Kellanova (NYSE:K) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.1% If They Invested a Year Ago
Kellanova (NYSE:K) Investors Are Sitting on a Loss of 8.1% If They Invested a Year Ago
It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. Investors in Kellanova (NYSE:K) have tasted that bitter downside in the last year, as the share price dropped 17%. That falls noticeably short of the market return of around 25%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 12% in three years.
通過購買指數基金很容易匹配整體市場回報。活躍的投資者的目標是購買表現大大優於市場的股票，但在此過程中，他們面臨表現不佳的風險。去年，由於股價下跌了17％，凱拉諾瓦（紐約證券交易所代碼：K）的投資者已經嚐到了這種痛苦的下行空間。這明顯低於約25％的市場回報率。長期股東沒有遭受如此嚴重的損失，因爲該股在三年內下跌了12％的痛苦。
With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.
考慮到這一點，值得一看公司的基本面是否是長期業績的驅動力，或者是否存在一些差異。
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
引用巴菲特的話說：“船隻將在世界各地航行，但Flat Earth Society將蓬勃發展。市場上的價格和價值之間將繼續存在巨大差異...”評估公司情緒變化的一種有缺陷但合理的方法是將每股收益（EPS）與股價進行比較。
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the Kellanova share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 50%. It's quite possible that growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
在凱拉諾瓦股價下跌的不幸十二個月中，它的每股收益（EPS）實際上增長了50％。過去的增長預期很可能不合理。
It's fair to say that the share price does not seem to be reflecting the EPS growth. But we might find some different metrics explain the share price movements better.
可以公平地說，股價似乎並未反映每股收益的增長。但是我們可能會發現一些不同的指標可以更好地解釋股價走勢。
Vibrant companies don't usually cut their dividends, so the recent reduction might help explain why the Kellanova share price has been weak.
充滿活力的公司通常不會削減股息，因此最近的下調可能有助於解釋凱拉諾瓦股價疲軟的原因。
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
公司的收入和收益（隨着時間的推移）如下圖所示（點擊查看確切數字）。
Kellanova is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. You can see what analysts are predicting for Kellanova in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
Kellanova是一隻知名股票，分析師報道豐富，這表明未來增長有一定的可見性。您可以在這張未來利潤估計的交互式圖表中看到分析師對凱拉諾娃的預測。
What About Dividends?
分紅呢？
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Kellanova the TSR over the last 1 year was -8.1%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
除了衡量股價回報率外，投資者還應考慮股東總回報率（TSR）。股東總回報率是一種回報計算方法，它考慮了現金分紅的價值（假設收到的任何股息都經過再投資）以及任何貼現資本籌集和分拆的計算價值。可以說，股東總回報率更全面地描述了股票產生的回報。我們注意到，對於凱拉諾瓦而言，過去1年的股東總回報率爲-8.1％，好於上述股價回報率。因此，該公司支付的股息提高了 總 股東回報。
A Different Perspective
不同的視角
Kellanova shareholders are down 8.1% for the year (even including dividends), but the market itself is up 25%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 6%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Kellanova that you should be aware of.
凱拉諾瓦的股東今年下跌了8.1％（甚至包括股息），但市場本身上漲了25％。即使是優質股票的股價有時也會下跌，但我們希望在過於感興趣之前看到企業基本指標的改善。長期投資者不會那麼沮喪，因爲他們本可以在五年內每年賺6％。如果基本面數據繼續顯示長期可持續增長，那麼當前的拋售可能是一個值得考慮的機會。我發現將長期股價視爲業務績效的代表非常有趣。但是，要真正獲得見解，我們還需要考慮其他信息。例如，我們已經爲凱拉諾娃確定了兩個警告信號，你應該注意這些信號。
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.
當然，通過尋找其他地方，你可能會找到一筆不錯的投資。因此，請看一下我們預計收益將增加的這份免費公司名單。
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
請注意，本文引用的市場回報反映了目前在美國交易所交易的股票的市場加權平均回報。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
對這篇文章有反饋嗎？對內容感到擔憂？直接聯繫我們。 或者，給編輯團隊 (at) simplywallst.com 發送電子郵件。
Simply Wall St的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法根據歷史數據和分析師的預測提供評論，我們的文章無意作爲財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議，也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意，我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。簡而言之，華爾街沒有持有任何上述股票的頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
對這篇文章有反饋嗎？對內容感到擔憂？直接聯繫我們。 或者，發送電子郵件至 editorial-team@simplywallst.com
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。