TK GROUP(2283.HK):POSITIVE PROFIT ALERT IN 1H24E; STRONG ORDER MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE INTO 2H24/FY25E
TK GROUP(2283.HK):POSITIVE PROFIT ALERT IN 1H24E; STRONG ORDER MOMENTUM TO CONTINUE INTO 2H24/FY25E
TK Group announced a positive profit alert for 1H24 with 40%+ YoY earnings growth. After speaking with TK's mgmt., we reiterate our positive view on TK's 2H24 outlook, driven by strong order pipelines, new client wins, and revenue/margin recovery across most segments. Following challenging business environment in 2022 and 2023, we believe TK is on track to deliver 38%/19% YoY earnings growth in FY24/25E, backed by client demand recovery (e.g. Jabra, Polycom), new order ramp-up (e.g. Meta, SONOS, Dyson), utilization improvement and operating leverage. We slightly adjust forecasts, and maintain TP of HK$2.79 based on 8.2x FY24E P/E. Trading at 5.6x FY24E P/E with 8% yield, we think the stock offers attractive risk/reward. Maintain BUY.
TK集團宣佈1H24業績預告爲正，年增長率超過40%。與TK管理層交談後，我們重申對TK 2H24前景的積極看法，強勁的訂單管道、新客戶贏得以及大多數領域的收入/利潤恢復是支撐因素。經歷了2022年和2023年的業務環境挑戰後，我們認爲TK有望在FY24/25E實現38%/19%的年增長率，受客戶需求恢復（例如Jabra、Polycom）、新訂單增長（例如Meta、SONOS、Dyson）、利用率提高和運營槓桿力量的支持。我們稍微調整了預測，並維持我方HK$2.79的目標價，這基於8.2倍的FY24E P/E。以5.6倍的FY24E P/E交易，8%的股息收益率，我們認爲這隻股票具有良好的風險/回報。保持買入。
1H24E strong recovery boosted by order recovery in smartphone & wearables/communications. TK announced a positive profit alert for 1H24 with 40%+ YoY earnings growth. We believe the upbeat results are mainly due to strong orders in smartphone & wearables (Meta, SONOS, Jabra, Insta360) and communication (Polycom) segments, partly offset by weaker auto segment. Projects-on-hand is expected to grow significantly due to new client orders ramp-up. We also expect GPM to improve to 24.3% in 1H24 (vs 23.3% in 1H23) due to better mix and utilization improvement.
1H24E中，智能手機和可穿戴產品/通信的訂單復甦促進了強勁復甦。TK宣佈1H24業績預告爲正，年增長率超過40%。我們認爲這一樂觀結果主要歸因於智能手機和可穿戴產品（Meta、SONOS、Jabra、Insta360）和通信（Polycom）領域的強勁訂單，部分抵消了較弱的汽車領域。預計由於新客戶訂單增加，手頭的項目將有顯著增長。由於更好的混合物和利用率提高，我們還預計在1H24中GPm將提高至24.3%（1H23爲23.3%）
2H24 Outlook: CE recovery, new order wins and better utilization. Backed by new order wins in earphones/wearables/smart home segments, CE recovery, better utilization and operating efficiency, we expect TK to deliver 20%/38% sales/earnings YoY growth in FY24E. In addition, we believe TK is well-positioned to capture more opportunities through M&A, backed by substantial cash on hand after paying back most bank loans in FY23. TK also issued special dividend in FY23 and expected to maintain high level of dividend payout if no major investment takes place in FY24E.
2H24展望：CE復甦、新訂單贏得和更好的利用率。由於耳機/可穿戴/智能家居領域訂單增加、CE復甦、利用率和運營效率的提高，我們預計TK在FY24E將實現20%/38%的銷售額/盈利年增長率。此外，我們認爲TK可以通過併購捕捉更多機遇，並獲得FY23償還大部分銀行貸款後剩餘的豐厚現金。TK還在FY23發放了特別股息，並預計如果在FY24E沒有進行重大投資，將保持高水平的股息支付。
Attractive valuation at 5.6x FY24E P/E and 8% yield; Maintain BUY. We maintain our TP of HK$2.79 based on 8.2x FY24E P/E, in-line with 5-year historical forward P/E. Trading at 5.6x FY24E P/E, we think the stock offers attractive risk-rewards considering 38%/19% EPS growth and 8%/10% yield in FY24/25E. Catalysts include Meta/Google/Amazon product launches, order ramp-up of earphones/wearables customers and margin recovery.
以5.6倍的FY24E P/E交易，8%的股息收益率，我們認爲這隻股票具有良好的風險/回報。我們維持我們的HK$2.79目標價，這是基於5年曆史前瞻性P/E的8.2倍。考慮到FY24/25E的38%/19% EPS增長和8%/10%的收益率，我們認爲這隻股票具有良好的風險回報。催化劑包括Meta/Google/Amazon的產品推出、耳機/可穿戴產品的訂單增加和利潤的恢復。保持買入。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。