Auto Sector Sees Strong Start But Forecasts Weaker Second Half
Auto Sector Sees Strong Start But Forecasts Weaker Second Half
RHB Investment Bank (RHB), in its 1Q24 Report Card today (2 July, Tuesday), stated that the auto sector's performance largely missed expectations, with two counters underperforming, one in line, and one surpassing projections.
RHB投資銀行（RHB）在其第1Q24季報(星期二，7月2日)中指出，汽車板塊的表現遠遠不及預期，有兩個計數器表現不佳，一個與預期相符，一個則超出預期。
RHB's top pick remains Bermaz Auto (BAUTO). Despite the strong YTD-May TIV, RHB anticipates a meaningful decline in TIV for 2024, likely in 2H, due to a lack of catalysts. BAUTO's FY24 results were in line, while Sime Darby and Tan Chong Motor fell short. MBM Resources exceeded expectations due to strong Perodua sales, and BAUTO recorded another year of record earnings with solid Mazda sales volumes. BAUTO also declared a special DPS of 7 sen and a 4QFY24 DPS of 4.75 sen, bringing its FY24 DPS to 26 sen with an 86% payout ratio.
RHB的首選仍是Bermaz Auto (BAUTO)。儘管YTD-May總銷售額強勁，RHB預計2024年銷售總量將顯著下降，可能在下半年，因爲缺乏催化劑。BAUTO的FY24成果與預期相符，而Sime Darby和Tan Chong Motor則表現不佳。MBM Resources由於Perodua銷售強勁而超出預期，而BAUTO的銷售量保持堅挺，Mazda銷售額持續高。BAUTO還宣佈特別DPS爲7仙，第四季度FY24 DPS爲4.75仙，使FY24 DPS達到26仙，股息支出比爲86%。
Major marques such as Perodua and Toyota have seen declines in their order backlogs. Perodua aims for sales of 330k units this year, similar to last year's 330,325 units. With a 20% YoY YTD volume growth, RHB believes this target is achievable and has revised its 2024 Perodua sales assumption to 330k units from 250k previously.
像Perodua和Toyota這樣的大品牌訂單積壓量也有所下降。Perodua今年銷售目標爲33萬輛，與去年的33萬325輛相似。由於YOY銷售量增長20%，RHB認爲這個目標是可以實現的，並將其對Perodua銷售額的2024年預測修訂爲33萬輛，而之前的預測是25萬輛。
RHB foresees a seasonally weaker 2Q24 TIV QoQ due to the shorter working quarters and public holidays. YoY, 2Q24 should post stronger sales volumes due to the low base and outstanding growth from Perodua. Post-1Q24 results, RHB revised its 2024 TIV forecast to 740k units from 625k units, mainly due to the upward revision of Perodua's forecasted volumes. Nonetheless, RHB expects a meaningful TIV decline in 2H24 as backlogs taper off and sales normalise.
由於工作季節較短和公共假期，RHB預計2Q24環比銷售額將季節性較弱。由於低基數和Perodua的出色增長，2Q24的YOY銷售額應該更高。在第1Q24發佈成果後，RHB將2024年銷售總量預測修訂爲74萬輛，而之前的預測是62.5萬輛，主要是由於Perodua的銷售量上行預期被上調。儘管如此，RHB預計在2H24銷售量回歸正常化時，銷售總量將顯着下降。
RHB maintains a NEUTRAL call on the sector, expecting a weaker TIV performance as sales volumes normalise in 2H24. BAUTO remains RHB's top pick due to its approximately 9% dividend yield and resilient car sales compared to other marques.
RHB對該板塊保持中立看法，預計下半年銷售量回歸正常化，整體表現將較弱。由於其約9%的股息收益率及相對於其他品牌的抗跌性，BAUTO仍是RHB的首要選擇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。