KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY(1024.HK):INTENSIFIED COMPETITIONS ON SATURATED CORE BUSINESSES
KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY(1024.HK):INTENSIFIED COMPETITIONS ON SATURATED CORE BUSINESSES
We expect Kuaishou to report 2Q24 results at end August. We model 9% YoY total revenue in 2Q24 with 22% YoY online ad, 21% YoY eC GMV and -14% YoY streaming. GPM/ adj. NPM meets consensus at 54.8%/ 14.4%. We deem core domestic online ad and eCommerce are experiencing intensified competitions brought by dominant industry peers amid macro headwinds, along with impacted N-T streaming by industry-wise adjustments. We expect AI empowerments and monetisations on new initiatives will provide additional fuel but it largely depends on Co.'s strategies and executions. Maintain BUY but cut our TP to HK$60.0 on 13.0x 2024 adj. EPS, implying 0.4x 2024E PEG.
我們預計快手將於八月底發佈2Q24業績。我們預測2Q24總營業收入同比增長9％，其中在線廣告同比增長22％，電商總交易額同比增長21％，而流媒體同比下降14％。營業毛利率/調整後淨利潤佔比符合共識，分別爲54.8％/14.4％。我們認爲，隨着宏觀環境的影響和行業競爭加劇，核心國內在線廣告和電商正在與主要行業競爭對手激烈爭奪市場份額，同時受到行業調整對近期流媒體業務的影響。我們預計，AI將賦予新舉措權利並加速其商業化進程，但這很大程度上取決於公司的戰略和執行力。維持買入，但將目標價下調至60港元，2024年調整後每股收益爲13.0倍，暗示2024E PS爲0.4倍。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Intensified competitions on core segments; Eye on AI empowerments and new initiatives' monetisations. We expect Co. to continue gaining shares in domestic online ad and eCommerce markets in 2024 despite intensified competitions amid saturated eC online penetrations, macro conditions and peers' executions. Streaming continues to be negatively impacted by industry-wise adjustments in 2024 and is expected to stabilise from 2025E onwards. We see monetisations of new initiatives such as local services, 'Live streaming +' from various verticals and games could fuel Co.'s growth but will be largely subject to Co.'s commitments, strategies and executions. Therefore, we nudge down our 2024-2026E total revenue forecasts by 1% with largely unchanged online ad and streaming estimations while 2-3% cut on eC GMV. We currently do not assume material revenue contributions from new initiatives in 2024-2026E. We largely maintain our 2024-2026E GPM and bottom line estimations unchanged.
核心細分市場的競爭加劇; 着眼於AI賦能和新舉措的商業化。儘管在電子商務在線滲透率飽和、宏觀條件和同行業競爭對手的執行下，預計公司將在2024年繼續在國內在線廣告和電商市場中獲得份額的增加。流媒體將繼續受到行業調整的負面影響，但預計從2025年開始趨於穩定。我們認爲，新舉措的商業化，例如各種垂直領域的本地服務、“直播+”和遊戲等的盈利，可以推動公司的增長，但這很大程度上取決於公司的承諾、策略和執行力。因此，我們將2024-2026年總營收預測下調1％，其中對在線廣告和流媒體的估算基本不變，而對電子商務總交易額進行2-3％的下調。我們目前不假定公司在2024-2026年內從新舉措中獲得實質性的貢獻。我們基本上保持了2024-2026年的營業毛利和淨利潤估計不變。
2Q24 preview: Largely inline quarter. We expect user metrics to remain
2Q24預覽：整個季度符合預期。我們預計用戶指標將保持健康狀況，DAU同比增長4％至39100萬，DTSPU超過120分鐘。我們預測總營收同比增長9％，達到302億人民幣，比共識預期低1％。儘管在宏觀環境中，EC平台價格戰引發了電子商務市場的競爭加劇，但我們預計在線廣告收入將保持穩定增長，增長率爲22％。我們預計電子商務總交易額同比增長21％，比同行預期低3％。毛利率/調整後淨利潤佔比分別爲54.8％/14.4％，符合市場預期。
healthy with DAUs logging 4% YoY to 391m and DTSPU exceeding 120mins. We model total revenue to deliver 9% YoY to RMB30.2bn, -1% below consensus. We forecast solid online ad revenue at 22% YoY despite intensified competition of eCommerce due to price war initiated by traditional eC platforms amid macro headwinds. We estimate eC GMV to grow 21% YoY, -3% miss consensus. GPM/ adj. NPM of 54.8%/ 14.4%, both meet streets' expectation.
下行風險：1）監管；2）競爭加劇；3）宏觀復甦滯後於預期；4）策略執行無效；5）供應鏈和來源；6）海外營收無效；7）主要股東的股權分配。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Downside risks: 1) regulations; 2) intensified competition; 3) slower-than- expected macro recovery; 4) ineffective strategy executions; 5) content supply and source; 6) ineffective overseas monetization; 7) main shareholders' share distribution.
維持買入，但將目標價下調至60港元，基於13.0x（相對於更新的全球同行比較的15.0x）2024E非IFRS每股收益爲4.62港元（前者爲4.64港元），暗示2024E PS爲1.9倍，2024E PEG爲0.4倍。
Valuation
估值
Maintain BUY but cut our TP to HK$60.0 on 13.0x (vs. 15.0x previously derived from updated global peers comp) FY2024E Non-IFRS EPS of HK$4.62 (previously HK$4.64), implying 1.9x 2024E PS and 0.4x 2024E PEG.
維持買入評級，但將目標價下調至60港幣。當以13.0倍估值（之前的估值基於更新的全球同行業公司比較爲15.0倍）計算2024年非IFRS每股收益（EPS）爲4.62港幣（之前爲4.64港幣）時，可以得出2024年1.9倍市銷率和0.4倍市盈增長比率（PEG）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。