JA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY(002459):NON-SILICON COSTS OPTIMIZED IN 2Q24;FUNDING HEALTHY
JA SOLAR TECHNOLOGY(002459):NON-SILICON COSTS OPTIMIZED IN 2Q24;FUNDING HEALTHY
Module shipments grew rapidly in 2Q24; costs of non-silicon businesses fell by Rmb0.02-0.03/W. We estimate the firm's module shipments grew 63% YoY and 29% QoQ to about 20GW in 2Q24. Based on the median of the preannounced profit, we estimate the firm suffered a loss of about Rmb0.026/W in 2Q24. Considering possible inventory impairment, we think the firm could control its loss per watt to within Rmb0.02 in 2Q24, implying a QoQ decline of Rmb0.02-0.03/W.1H24 net profit down 117-125% YoY
1H24淨利潤同比下降117-125%。
JA Solar Technology preannounced its 1H24 results: Attributable net profit fell 117-125% YoY to minus Rmb800mn-1.2bn, with median profit dropping 121% YoY to minus Rmb1bn. In 2Q24, attributable net profit dropped 114-132% YoY to minus Rmb320-720mn. Median net profit in 2Q24 was minus Rmb520mn, down 123% YoY.
晶澳科技預發佈了1H24業績：歸屬於母公司的淨利潤同比下降117-125%，降至人民幣負8億元至負12億元，其中中位數利潤同比下降121%，降至人民幣負10億元。2Q24歸屬於母公司的淨利潤同比下降114-132%，降至人民幣負3.2億至7.2億。2Q24中位數的淨利潤爲負5.2億元，同比下降123%。
Trends to watch
需要注意的趨勢
Module shipments grew rapidly in 2Q24; costs of non-silicon businesses fell by Rmb0.02-0.03/W. We estimate the firm's module shipments grew 63% YoY and 29% QoQ to about 20GW in 2Q24. Based on the median of the preannounced profit, we estimate the firm suffered a loss of about Rmb0.026/W in 2Q24. Considering possible inventory impairment, we think the firm could control its loss per watt to within Rmb0.02 in 2Q24, implying a QoQ decline of Rmb0.02-0.03/W.
2Q24組件發貨量大幅增長，非硅業務成本降低了0.02-0.03元/瓦。我們估計公司的組件發貨量2Q24同比增長63%，環比增長29%，達到約20GW。基於預發佈的利潤中位數，我們估計公司在2Q24虧損約人民幣0.026/W。考慮到可能的存貨減值，我們認爲公司在2Q24可以將每瓦的虧損控制在人民幣0.02以內，暗示環比下降0.02-0.03元/瓦。
We estimate tax-exclusive ASP of the firm's photovoltaic (PV) modules at about Rmb0.96/W in 1Q24, and the firm guided a decline of around 10% or Rmb0.096/W from the 1Q24 level in 2Q24. Given a QoQ decline of Rmb0.04-0.05/W QoQ in silicon material prices, we estimate that the firm's average cost of non-silicon products fell more than Rmb0.02- 0.03/W QoQ in 2Q24. We attribute the cost improvement to the commencement of a project with 60GW of designed TOPCon capacity at end-2023 and rising yield rate.
我們估計公司光伏組件的稅前平均售價爲1Q24約爲人民幣0.96/W，公司引導2Q24平均售價同比下降約10%或人民幣0.096/W。鑑於硅材價格環比下降約0.04-0.05元/瓦，我們估計公司非硅產品的平均成本在2Q24環比下降超過人民幣0.02-0.03元/瓦。我們將成本的改良歸因於設計60GW的TOPCon項目於2023年底啓動以及產量逐漸增加。
The firm has healthier financial conditions than most peers; its funding capability remained strong in 2Q24. As of 1Q24, the firm had Rmb15bn in monetary funds and Rmb4.2bn in short-term debt and debt repayment due within one year. Its liability-to-asset ratio was 65.8% in 1Q24, with gearing ratio relatively low among leading module companies. We expect the firm's capex in 2024 to concentrate to the 10GW PERC cell renovation project and 2GW module project in the US. We think its capex in 2024 will be controllable.
公司的財務狀況比大多數同行要好，它的融資能力在2Q24仍然強勁。截至1Q24，公司的貨幣資金爲150億元人民幣，短期借款和應付短期債務爲42億元人民幣。2014年1季度，其負債資產比率爲65.8%，槓桿比率相對較低。我們預計公司2024年的資本支出將集中於10GW的PERC電池更新項目和美國的2GW組件項目。我們認爲公司2024年的資本支出將可控制。
In our view, leading integrated module solution providers will show brand value against the backdrop of industry-wide fluctuations, and some leading module manufacturers will likely continue to record positive cash flow. In 1Q24, JA Solar Technology received cash of Rmb8.37bn via new borrowings. In 2Q24, it added new debts of Rmb16.1bn, indicating a healthy funding capability.
在我們看來，領先的集成組件解決方案提供商將在行業波動的背景下展示品牌價值，一些領先的組件製造商可能會繼續錄得正現金流。1Q24，晶澳科技通過新融資獲得了83.7億元人民幣。2Q24，它新增債務161億元人民幣，顯示其健康的融資能力。
The firm's P/B ratio is around 1x, and its valuation is attractive at present. As of July 5, 2024, the firm's P/B (based on shareholders' equity in the most recent quarter) was 1.01x. Vertically, its valuation was 1.74- 6.38x in 2020 after its return to the A-share market. Horizontally, P/B valuations of leading integrated module solution providers range from 1x to 2.1x, while P/B valuations for leading cell and silicon wafer manufacturers are 1.8x and 0.8-1.5x. Valuations of leading A-share silicon material companies are 0.9-1.4x at present.
該公司的市淨率約爲1倍，目前估值具有吸引力。截至2024年7月5日，根據最近季度的股東權益計算，該公司市淨率爲1.01倍。從垂直方向看，其估值在2020年回歸A股市場後爲1.74-6.38倍。從橫向方面看，領先的集成組件解決方案提供商的市淨率區間爲1倍至2.1倍，而領先的電池和硅片製造商的市淨率爲1.8倍和0.8-1.5倍。目前，領先的A股硅材料公司的估值爲0.9-1.4倍。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值。
Given the firm's earnings performance and a latency related to module delivery, we think its module ASP will likely continue to drop in 3Q24. Therefore, we lower our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts 148% and 35% to minus Rmb1.51bn and Rmb2.67bn. Given the industry cycle, we switch the valuation to 2025. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating and cut our TP 32% to Rmb13, implying 16x 2025e P/E with 24% upside. The stock is trading at 13x 2025e P/E.
考慮到公司的業績表現和與組件交付有關的滯後性，我們認爲其組件平均售價可能在3Q24繼續下降。因此，我們將2024年和2025年的盈利預測下降148%和35%，分別爲負15.1億元和負26.7億元。考慮到行業週期，我們將估值切換至2025年。我們維持OUTPERFORM評級，將目標價下調32%至13元人民幣，暗示2025年的16倍市盈率，有24%的上漲空間。該股票的2025年市盈率爲13倍。
Risks
風險
Risks related to US trade policies.
與美國貿易政策相關的風險。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
