Inflation Data Sparks Rush For Gold, Real Estate, Treasuries, Yen: Traders See September Rate Cut As Done Deal
Inflation Data Sparks Rush For Gold, Real Estate, Treasuries, Yen: Traders See September Rate Cut As Done Deal
The stars seem to be aligned for a reduction in U.S. interest rates in about two months, as the June inflation report released Thursday may provide policymakers with the confidence that annual consumer price changes are finally trending toward the Fed's 2% target.
美國的利率料於兩個月內降低，隨着星期四公佈的6月通脹報告，可能會給政策制定者帶來信心，年度消費物價變動的趨勢終於符合聯儲局2%的目標。
The inflation rate fell from 3.3% in May 2024 to 3% year-over-year in June 2024, the lowest since April 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The outcome fell short of the estimated 3.1%. On a month-over-month basis, the consumer basket contracted by 0.1%, marking the first negative reading since May 2020.
根據勞工統計局的數據，2024年6月同比通脹率從2024年5月的3.3%降至3%，爲2021年4月以來最低水平。結果不及預期的3.1%。就月度基礎，消費籃子收縮0.1%，標誌着自2020年5月以來首次出現負增長。
The data sparked a surge in rate cut bets, triggering a rally in interest-rate-sensitive assets.
這些數據促使市場加大了降息押注，刺激了利率敏感資產的上漲。
Market-implied odds for a September rate cut increased from 71% to 91% following the inflation report, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Additionally, the implied cuts by year-end rose to 65 basis points, suggesting between two and three rate cuts.
根據芝加哥商品交易所的FedWatch工具，市場對9月份降息的預期由發佈通脹報告前的71%上升至91%。此外，年底的隱含降息率上升了65個點子，表明可能會出現兩至三次降息。
Investors Flock To Bonds, Low-Yield Currencies, Real Estate Stocks As Rate Cut Bets Rise
隨着降息押注的上升，投資者湧向債券、低收益貨幣、房地產股等，
Yields on two-year Treasury notes tumbled 10 basis points to 4.51% at 11 a.m. ET, on track to hit the lowest since March. 11. Yields on long-dated Treasuries also fell markedly, sending the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) up by 1.2%.
兩年期國債收益率下跌10個點子，美元指數bullish份額（etf）（NYSE：UUP）跌幅0.6%，可能會追平自5月中旬以來的最低點。長期國債收益率也大幅下跌，使iShares 20年以上國債ETF（納斯達克：TLT）上漲了1.2%。
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), fell 0.6%, on track for the worst session since mid-May.
景順db美元指數bullish etf（紐交所：UUP）追蹤的美元指數（DXY）下跌0.6%，可能是自5月中旬以來最糟糕的一天。
The low-yielding Japanese yen, tracked through the Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (NYSE:FXY), rose 1.8%. The dollar-yen pair dropped to 158.73, marking the second-worst session year-to-date, as traders speculated that a potential Bank of Japan intervention accelerated the move, although authorities did not officially confirm it.
低收益日元，通過景順CurrencyShares日元Trust（紐交所：FXY）進行跟蹤，上漲1.8%。美元/日元匯率下跌至158.73，標誌着截至目前爲止年內第二糟糕的一天，交易員們認爲，日本央行可能進行了潛在的干預，促使該貨幣對下跌，儘管當局沒有正式確認。
Gold prices, as monitored through the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), rallied 1.9% to $2,415 per ounce, marking the best-performing session since mid-December 2023 and nearing all-time highs.
SPDR黃金信託基金（紐交所：GLD）監測的金價上漲1.9%至每盎司2,415美元，創下2023年12月中旬以來表現最好的一天，接近創紀錄的高點。
The broader stock market fell, with the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), falling 0.4%, and the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) tumbled 1.4%. Rate-sensitive equity sectors and industries reacted differently Thursday, with real estate stocks outperforming.
股市整體下跌，SPDR標普500 ETF信託（紐交所：SPY）下跌0.4%，科技重weights帶的納指100期貨-invesco qqq trust（納斯達克：QQQ）暴跌1.4%。
The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLRE) rose 2.5% by 11 a.m. ET, outperforming all other S&P 500 sectors.
股市敏感的領域和行業在週四有了不同的反應，其中房地產股表現最好。該行業選擇性標普股票ETF基金（紐交所：XLRE）在美國東部時間上午11點上漲了2.5%，表現超越了標普500的所有其他板塊。
Among industries, homebuilders, as tracked by the SPDR Homebuilders ETF (NYSE:XHB) soared 5.4%, on track for their best day since mid-December 2023.
在行業中，房屋建築商，通過SPDR房屋建築商ETF（紐交所：XHB）進行跟蹤，飆升5.4%，正在追蹤自2023年12月中旬以來的最佳表現。
Chart: Rate-Sensitive Assets Rally After Cooler-Than-Expected June Inflation Report
圖表：利率敏感的資產在6月份通脹報告低於預期後大漲。
Image: Benzinga Pro
圖片：Benzinga Pro
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Photo via Shutterstock.
圖片來自shutterstock。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。