Goldman Sachs Turns Bearish On Chipmakers, Advises To Hedge Through Put Options: China Remains 'A Major Risk For The Sector'
Goldman Sachs Turns Bearish On Chipmakers, Advises To Hedge Through Put Options: China Remains 'A Major Risk For The Sector'
Goldman Sachs analysts have turned surprisingly bearish on chipmakers, advising investors to hedge their exposure to the sector by purchasing put options.
高盛的分析師意外看淡芯片製造商，建議投資者購買看跌期權以對沖該板塊的風險暴露。
In a note shared Friday, analyst Arun Prakash, CFA, cautioned about the potential for further downside in the semiconductor sector in the near term. This warning comes after recent losses triggered by news of potential heightened China export restrictions.
高盛的分析師阿倫·普拉卡什在週五發佈的一份研究報告中，提醒投資者要警惕近期半導體板塊進一步下行風險的可能性。此次警告是在最近由於潛在的中國出口限制消息引發的虧損之後發出的。
"We believe the extreme crowding, geopolitical risks, upcoming earnings, and low skew provide an attractive opportunity for investors to hedge drawdown risks," stated Goldman Sachs.
高盛表示：“我們認爲，極度的擁擠、地緣政治風險、即將公佈的盈利結果和低波動率爲投資者提供了一個買入看跌期權進行對沖回撤風險的機會。”
Hedging Strategy: Buy Puts On Semiconductor ETF
對沖策略: 在半導體指數etf-vaneck上購買看跌期權
The firm advises investors to consider buying 3-month 5% out-of-the-money (OTM) put options on the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:SMH).
該公司建議投資者考慮在半導體指數etf-vaneck（紐交所SMH）上購買3個月5%虛值看跌期權。
Semiconductor stocks have seen a significant rally since the start of 2023, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF up by an eye-popping 153%, primarily driven by optimism around AI.
自2023年初以來，半導體股票已經大幅上漲，ishares費城交易所半導體etf的漲幅高達153％，主要由人工智能的樂觀情緒推動。
Image: Benzinga Pro
圖片：Benzinga Pro
However, Goldman Sachs strategists caution the AI trade has recently come under increased scrutiny. They suggest that investors should pay close attention to sales revisions as a critical indicator of the AI trade's sustainability.
然而，高盛的策略師警告AI交易最近受到了更多的審查。他們建議投資者密切關注銷售額的修正，作爲評估AI交易可持續性的重要指標。
Analysts highlighted that market consensus expects all five mega-cap AI-related tech stocks to report a slowdown in sales growth, with four of them also anticipated to see a contraction in net margins in the second quarter. Most AI-related companies are set to report earnings in late July, with NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) expected to release its results in late August.
分析師指出，市場普遍預期五家大型AI相關科技股的銷售增長將放緩，其中四家公司還預計在第二季度出現淨利潤收縮。大多數與AI相關的公司將在7月底公佈業績，納斯達克的NVIDIA Corp.預計在8月底公佈其業績。
"The geopolitical backdrop remains uncertain and the potential for additional China export restrictions remains a major risk for the sector," according to Goldman Sachs' semiconductor analyst Toshiya Hari.
高盛的半導體分析師Toshiya Hari表示：“地緣政治背景依然不確定，潛在的中國出口限制仍是該板塊的主要風險。”
As a destination for shipments, China represented approximately 40% of the total revenue over the trailing 12 months for three major U.S. semiconductor equipment companies.
作爲發貨地，中國在過去12個月的總營業收入中約佔三家美國半導體設備公司的40％。
Political Landscape and Market Sentiment
政治背景和市場情緒
In recent weeks, prediction markets have significantly shifted toward favoring a Republican victory in the upcoming November elections.
最近幾周，預測市場已大幅傾向於支持共和黨在即將到來的11月選舉中獲勝。
According to Polymarket, betting-implied odds of a Trump victory are as high as 63%, while Biden's chances have fallen to as low as 5%. Kamala Harris is gaining ground in the polls, with her victory now priced at 23%, though her candidacy as the Democratic nominee still requires party approval.
根據Polymarket的數據，特朗普獲勝的賭注概率高達63％，而拜登的幾率已降至不到5％。卡瑪拉·哈里斯在民意調查中佔據優勢，她的勝利現在的價格爲23％，但她作爲民主黨提名仍需要黨派批准。
As the presidential election draws nearer, Goldman Sachs anticipates that the China trade risk will become a central issue in political discussions.
隨着總統大選的臨近，高盛預計中國貿易風險將成爲政治討論的核心議題。
The investment bank expects that hedging volatility risk in stocks with significant exposure to China is a strategic move for investors concerned about the election's impact on US-China trade relations.
該投資銀行預計，對於關注美中貿易關係影響的投資者來說，在對中國具有重要關聯的股票進行波動率風險對沖是一種戰略性選擇。
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Photo: Shutterstock
Photo: shutterstock
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。