CHINA RESOURCES LAND ARGE(1109.HK):LIMITED DOWNSIDE FOR 1H24 GIVEN LARGE UNBOOKED REVENUE
CHINA RESOURCES LAND ARGE(1109.HK):LIMITED DOWNSIDE FOR 1H24 GIVEN LARGE UNBOOKED REVENUE
We estimate CR Land's 1H24 revenue to grow by high single digit YoY. We estimate both development and recurring revenues to grow by high single digit, with the former supported by its RMB284.1bn unbooked revenue by end-2023 while the latter is expected to be lower than the disclosed double-digit operating figure because of the asset injection to REITs. We expect development gross margin to reduce from 2023's c.20% to below 15%, partially due to impairment on inventory given the deep market correction. As such, we estimate 1H24 core net profit to decline by c.5% YoY. We cut our 2024-26E EPS by 7.8-12.7%, respectively, based on lower margin assumptions, and trimmed our TP by 7.6%. We like CR Land's strong recurring income, and solid financial position. Maintain BUY rating for the stock.
我們預計華潤置地2024年上半年的營業收入將同比高個位數增長。我們預計開發和持續收入都將同比增長高單位數，前者將受到其在2023年底的未確認收入人民幣2841億的支持，而後者預計將低於公佈的高兩位數的經營數據，因爲向信託注入資產。我們預計開發毛利率將從2023年的約20％降至15％以下，部分原因是因市場深度調整支出庫存減值。因此，我們估計2024年上半年核心淨利潤將同比下降約5％。基於較低的利潤率假設，我們分別將2024年至2026年盈利預測下調了7.8％至12.7％，並將目標價下調了7.6％。我們喜歡華潤置地強勁的持續收入和堅實的財務狀況。維持買入評級。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
CR Land's 1H24 contracted sales amounted to RMB124.7bn, representing 26.7% YoY decline, outperforming most peers. In particular, CR Land delivered 19.0% YoY contracted sales growth in June, making it one of the few that achieved positive growth. CR Land's RMB530.8bn saleable resources planned for 2024 earlier this year included new land acquisition in 2024. Therefore, with prudent land acquisition, we expect actual amount to be less. Nevertheless, considering fading high base, we expect YoY decline to narrow in 2H24.
華潤置地2024年上半年簽約銷售額爲人民幣1247億，同比下降26.7％，表現超過大多數同行。特別是，華潤置地6月份簽約銷售額同比增長19.0％，成爲少數實現正增長的公司之一。華潤置地2024年初計劃的可銷售資源爲人民幣5308億，包括2024年的新土地收購。因此，我們預計實際金額將更少。儘管如此，考慮到基數效應的消失，我們預計下半年同比下降將放緩。
Land acquisition was prudent in 1H24 compared to previous years with RMB25.6bn total spending or RMB18.3bn attributable spending, down 75% YoY. According to CRIC, CR Land ranked the 3rd among all peers in terms of land spending in 1H24, as most peers are also very conservative in spending. We estimate OCF before land payment to be positive and after land payment to be slightly negative, and expect net gearing to maintain at around 30%.
與往年相比，華潤置地2024年上半年土地收購審慎，總支出爲人民幣25.6億，其中可歸因於公司的支出爲人民幣18.3億，同比下降75％。據中原地產研究中心（CRIC）數據，華潤置地在2024年上半年的土地支出排名第三，因爲大多數同行也非常謹慎。我們預計土地付款前的經營現金淨流量爲正，土地付款後爲略微負面的，並預計淨負債率將保持在30％左右。
CR Land disclosed that 1H24 rental income grew by 16.5% YoY. Given that some properties are injected into REITs, we estimate the consolidated rental income growth in 1H24E was lower than 10%. Management guided encouraging retail sales growth for shopping malls at 21% (SSSG: 6%). Our channel check showed some weakening in June, so we estimate that June same store retail sales may have seen some slight YoY decline.
華潤置地披露，2024年上半年租金收入同比增長16.5％。考慮到一些物業注入了信託，我們估計2024年上半年合併租金收入增長低於10％。管理層指導購物中心的零售銷售增長鼓舞人心，增長率爲21％（SSSG：6％）。我們的渠道檢查顯示，6月份有所疲軟，因此我們估計6月份同店零售額可能略微同比下降。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Property market recovery may be slower than expected
物業市場復甦可能會比預期慢
Valuation
估值
We trimmed our estimated NAV by 7.6% to HK$40.11/share given lower gross margin. The stock currently trades at 0.6x 2024E P/B, and 38.8% discount to our estimated NAV. We see such valuation as undemanding, given CR Land's strong recurring income and solid financial position.
基於毛利率假設下調估算淨資產值7.6％至港元40.11元/股。該股票目前交易價格是2024年估算的市淨率的0.6倍，並且比我們估計的淨資產值打折38.8％。鑑於華潤置地持續穩健的收入和堅實的財務狀況，我們認爲這樣的估值不苛求。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。