The projected fair value for STAAR Surgical is US$52.71 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of US$47.61 suggests STAAR Surgical is potentially trading close to its fair value
Our fair value estimate is 2.0% higher than STAAR Surgical's analyst price target of US$51.68
Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of STAAR Surgical Company (NASDAQ:STAA) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Crunching The Numbers
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$8.02m
US$21.5m
US$37.0m
US$51.0m
US$78.0m
US$99.5m
US$119.5m
US$137.1m
US$152.2m
US$165.1m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x2
Analyst x2
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 27.62%
Est @ 20.05%
Est @ 14.75%
Est @ 11.04%
Est @ 8.44%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 6.7%
US$7.5
US$18.9
US$30.5
US$39.3
US$56.4
US$67.4
US$75.9
US$81.6
US$84.9
US$86.3
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$549m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.7%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$3.9b÷ ( 1 + 6.7%)10= US$2.0b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$2.6b. In the final step we divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$47.6, the company appears about fair value at a 9.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
NasdaqGM:STAA Discounted Cash Flow June 30th 2024
Important Assumptions
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at STAAR Surgical as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.7%, which is based on a levered beta of 0.941. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for STAAR Surgical
Strength
Currently debt free.
Balance sheet summary for STAA.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Current share price is below our estimate of fair value.
Threat
Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.
What else are analysts forecasting for STAA?
Moving On:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For STAAR Surgical, there are three additional factors you should consider:
Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for STAAR Surgical that you should be aware of before investing here.
Future Earnings: How does STAA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGM every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
