IPhone16 Projections Questioned: Ming-Chi Kuo Says Expecting Apple Intelligence To Drive Sales 'May Be Too Optimistic'
IPhone16 Projections Questioned: Ming-Chi Kuo Says Expecting Apple Intelligence To Drive Sales 'May Be Too Optimistic'
Top analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has cast doubt on the anticipated surge in Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) upcoming smartphone series, iPhone 16 sales.
頂尖分析師郭明錦質疑蘋果公司（NASDAQ：AAPL）即將推出的智能手機系列 iPhone 16的銷售熱潮。
What Happened: On Thursday, Kuo, an analyst at TF Securities stated that Apple has not ramped up its iPhone 16 orders, contrary to certain reports.
發生了什麼：週四，TF證券的分析師郭明錦表示，與某些報道相反，蘋果尚未加速其iPhone 16的訂單。
His latest observation came after the latest earnings reports from Apple suppliers TSMC and Largan. Neither TSMC nor Largan have reported an increase in unit growth, and Largan's orders for high-end models in 2024 are on par with those of the previous year, according to Kuo.
在蘋果供應商TSMC和Largan發佈最新業績後，他得出了這個最新的觀察結果。根據郭明錦的說法，TSMC和Largan都沒有報告出單位增長，Largan在2024年的高端機型訂單與去年持平。
Kuo estimates that Apple's iPhone 16 orders for the second half of 2024 are around 87 million units, lower than the 91 million iPhone 15 units ordered in 2023.
郭明錦估計，蘋果iPhone 16在2024年下半年的訂單大約爲8700萬部，低於2023年訂購的9100萬部iPhone 15。
While some suppliers may have been asked to increase production, Kuo suggests this could be due to "specific reasons within individual industries or components."
雖然某些供應商可能已經被要求增加生產，但郭明錦認爲這可能是由於“個別行業或元件內的特定原因”。
He also expressed doubt over the belief that the new Apple Intelligence feature will significantly drive iPhone 16 sales.
他還對認爲新的蘋果智能功能將大幅推動iPhone 16銷售的信念表示懷疑。
"Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another big topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 for the Beta version of Apple Intelligence in 2H24 may be too optimistic," Kuo stated.
郭明錦說：“無論‘蘋果智能’是否能夠單獨推動更新換代的需求（這是另一個大問題），認爲消費者會因2H24的‘蘋果智能’測試版而購買新的iPhone 16可能太過樂觀了。”
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Although there have been rumors of increased orders for iPhone 16 orders from time to time after WWDC, recent earnings calls from two key Apple suppliers (TSMC and Largan) have hinted that the iPhone 16 orders may not have increased
— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) July 18, 2024
儘管在WWDC之後有關iPhone 16訂單增加的傳言時有發生，但兩個關鍵蘋果供應商（TSMC和Largan）最近的財務電話暗示iPhone 16訂單可能沒有增加。
—— 郭明錤 (Ming-Chi Kuo) (@mingchikuo) 2024年7月18日
Why It Matters: The iPhone 16 series was expected to trigger an AI-driven upgrade "supercycle." Kuo previously also said that the upcoming smartphone series may not come with significant hardware changes.
爲什麼重要：預計iPhone 16系列將觸發一次AI驅動的升級“超級週期”。郭明錦此前也表示，即將推出的智能手機系列可能不會帶來重大的硬件變化。
Apple was reportedly counting on AI services to fuel demand for its new lineup after a challenging 2023. The company aimed to ship at least 90 million iPhone 16 devices in the latter half of this year, targeting about 10% growth in shipments of new iPhones compared with their predecessors.
據報道，蘋果計劃通過AI服務推動新系列的需求，在2023年經歷一番艱難之後，公司旨在在今年下半年運送至少9000萬部iPhone 16設備，瞄準新iPhone發貨量比前代增長10%。
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