Mixed CPI Data Dims Speculation Of RBNZ Rate Cut
Mixed CPI Data Dims Speculation Of RBNZ Rate Cut
During the Asian trading session, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) saw significant movement following the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This report resulted in the NZD/USD rate rising to an intra-day high of 0.6082 and the AUD/NZD rate dropping to an intra-day low of 1.1073.
在亞洲交易時段，新西蘭元（NZD）在最新消費者物價指數（CPI）報告後出現了顯着波動。該報告導致NZD/USD匯率上漲至0.6082的日內高點，AUD/NZD匯率下跌至1.1073的日內低點。
The CPI report from New Zealand presented a mixed scenario. On the positive side, headline inflation slowed to 3.3% year-on-year in Q2, down from 4.0% in Q1, marking the slowest increase since Q2 2021.
新西蘭的CPI報告呈現出了複雜的情況。從積極方面來說，總體通脹率在Q2僅增長了3.3%，較Q1的4.0%有所降低，標誌着自2021年第二季度以來的最低上漲速度。
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) had projected a slower decrease, expecting inflation to hit 3.6% in Q2.
新西蘭儲備銀行（RBNZ）預計通脹率在Q2將下降得更慢，預計將達到3.6%。
However, inflation in domestically driven sectors did not slow as expected. Non-tradeableinflation rose by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, lifting the annual rate to 5.4% in Q2, slightly higher than the RBNZ's forecast of 5.3%. Conversely, tradeable goods showed further signs of disinflation, with import prices falling by -0.5% quarter-on-quarter, reducing the annual growth rate to just 0.3%.
然而，國內驅動部門的通貨膨脹並未如預期般放緩。不可交易物價指數按季度上漲了0.9%，將年率提高至Q2的5.4%，微高於RBNZ的5.3%的預測。相反，商品可交易品價格進一步顯示出緊縮跡象，進口價格按季度下降了-0.5%，將年增長率降至僅0.3%。
Overall, market participants are now less certain about the timing of RBNZ rate cuts. The belief is that the RBNZ will focus more on domestic price pressures, which are not slowing as quickly as anticipated.
總體而言，市場參與者對RBNZ降息的時機現在變得不太確定。人們認爲RBNZ將更加關注國內的價格壓力，而這些壓力沒有預期的那麼快地放緩。
The upcoming New Zealand Labour market report for Q2, set to be released on August 6th, will also play a crucial role in their decision.
即將發佈的新西蘭二季度勞動力市場報告，將在8月6日發佈，對他們的決策也將起到至關重要的作用。
Despite these developments, the expectation remains that the AUD/NZD rate could rise above the 1.1000 level due to divergent monetary policies between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the RBNZ.
儘管發生了這些變化，預計由於澳大利亞儲備銀行（RBA）和RBNZ之間的貨幣政策分歧，AUD/NZD匯率仍可能升至1.1以上。
With New Zealand's economic growth remaining weak and inflation slowing, the RBNZ is expected to cut rates, while the RBA may consider raising rates further in response to stronger inflation in Australia.
由於紐西蘭經濟增長持續疲軟並且通脹在放緩，預計RBNZ將會降息，而RBA則可能考慮進一步提高澳大利亞通脹率的利率。
GBP: Persistent Services Inflation Raises Doubts on August BoE Rate Cut
GBP：持續的服務業通貨膨脹率引起了人們對八月英國央行降息的懷疑。
In European trading, the key economic data release was the UK's CPI report for June. This report showed that headline inflation stayed at the Bank of England's (BoE) target of 2.0% for the second consecutive month.
在歐洲交易中，最重要的經濟數據發佈是英國6月的CPI報告。該報告顯示，總體通脹率連續兩個月保持英國央行（BoE）的目標水平2.0%。
Core and services inflation, which the BoE closely monitors for signs of persistent inflation, also remained unchanged at 3.5% and 5.7%, respectively.
BoE密切監視的核心和服務業通貨膨脹率分別保持在3.5%和5.7%不變。
Meanwhile, goods inflation moved further into negative territory, registering -1.4% in June.
與此同時，商品通脹率繼續進入負值領域，在6月爲-1.4%。
The report detailed that food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation eased to 1.5% in June from 1.7% in May, and clothing and footwear inflation slowed to 1.6% from 3.0% in May. However, the annual rate of inflation for transport increased to 0.9% from 0.5%, and for restaurants and hotels, it rose to 6.2% from 5.8%.
該報告詳細說明，食品和無酒精飲料的通脹率從5月的1.7%降至6月的1.5%，服裝和鞋類的通脹率從5月的3.0%下降至1.6%。然而，運輸的年度通脹率從0.5%上升至0.9%，餐廳和酒店的年度通脹率從5.8%上升至6.2%。
This slightly stronger than expected report did not significantly impact the pound's performance but highlighted that services inflation remains stubbornly high. This could deter the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) from voting for a rate cut at next month's meeting.
這份略高於預期的報告並沒有對英鎊的表現產生顯著影響，但突顯服務業通貨膨脹率仍然保持不變。這可能會阻礙貨幣政策委員會（MPC）在下個月的會議上投票支持降息。
The UK rate market now views the probability of a BoE rate cut next month as just under 50:50. This development removes a potential downside risk for the pound, supporting its current upward momentum.
英鎊的利好動力現在被認爲存有不到50%的央行利率下調概率。這種發展消除了英鎊的潛在下行風險，支持其當前向上勢頭。
The improving growth outlook for the UK economy was also reflected in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) updated World Economic Outlook, which revised the UK's GDP forecast for this year higher to 0.7%, acknowledging stronger growth at the start of the year.
國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）更新的世界經濟展望也反映出英國經濟前景的改善，將英國今年的國內生產總值（GDP）預測上調至0.7%，承認了今年年初英國經濟增長強勁。
Market analysis from Luca Santos, market analyst at ACY Securities
ACY證券市場分析師Luca Santos的市場分析。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。