MINTH GROUP(425.HK):OVERSEAS FOUNDATION TO WITHSTAND TRADE RISKS
MINTH GROUP(425.HK):OVERSEAS FOUNDATION TO WITHSTAND TRADE RISKS
Earnings/Valuation. We project Minth's revenue to rise 19%/15%/13% YoY and net profit to increase 18%/14%/13% YoY in FY24-26E. We also expect its net debt to improve and dividend distribution to resume. If the company maintains its previous 40% dividend payout ratio, that could result in a dividend yield of 6.8% based on our FY24E net profit forecast and current share price (as of 15 July 2024). We initiate our coverage of Minth with a BUY rating and target price of HK$21.00, which is based on a 10x FY24E P/E, in line with its average forward 12-month P/E during the past three years. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower revenue/margins, higher risks in overseas operation than we expect, as well as a sector de-rating.Initiate with BUY and TP of HK$21.00. Minth Group (Minth) has beentransforming from an exterior decorative parts maker to a more diversified tier- 1 supplier with manufacturing capabilities in different materials. We are of the view that investors have probably underestimated Minth's solid overseas foundation which is crucial for the upcoming trade risks, as its valuation has dropped to a historical-low level. We also think battery housing and other new products such as chassis structural parts and intelligent integrated exteriors could lift Minth's dollar content per car in the next few years, which is also an important driver for its profit growth.
以買入操作開始，目標價21港元。敏實集團（Minth）已從一個外飾零部件製造商轉型爲一傢俱有不同材料製造能力的更多元化的一流供應商。我們認爲投資者可能低估了對於即將到來的貿易風險至關重要的Minth牢固的境外基礎，並且其估值已降至歷史最低水平。我們也認爲電池殼等新產品如底盤結構部件和智能綜合外部件可能將在未來幾年提升Minth每輛汽車的美元含量，這也是其利潤增長的重要驅動因素。
Solid overseas foundation as revenue and profit driver. We are of theview that Minth is better positioned than most Chinese parts suppliers in facing potential trade risks amid rising geopolitical tensions. Minth's major overseas plants have all been making money and contributed about 10% of its total net profit in FY23. We estimate overseas net profit could double in FY26E from FY23. We think Minth could be one of the top choices for Chinese automakers when they source parts for local production in Europe.
強大的境外基礎是營收和利潤的驅動因素。我們認爲，面對日益加劇的地緣政治緊張局勢和潛在的貿易風險，Minth比大多數中國零部件供應商的地位更爲優越。敏實集團的主要境外工廠均實現盈利，在FY23的總淨利潤中貢獻約10%。我們估計，從FY23年到FY26年，境外淨利潤可能翻倍。我們認爲，當中國汽車製造商在歐洲本土生產汽車零部件時，Minth可能是他們的首選之一。
Still room for battery housing business to grow. Although we expectbattery housing price to drop over time, we see huge room for growth at Minth amid global EV market share increases and Minth's potential share gains in the battery housing segment. We expect Minth's battery housing revenue to surge 60%/35%/30% YoY in FY24-26E, higher than our projected global EV sales volume growth. We also expect gross margin for its battery housing to widen steadily as its Serbia and Czech plants ramp up. We believe battery housing is also a stepping stone for Minth to explore chassis related new products and a hedge to its saturated traditional business. More than 10% of battery housing segment revenue in FY23 came from chassis structural parts. Such demand could increase with its offering of products like front cross-members and sub-frames.
電池殼業務仍有增長空間。雖然我們預計電池殼價格會隨時間降低，但是在全球電動汽車市場份額增加和敏實集團在電池殼領域潛在份額增長的背景下，我們認爲敏實集團在電池殼方面有着巨大的增長空間。我們預計，在FY24-26E年，敏實集團的電池殼營收將同比增長60%/35%/30%，高於我們預計的全球電動汽車銷量增長。我們還預計，隨着敏實集團在塞爾維亞和捷克的工廠逐步實現規模化生產，其電池殼的毛利率也會穩步提升。我們認爲，電池殼也是敏實集團探索與底盤相關的新產品的跳板，同時是其飽和傳統業務的對沖。在FY23年，電池殼業務收入的10%以上來自底盤結構部件。這種需求可能會隨着其推出諸如前叉橫樑和子車架等產品而增加。
Earnings/Valuation. We project Minth's revenue to rise 19%/15%/13% YoY and net profit to increase 18%/14%/13% YoY in FY24-26E. We also expect its net debt to improve and dividend distribution to resume. If the company maintains its previous 40% dividend payout ratio, that could result in a dividend yield of 6.8% based on our FY24E net profit forecast and current share price (as of 15 July 2024). We initiate our coverage of Minth with a BUY rating and target price of HK$21.00, which is based on a 10x FY24E P/E, in line with its average forward 12-month P/E during the past three years. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower revenue/margins, higher risks in overseas operation than we expect, as well as a sector de-rating.
利潤/估值。我們預計，敏實集團的營收在FY24-26E年將同比增長19%/15%/13%，淨利潤將同比增長18%/14%/13%。我們還預計，其淨債務將改善，並恢復股息分配。如果公司保持之前的40%股息支付比率，那可能會導致我們的FY24E淨利潤預測和當前股價（截至2024年7月15日）基礎上，股息率爲6.8%。我們開始覆蓋敏實集團，給予買入評級，目標價爲21港元，基於FY24E市盈率的10倍，與其過去三年平均的未來12個月市盈率相同。我們的評級和目標價的主要風險包括收入/利潤率降低，其境外經營風險高於我們的預期以及板塊貶值。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。
