AMERISAFE, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMSF) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 11% in the last month. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. In fact, the share price is down 28%, which falls well short of the return you could get by buying an index fund.

The recent uptick of 8.5% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years over which the share price declined, AMERISAFE's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 3.7% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 6% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market is more cautious about the business these days.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

We know that AMERISAFE has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for AMERISAFE the TSR over the last 5 years was 10.0%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Investors in AMERISAFE had a tough year, with a total loss of 2.6% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 24%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 1.9%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with AMERISAFE (at least 1 which is significant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

Of course AMERISAFE may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com