La Nina Impacts Could See CPO Prices Easing In 2H
La Nina Impacts Could See CPO Prices Easing In 2H
The plantation sector faced mixed developments in June 2024, with notable increases in crude palm oil (CPO) output and stockpiles, alongside uncertainties due to potential La Niña weather conditions. Robust upstream activity boosted production, but sluggish exports and rising stock levels signalled potential challenges ahead. MPOB-reported palm oil production reached 1.615 million metric tonnes (MT), a slight decrease month-on-month but a 12% increase year-on-year, reflecting the sector's resilience despite external pressures.
2024年6月，種植業面臨喜憂參半的發展，粗棕櫚油（CPO）產量和庫存顯著增加，還有拉尼娜潛在天氣狀況帶來的不確定性。強勁的上游活動提振了產量，但出口疲軟和庫存水平上升預示着未來的潛在挑戰。MPOB報告的棕櫚油產量達到161.5萬公噸（MT），環比略有下降，但同比增長12％，這反映了該行業在外部壓力下的彈性。
MIDF Amanah Investment Bank (MIDF), RHB Investment Bank (RHB), and Kenanga Investment Bank (Kenanga) maintained NEUTRAL stances on the sector, citing various factors impacting the market.
MIDF reported a significant rise in CPO output to 1.62 million tonnes, driven by productive activity in regions like Kedah, Negeri Sembilan, and Pahang. They highlighted concerns over potential La Niña impacts and revised their CPO target price to RM3,800 per metric tonne.
RHB pointed to rising palm oil inventory levels and the high probability of La Niña developing later in the year, maintaining a CPO price assumption of RM3,900 per tonne for 2024.
MIDF阿瑪納投資銀行（MIDF）、印度盧比投資銀行（RHB）和肯南加投資銀行（Kenanga）以影響市場的各種因素爲由對該行業保持中立立場。
MIDF報告稱，受吉打、森美蘭州和彭亨州等地區的生產活動的推動，CPO產量大幅增長至16.2萬噸。他們強調了對拉尼娜潛在影響的擔憂，並將CPO目標價格上調至每公噸3,800令吉。
RhB指出，棕櫚油庫存水平上升，拉尼娜很有可能在今年晚些時候發展，維持2024年每噸3,900令吉的CPO價格假設。
Kenanga reported that June's palm oil production, though slightly above the 10-year average, was 6% lower than their estimates. Exports fell 13% below their expectations, leading to higher quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year inventory levels. They observed that the average CPO price in June 2024 strengthened month-on-month to RM3,958 per MT, ending the first half of 2024 at RM4,011 per MT. However, Kenanga anticipates CPO prices to ease in the second half due to seasonally higher edible oil supply, maintaining a CPO price forecast of RM3,800 per MT for 2024-25.
凱南加報告說，6月份的棕櫚油產量雖然略高於10年平均水平，但比他們的預期低6％。出口比預期下降了13％，導致庫存水平同比和同比增加。他們觀察到，2024年6月的CPO平均價格同比上漲至每噸3,958令吉，到2024年上半年結束時爲每噸4,011令吉。但是，凱南加預計，由於食用油供應季節性增加，下半年CPO價格將有所緩解，維持2024-25年每噸3,800令吉的CPO價格預測。
MIDF also noted that June's ending stockpiles increased to 1.83 million tonnes due to sluggish exports and rising downstream product levels. Local CPO prices ended June at RM3,996 per metric tonne, with an average monthly price of RM3,958 per metric tonne. Despite the stable jobless rate, MIDF expressed concerns over the cooling job market and employment growth remaining below 100,000 for the second month.
MIDF還指出，由於出口疲軟和下游產品水平上升，6月份的期末庫存增加到183萬噸。截至6月，當地CPO價格爲每公噸3,996令吉，平均每月價格爲每公噸3,958令吉。儘管失業率穩定，但MIDF對就業市場降溫以及就業增長連續第二個月保持在10萬以下表示擔憂。
RHB highlighted that palm oil inventory rose due to lower exports and production. They also pointed out that the incoming Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's plans to boost palm oil output and maintain the biodiesel mandate could influence the market. Additionally, Hindustan Unilever's (HUL) plan to reduce palm oil content in its soaps in India by 25% could negatively affect demand, although the overall impact may be limited.
RhB強調，由於出口和產量下降，棕櫚油庫存增加。他們還指出，即將上任的印度尼西亞總統普拉博沃·蘇比安託提高棕櫚油產量和維持生物柴油要求的計劃可能會影響市場。此外，印度斯坦聯合利華（HUL）計劃將其在印度的肥皂中的棕櫚油含量減少25％，儘管總體影響可能有限，但可能會對需求產生負面影響。
Kenanga highlighted that upstream margins are improving due to firm CPO prices and reduced costs, though downstream margins remain weak due to excess refining capacity and subdued demand for oleochemicals. They maintained a neutral outlook, preferring smaller, high-growth, and upstream-centric planters. Their top picks include PPB, TSH, and UMCCA, based on their growth potential and strategic positioning.
凱南加強調，由於CPO價格堅挺和成本降低，上游利潤率正在提高，但由於煉油能力過剩和對油脂化學品的需求疲軟，下游利潤率仍然疲軟。他們保持中立的前景，偏愛規模較小、增長率高、以上游爲中心的種植園。根據他們的增長潛力和戰略定位，他們的首選包括PPb、TSH和UMCCA。
Top pick for the sector IOI Corp, supported by strong upstream and downstream profitability and strategic refinery and oleo plant locations. They also upgraded KLK and PPB to buy due to recent softened share prices, presenting valuable buying opportunities. RHB's top picks include IOI Corp, LSIP, and Sarawak Oil Palms (SOP), favouring both pure and integrated planters on valuation grounds.
該行業的首選IOI Corp，這得益於強勁的上游和下游盈利能力以及煉油廠和油氣廠的戰略位置。由於最近股價疲軟，他們還將KlK和ppB上調爲買入，這提供了寶貴的買入機會。RHB的首選包括IOI Corp、LSIP和砂拉越油棕櫚樹（SOP），出於估值考慮，他們偏愛純種植者和綜合種植者。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。