8% YoY in 1H24, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). We expect demand in the lens industry to also come under pressure. Weak industry demand has slowed the firm's earnings growth, but we anticipate that Mingyue will outperform the industry average and gain market share.
行業需求疲軟。根據國家統計局的數據，中國大型企業文化和辦公用品的零售銷售額2024年上半年同比下降5.8%。我們預計，光學鏡頭行業的需求也將受到壓力。需求疲軟已經減緩了該公司的盈利增長，但我們預計明月光學鏡頭公司將跑贏行業平均水平並獲得市場份額。
Competitive environment to improve. Competition in the lens industry has intensified since 2023 due to weak demand and the influx of new firms, particularly in the field of defocus lenses. The emergence of white- label products has pressured industry product prices. However, we believe that white-label products are less effective in myopia prevention and control, and will have only a small impact on leading brands such as Easy Control. The release of industry standards by the industry association should improve the competitive environment in the future. Data from Meritco shows that the ASP of optical glasses rose 12.2% YoY on Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin in 2Q24, with the growth rate increasing by 11.8ppt QoQ.
競爭環境有望改善。由於需求疲軟和新公司的湧入，特別是在散光鏡片領域，鏡片行業的競爭從2023年開始加劇。白標產品的出現給產品價格帶來了壓力。然而，我們認爲白標產品在近視防控方面不夠有效，對Easy Control等領先品牌的影響將很小。行業協會發布行業標準有望改善競爭環境。來自美的士的數據顯示，2Q24年度天貓、京東和抖音的光學眼鏡平均售價同比增長12.2%，增長率環比增加11.8個百分點。
Mingyue continues to improve its product mix. We expect the firm's raw material and export businesses to come under pressure in 2Q24 due to weak industry demand. However, we anticipate that its Easy Control series and three major products in traditional lenses will maintain rapid growth, driving the firm to optimize its product mix and improve its profitability. On May 17, the firm presented a 24-month clinical report and seminar on Easy Control at Vision China 2024, an ophthalmology and optometry conference. Clinical data shows that the firm's Easy Control Pro product is 72% effective in delaying myopia progression in the second year and 61% effective in slowing axial growth, ranking it first in the industry. We believe the firm's defocus lenses are effective in myopia prevention and control and are cost-effective. We expect the firm to continue to gain market share and grow rapidly.
明月光學鏡頭公司繼續改進產品組合。由於行業需求疲軟，我們預計該公司的原材料和出口業務在2024年上半年會面臨壓力。然而，我們預計其Easy Control系列和傳統鏡片的三個主要產品將保持快速增長，推動該公司優化產品組合和提高盈利能力。該公司在2024年Vision China眼科和驗光會議上提介紹了Easy Control的24個月臨床報告和研討會。臨床數據顯示，該公司的Easy Control Pro產品第二年的近視進展延緩率達到72%，軸伸縮延緩率達到61%，在行業中排名第一。我們相信該公司的散光鏡片在近視防控方面具有效應，並且性價比高。我們預計該公司將繼續獲得市場份額並快速增長。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
Given weak industry demand, we lower our 2024 and 2025 revenue forecasts 7.8% and 7.8% to Rmb824mn and Rmb997mn, and cut our net profit forecasts 7.3% and 8.3% to Rmb183mn and Rmb227mn. The stock is trading at 25x 2024e and 21x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and cut our TP 15% to Rmb34.80 based on our earnings forecast revisions, implying 38x 2024e and 31x 2025e P/E, offering 50% upside.
由於需求疲軟，我們將2024年和2025年的營業收入預測下調7.8%和7.8%至人民幣8.24億和9.97億，並將我們的淨利潤預測下調7.3%和8.3%至人民幣1.83億和2.27億。該股票的2024年P/E爲25倍，2025年P/E爲21倍。我們維持超越市場評級並將目標價下調15%至人民幣34.80元，基於我們對盈利的預測，意味着2024年P/E爲38倍，2025年P/E爲31倍，提供50%的上漲空間。
Risks
風險
Intensifying competition; weaker-than-expected demand; changes in industry regulations.
競爭加劇，需求疲軟，行業法規變化。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
