Upcoming CPI Could Better Capture Diesel Impact: CGS
Upcoming CPI Could Better Capture Diesel Impact: CGS
Inflation in Malaysia remained steady in June 2024, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, consistent with the previous month and slightly below market expectations. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also held firm at 1.9% year-on-year.
2024年6月，馬來西亞的通貨膨脹率保持穩定，消費者價格指數（CPI）同比增長2.0％，與上個月持平，略低於市場預期。不包括食品和能源等波動性項目的核心通貨膨脹率也同比保持在1.9％。
CGS International (CGS), said in its Economics Note today, the recent revision in diesel prices, implemented on June 10, 2024, saw prices surge from RM2.15/litre to RM3.35/litre as part of the government's subsidy rationalisation efforts.
CGS國際（CGS）今天在其經濟報告中表示，作爲政府補貼合理化工作的一部分，柴油價格最近於2024年6月10日實施，柴油價格從2.15令吉/升飆升至每升3.35令吉。
This significant increase in diesel costs has begun to manifest in the CPI, particularly evident in the transport sector, which recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.5% in June. Diesel constitutes 0.2% of the CPI basket.
柴油成本的顯著增長已開始體現在消費者價格指數上，在運輸業尤其明顯，該行業在6月份錄得0.5％的同比增長。柴油佔一籃子消費者價格指數的0.2％。
"Despite the immediate impact on transport costs, the broader effects on related sectors like transport services and food prices have yet to fully materialise, CGS said.
CGS表示：“儘管對運輸成本產生了直接影響，但對運輸服務和食品價格等相關行業的更廣泛影響尚未完全顯現。
CGS suggests that the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) data, scheduled for release on July 29, may provide further insights into the extent of price pass-through from diesel costs to other components of the CPI.
CGS表示，即將於7月29日發佈的生產者價格指數（PPI）數據可能會進一步深入了解柴油成本向消費者價格指數其他組成部分的價格傳遞程度。
"Looking ahead, economists project a potentially higher CPI trend in the second half of 2024 as government subsidies continue to be phased out. Factors contributing to inflationary pressures include expected revisions in fuel prices for RON95 gasoline and ongoing adjustments in diesel costs. Additionally, robust macroeconomic indicators such as increased retail sales and consumption imports are anticipated to sustain these price pressures."
“展望未來，經濟學家預計，隨着政府補貼繼續逐步取消，2024年下半年消費者價格指數可能會走高。造成通貨膨脹壓力的因素包括 RON95 汽油燃料價格的預期調整以及柴油成本的持續調整。此外，預計零售銷售和消費進口增加等強勁的宏觀經濟指標將維持這些價格壓力。”
In terms of monetary policy, the Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) is expected to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3.00% through the end of 2024, barring significant shifts in inflationary trends or consumer spending. The central bank's cautious stance reflects a commitment to monitor economic reforms and their impact on inflation dynamics before considering any further adjustments to interest rates.
在貨幣政策方面，除非通貨膨脹趨勢或消費者支出發生重大變化，否則馬來西亞國家銀行（BNM）預計將在2024年底之前將隔夜政策利率（OPR）維持在3.00％。央行的謹慎立場反映了在考慮進一步調整利率之前，對經濟改革及其對通貨膨脹動態的影響進行監測的承諾。
Overall, while Malaysia's economy shows resilience amid evolving fuel price dynamics and consumption trends, stakeholders are advised to closely monitor upcoming CPI and PPI releases for clearer signals on inflationary trends and policy directions.
總體而言，儘管馬來西亞經濟在不斷變化的燃油價格動態和消費趨勢中表現出彈性，但建議利益相關者密切關注即將發佈的CPI和PPI公佈，以獲得有關通貨膨脹趨勢和政策方向的更明確信號。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。