Higher Producer Prices Show Inflation May Stick Around 'Longer Than Most People Expect'
Higher Producer Prices Show Inflation May Stick Around 'Longer Than Most People Expect'
Inflation may stay elevated beyond people's expectations, according to economists.
根據經濟學家的說法，通脹可能會超出人們的預期。
What Happened: The Producer Price Index released Friday showed a higher-than-expected increase in June. The results surprised investors. Observers anticipate rate cuts on the horizon after a larger-than-expected drop in the monthly Consumer Price Index inflation gauge issued on Thursday.
事件經過: 週五公佈的生產者價格指數顯示6月份漲幅高於預期。這個結果讓投資者感到驚訝。觀察人士預計，在週四公佈的月度消費物價指數通脹率大幅降低後，未來會有利率削減。
On an annual basis compared to June 2023, the overall producer basket rose by 2.6%. It attained its highest point since March 2023.
與2023年6月相比，總生產者籃子的年度基礎上漲了2.6%。它達到了2023年3月以來的最高點。
"This morning's data is a reminder that inflation is still an issue and is likely to be with us for longer than most people expect," Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, said on Friday.
美國Investment Alliance的首席投資官克里斯·扎卡雷利於週五表示：“今天早上公佈的數據提醒我們，通脹仍然是一個問題，並且可能會比大多數人預計的時間更長。”
The market should pay closer attention to the CPI than producer inflation, he said. That is what the Federal Reserve focuses on in determining whether it will cut the key interest rate, currently between 5.25% and 5.5%.
他說，市場應該更加關注消費者物價指數而非生產者物價指數。這是美國聯邦儲備委員會在決定是否削減關鍵利率（目前在5.25%至5.5%之間）時關注的重點。
Also Read: June Producer Inflation Exceeds Forecasts, Restrains Investor Euphoria Following Consumer Price Relief
閱讀更多: 生產者物價指數，在消費者物價緩解後超預期增長，制約了投資者的狂熱。
"The inflation data this week have been mixed," he said. "We are still optimistic about the economy and the market given the favorable price dynamics (largely slowing) and strong labor market, but if either of those trends change it will disproportionately affect markets because valuations have become stretched."
他說：“本週的通脹數據是錯綜複雜的。儘管價格動態（大致在放緩）和穩健的勞動力市場情況相對較好，但如果其中任何一個趨勢發生變化，市場會受到不成比例的影響，因爲估值程度已經過高。”
Producer price inflation and consumer price inflation are "a bit above levels the Fed would feel comfortable with," Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Incorporated (NYSE:CMA), said Friday.
合信銀行（紐交所：CMA）的首席經濟學家比爾·亞當斯週五表示，生產者價格通脹和消費者價格通脹略高於聯儲局感到舒適的水平。
"While the Fed looks poised to start cutting rates in September, they will do it in a much more gradual fashion than in the last couple rate cycles," he said.
他說：“儘管聯儲局看起來將在9月開始削減利率，但他們將以比過去幾個利率週期更逐步的方式進行。”
A significant rise in trade services and retail rents drove the upside surprise and offset lower energy prices, he said.
他說，貿易服務和零售租金的大幅增長抵消了能源價格的下降。
The higher producer prices may limit downside pressure on consumer prices depending on firm's ability to pass on higher costs, Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:BAC) said on Friday.
美國銀行公司（紐交所：BAC）週五表示，較高的生產者價格可能會限制消費者價格的下行壓力，這取決於公司傳遞較高成本的能力。
But the higher PPI was "soft" on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index due in large part to medical services, the bank said.
該銀行稱，生產者物價指數較高的原因在於醫療服務，在大型個人消費支出（PCE）指數上產生了“軟”影響。
As a result, Bank of America said it expects the revised core PCE to rise by 0.17% m/m in June, down 4 basis points from its post-CPI estimate.
因此，美國銀行稱，它預計修正後的核心個人消費支出指數將在6月份同比上升0.17% ，比其後CPI估計下降了4個點子。
"On an annualized basis, this would be effectively in line with the Fed's 2% target and follow a very soft print in May," it said on Friday.
該銀行週五表示：“從年度基礎上看，這將有效地達到聯儲局的2%目標，並在5月份出現非常軟的數據之後。”
"In sum, disinflation has gotten back on track over the last two months."
總之，通貨緊縮在過去兩個月已經重回正軌。
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- 60% Expect June Inflation Data Will Drop, But Most See Costs Still Rising
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。