Building A Robust Tax Base And Containing Expenditure
Building A Robust Tax Base And Containing Expenditure
MARC has releasesa a multi-part series where the ratings agency analyses the elements of fiscal sustainability through: i)
government revenue and expenditures, ii) on– and off–government balance sheet items, and iii) innovative sustainability ratios. In this first part, it discusses on Malaysia's fiscal health through taxes and expenditures.
MARC發佈了一個由多部分組成的系列，評級機構通過以下方式分析了財政可持續性的要素：i)
政府收入和支出，ii) 政府資產負債表內外的項目，以及 iii) 創新的可持續性比率。在第一部分中，它討論了通過稅收和支出實現馬來西亞的財政健康。
On the aspect of fiscal sustainability MARC notes that this enables governments to meet future public expenditure and financial obligations without resorting to excessive borrowing. Raising sufficient revenue while balancing current spending requirements builds buffers for future economic shocks.
在財政可持續性方面，MARC指出，這使政府能夠在不訴諸過度借貸的情況下履行未來的公共支出和財務義務。在平衡當前支出要求的同時籌集足夠的收入，可以爲未來的經濟衝擊提供緩衝。
Higher government debt levels over the long term necessitate a faster pace of current revenue generation and expense reduction, essential for a sustainable fiscal balance. Against the backdrop of the global trend towards fiscal consolidation amid elevated debt levels, moderate global growth prospects and higher borrowing costs, Malaysia's Public Finance and Fiscal Responsibility Act 2023 has capped the fiscal deficit at 3.0% of gross domestic product (GDP) while allowing for temporary deviations. The government aims to achieve this benchmark by 2026, which, if successful, would stabilise Malaysia's elevated debt levels and align the deficit with the global median.
從長遠來看，較高的政府債務水平需要加快當前的創收和開支削減的步伐，這對於可持續的財政平衡至關重要。在債務水平升高、全球增長前景溫和和以及借貸成本升高的情況下，全球財政整合趨勢的背景下，馬來西亞的《2023年公共財政和財政責任法》將財政赤字限制在國內生產總值（GDP）的3.0％，同時允許暫時偏差。政府的目標是到2026年實現這一基準，如果成功，這將穩定馬來西亞較高的債務水平，使赤字與全球中位數保持一致。
Self-sufficiency in revenue generation requires a wider tax revenue base. However, Malaysia's tax revenue-to-GDP ratio has trended downwards over time from 15.5% in 2003 to 12.6% in 2023 and is projected to decline further to 12.3% in 2024. Moreover, this ratio has been lower than those of its ASEAN-6 peers since 2017 (2023 median of peers: 12.9%). Of note, while higher taxes are needed, welfare considerations for lower income groups are important to Malaysia's government. As such, the medium-term revenue strategy is inclined towards higher tax rates with a more equitable tax structure such as windfall taxes and a progressive personal income tax rate.
創收方面的自給自足需要更廣泛的稅收基礎。但是，隨着時間的推移，馬來西亞的稅收收入與國內生產總值的比率一直呈下降趨勢，從2003年的15.5％下降到2023年的12.6％，預計將在2024年進一步下降至12.3％。此外，自2017年以來，該比率一直低於其 ASEAN-6 同行（2023年同行中位數：12.9％）。值得注意的是，儘管需要提高稅收，但低收入群體的福利考慮對馬來西亞政府很重要。因此，中期收入戰略傾向於通過更公平的稅收結構（例如意外稅和累進個人所得稅稅率）提高稅率。
Corporate income tax (CIT) collection, which constitutes nearly half of government revenue, remained level at 5.1% of GDP in 2023 (2003: 5.7%). Given that Malaysia's CIT rate of 24% is already higher than the ASEAN-6's median of 21%, other revenue-broadening measures could include phasing out income tax exemptions that no longer require incentives. Certain
sectors currently receive up to 100% income tax exemptions for up to 10 years to establish a presence in industrial economic corridors. However, as these corridors and sectors have matured, such lengthy and generous exemptions could be reduced. Going forward, corporate tax revenue may rise, as the anticipated Global Minimum Tax in 2025 will ensure
multinational corporations contribute at least 15% in tax. This will address companies currently benefitting from lower rates due to tax incentives.
佔政府收入近一半的企業所得稅（CIT）在2023年保持在國內生產總值的5.1％的水平（2003年：5.7％）。鑑於馬來西亞24％的CiT稅率已經高於 ASEAN-6 的21％的中位數，其他擴大收入的措施可能包括逐步取消不再需要激勵措施的所得稅豁免。可以肯定
目前，各行業可獲得高達100％的所得稅豁免，有效期最長爲10年，以在工業經濟走廊中佔有一席之地。但是，隨着這些走廊和部門的成熟，這種漫長而慷慨的豁免可能會減少。展望未來，公司稅收入可能會增加，因爲預期的2025年全球最低稅將確保
跨國公司繳納至少15％的稅款。這將解決目前因稅收優惠而受益於較低稅率的公司的問題。
Given the decline in indirect taxes in Malaysia, which include taxes on goods and services, to 3.2% of GDP (2003: 5.2%), higher rates of the Sales and Services Tax (SST) and the recently implemented Low-Value Goods Tax should provide some improvement in tax collection. Nonetheless, indirect taxes were merely 26.5% of total tax revenue in 2022, much
lower than the ASEAN-6 median of 43.0%. All else remaining the same, we estimate that a 10% increase in indirect tax collection could narrow the fiscal deficit by around 0.3% of GDP.
鑑於馬來西亞的間接稅（包括商品和服務稅）下降至GDP的3.2％（2003年：5.2％），較高的銷售和服務稅（SST）稅率以及最近實施的低價值商品稅應能在一定程度上改善稅收徵管。儘管如此，間接稅在2022年僅佔總稅收收入的26.5％，很多
低於 ASEAN-6 的中位數 43.0%。在其他方面保持不變，我們估計，增加10％的間接稅可以使財政赤字減少約GDP的0.3％。
While tax compliance remains a challenge, especially for direct taxes, Malaysia's ongoing refinement of the e-invoicing system should enhance the efficiency of indirect taxes collection. Overall, widening the catchment of consumption tax is critical for fiscal sustainability, and this can be implemented through having a wider basket of goods for the existing SST or introducing a variant of the Goods and Services Tax or Value-Added Tax.
儘管稅收合規仍然是一項挑戰，尤其是直接稅，但馬來西亞對電子發票系統的持續完善應能提高間接稅徵收的效率。總體而言，擴大消費稅的適用範圍對於財政可持續性至關重要，這可以通過擴大現有SST的商品籃子或引入商品和服務稅或增值稅的變體來實現。
Optimising expenditure is key to balancing socioeconomic goals, as well as achieving higher economic growth and fiscal sustainability. This is particularly necessary in Malaysia due to the limited allocation for development spending which was only 23.4% of total expenditure in
優化支出是平衡社會經濟目標以及實現更高的經濟增長和財政可持續性的關鍵。這在馬來西亞尤其必要，因爲發展支出分配有限，僅佔馬來西亞總支出的23.4％
As over half of operating expenditure is committed towards public sector allocations and debt obligations, increasing debt service charges (DSC) may further constrain the fiscal space. In 2024, DSC as a share of revenue is expected to increase to 16.2% (2023: 14.7%), breaching the previously self-imposed threshold of 15.0%. Tightening public procurement regulations should help optimise economic returns from government spending while supporting fiscal consolidation.
由於超過一半的運營支出用於公共部門的撥款和債務義務，增加還本付息費（DSC）可能會進一步限制財政空間。2024年，DSC佔收入的份額預計將增加到16.2％（2023年：14.7％），突破先前自己設定的15.0％的門檻。收緊公共採購法規應有助於優化政府支出的經濟回報，同時支持財政整合。
Rationalising subsidies remains a key factor in capping government expenditure, as subsidies have increased as a share of Malaysia's operating expenditure from 4% in 2003 to 25% in 2023. In 2022, Malaysia spent RM70.3 billion on subsidies, with fuel subsidies making up 74%. Consequently, ongoing fuel subsidy reform remains absolutely necessary, alongside the ongoing review of various subsidies such that the monies allocated are better targeted at disadvantaged groups in society. Ceteris paribus, we estimate that a 10% decrease in RON95 fuel subsidies could narrow the fiscal deficit by around 0.2% of GDP. At present, encouraging signs in the labour market, GDP growth and consumer spending should facilitate subsidy retargeting towards beneficial welfare outcomes.
補貼合理化仍然是限制政府支出的關鍵因素，因爲補貼佔馬來西亞運營支出的比例已從2003年的4％增加到2023年的25％。2022年，馬來西亞在補貼上花費了703令吉，其中燃料補貼佔74％。因此，當前的燃料補貼改革仍然是絕對必要的，同時對各種補貼進行持續審查，以便分配的資金更好地針對社會中的弱勢群體。不管怎樣，我們估計，減少 10% 的 RON95 燃料補貼可能會使財政赤字縮小約佔國內生產總值的0.2％。目前，勞動力市場、國內生產總值增長和消費支出出現的令人鼓舞的跡象，應有助於補貼重定向有利的福利成果。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。