GenAI Must Generate $600B A Year To Justify Hardware Costs, Sequoia Estimates: How Much Does Google Search Make?
GenAI Must Generate $600B A Year To Justify Hardware Costs, Sequoia Estimates: How Much Does Google Search Make?
Artificial intelligence (AI) has taken the markets by storm, catapulting several AI-related stocks to all-time highs.
人工智能已經如風暴一般席捲了市場，推動了許多與AI相關的股票創歷史新高。
Amid concerns that AI's rally is a "bubble," a new report from Sequoia Capital cast doubt on whether firms will ever be able to recoup hardware costs.
在人們擔心AI的漲勢是一個"泡沫"的同時，Sequoia Capital的一份新報告拋出了疑問，即公司是否能夠收回硬件成本。
Sequoia's Report: A report from Sequoia Capital written by David Cahn estimated that AI needs to generate $600 billion a year to justify its immense hardware costs.
Sequoia Capital的一份報告，由David Cahn撰寫，估計AI每年需要創造6000億美元的收入才能證明其巨大的硬件成本。
Cahn arrived at the $600 billion number by taking NVIDIA Corp's (NASDAQ:NVDA) fourth-quarter GPU revenue of $150 billion and doubling it to account for the cost of AI data centers. Cahn doubled the resulting $300 billion to account for a 50% gross margin for the end-user of the GPU.
Cahn通過將NVIDIA Corp的（納斯達克股票代碼：NVDA）第四季度的GPU芯片營業收入1500億美元翻倍，以考慮AI數據中心的成本。 Cahn將結果爲3000億美元翻倍，以考慮GPU最終用戶的50％毛利潤。
GPU stockpiles have steadily increased as supply shortages have diminished.
隨着供應短缺的減少，GPU芯片庫存穩步增長。
Cahn assumes that Alphabet Inc, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Meta Platforms Inc, Oracle Corp, ByteDance, Alibaba Group, Tencent Holdings, X and Tesla Inc will generate a combined $100 billion from new AI-related revenue each year. The estimate creates a $500 billion gap between revenue and cost.
Cahn認爲Alphabet Inc、Microsoft Corp、Apple Inc、meta platforms Inc、Oracle Corp、ByteDance、阿里巴巴（臨時代碼）、騰訊控股、PDD和特斯拉公司每年將從新的AI相關收入中共計創造1000億美元。該估計將產生5000億美元的收入和成本之間的差距。
What About Google Search?: Alphabet Inc's flagship Google Search made $175 billion in 2023, according to company filings. Google is the world's preeminent search engine and captures a gigantic market share.
那麼Google搜索呢？據公司申報文件顯示，Alphabet Inc旗下的Google搜索在2023年創造了1750億美元的收入。Google是全球最重要的搜索引擎，佔據着巨大的市場份額。
Therefore, generative AI must generate nearly 3.5 times the annual revenue of Google Search to turn a profit, a tall task indeed.
因此，生成式AI必須創造出近3.5倍Google搜索的年收入才能實現盈利，這確實是一項艱鉅的任務。
Market Implications: While some signs are encouraging that AI will eventually prove valuable to consumers, it is no sure thing that it will ever turn a profit over GPU stockpile costs.
雖然有一些跡象表明，AI最終將對消費者有所裨益，但它不能確定是否會在GPU芯片庫存成本上盈利。
In determining the industry's prospects, experts (such as Forbes' Peter Cohan) have noted the importance of an "AI killer," a use case that is a clear, highly desirable value-add for consumers. A historical example is spreadsheets during the personal computing revolution.
在確定該行業前景時，專家（例如福布斯雜誌的彼得·科漢）已經指出一個"AI殺手"的重要性，即明確的、高度渴望的給消費者帶來附加價值的用例。一個歷史性的例子是在個人計算機革命期間出現的電子表格。
No such feature exists yet, as customers currently seem reluctant to spend money on AI. It may be months or years before a killer use case exists, if ever. The release of OpenAI's long-awaited GPT-5 could serve as a potential catalyst if the release lives up to lofty expectations. Alternatively, AI's future use case may be far from our current expectations.
目前沒有這樣的特點，因爲目前的客戶似乎不願花錢購買AI。如果發佈的OpenAI旗下期待已久的GPt-5符合預期，那麼這可能會成爲潛在的催化劑。另外，AI未來的用例可能與我們當前的預期相差甚遠。
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Image: Pixabay
圖片：Pixabay
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。