Mixed Picture For Fed: June Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, Wage Growth Slows
Mixed Picture For Fed: June Payrolls Rise More Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Ticks Up, Wage Growth Slows
The official June labor market report for the United States indicates mixed conditions, showing robust employment growth but a slowdown in wage increases, which may support expectations for upcoming interest rate cuts.
美國6月份官方勞工市場報告表明形勢複雜，顯示就業增長強勁但工資增長放緩，這可能支持未來降息的預期。
In June, the U.S. economy added 206,000 new jobs, a reduction from the downwardly revised 218,000 in May, according to data released Friday.
根據週五公佈的數據，6月份美國經濟新增了20.6萬個就業崗位，比5月份下調後的21.8萬個崗位減少，
June's Employment Situation: Key Highlights
6月份就業形勢：重點亮點
- Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000 last month, slowing down by 12,000 from May, but above economist expectations of 189,000, with predictions ranging from 150,000 to 237,000.
- The unemployment rate ticked slightly higher from 4% to 4.1% against expectations of an unchanged reading.
- Wage growth showed signs of cooling. Average hourly earnings advanced by 0.3% on month-on-month basis, decelerating from May's 0.4%, in line with expectations.
- Annually, average hourly earnings were 3.9% higher compared to June 2023, declining from May's 4.1% and matching expectations.
- 上個月非農業人口就業崗位增加了20.6萬個，比5月份減少了1.2萬個，但高於經濟學家預期的18.9萬個，預計範圍在15萬到23.7萬之間。
- 失業率從4%略微上升至4.1%，與預期的持平。
- 工資增長顯示出放緩的跡象。平均每小時收入環比增長0.3%，與5月份0.4%的增長放緩持平，符合預期。
- 年平均每小時收入較2023年6月增長3.9%，較5月份的4.1%下降，符合預期。
| June 2024 | Consensus | May 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | 206,000 | 189,000 | 218,000 (downwardly revised from 272,000) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4% | 4% |
| Average hourly earnings (m/m) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Average hourly earnings (y/y) | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
| 2024年6月 | 共識 | 2024年5月 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 非農業就業崗位 | 206,000 | 189,000 | 218,000 （從272,000下調） |
| 失業率 | 4.1% | 4% | 4% |
| 平均每小時收入（環比） | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 平均每小時收入（同比） | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% |
Market Reactions
市場反應
Before the June jobs report, traders had assigned a 73% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and factored in 52 basis points of cuts — implying two rate cuts — by the end of the year.
在6月份就業報告之前，交易員們認爲，聯邦儲備委員會在9月份降息的可能性有73%，並將在今年年底的基礎上削減52個點子，即意味着將降息兩次。
The cooler-than-expected labor market data increases the likelihood the Federal Reserve will reduce borrowing costs if inflation trends remain benign, to avoid an undue economic hurdle.
超出預期的勞工市場數據增加了聯邦儲備委員會在通貨膨脹趨勢保持溫和的情況下降低借貸成本的可能性，以避免不必要的經濟障礙。
The market reacted positively to the June jobs report. The dollar and Treasury yields fell, indicating growing confidence in imminent interest rate cuts. Futures on major U.S. indices rose in Friday's premarket trading.
市場對6月就業報告做出了積極反應。美元和國債收益率下跌，表明對即將到來的降息充滿信心。主要美國指數期貨在週五的盤前交易中上漲。
On Tuesday, ahead of the Fourth of July market closure, major equity averages, as tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), closed at record highs.
在7月4日市場關閉之前的週二，由Invesco QQQ Trust（NASDAQ：QQQ）和SPDR S＆P 500 ETF Trust（NYSE：SPY）跟蹤的主要股票均價創下歷史新高。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。