What we liked:
• Improved durability: Logo retention rate improved 4ppt to 80%, existing customer ARR mix increased to 80% and average module adoption increased from 1.6 to 1.8, all point to a more durable revenue growth in the future. Net dollar retention rate stabilized at 106%.
• ARR growth: CoreHR was up 31%YoY, performance management was up 23%YoY and e-learning was up 68%YoY. Beisen expects e-learning to sustain rapid growth, as it started to sell it as an independent module recently.
• GPM improvements: Beisen's non-GAAP GPM improved by 8.6ppt to 64%, mainly driven by software margin improving to 82% as well as normalization of service revenue margin.
• Bottom line beat: FY24 reported normalized net loss and cash outflow are better than MSe on cost control.
• Outlook: FY25 guidance of 15% revenue growth, slightly better than 13.8% in FY24, and operating cash flow turnaround. Beisen targets 25% market share in China HCM SaaS market in three year vs ~15% in 2023.
What we are monitoring:
• Subdued recruitment demand: The result implied that recruitment related ARR growth remained a drag on the firm's blended ARR against the current macro backdrop, although recruitment is becoming smaller in its ARR pie. Based on our updated forecast, Beisen is currently trading at 3.5x FY25e P/S (slightly below peer Kingdee of 3.8x), but only 1.7x FY25 EV/sales (vs. Kingdee of 3.3x), suggesting no credit to Beisen's Rmb1.72bn net cash. We believe the cash flow turnaround in FY25 will bring more confidence to the market. Stay OW.
我們喜歡什麼:
• 提高耐久性:徽標保留率提高了4個百分點至80%,現有客戶的ARR組合增加到80%,平均模塊採用率從1.6增加到1.8,所有這些都表明未來收入增長將更加持久。淨美元留存率穩定在106%。
• ARR增長:CoreHR同比增長31%,績效管理同比增長23%,電子學習同比增長68%。Beisen預計電子學習將保持快速增長,因爲它最近開始將其作爲獨立模塊出售。
• GPM改善:北森的非公認會計准則GPM增長了8.6個百分點至64%,這主要是由於軟件利潤率提高至82%以及服務收入利潤率的正常化。
• 底線:24財年報告的正常淨虧損和現金流出在成本控制方面優於MSe。
• 展望:25財年預期收入增長15%,略好於24財年的13.8%,運營現金流將迎來轉機。北森的目標是在三年內在中國HCM SaaS市場佔有25%的市場份額,而2023年約爲15%。
我們關注什麼:
• 招聘需求疲軟:結果表明,儘管招聘人數在當前的宏觀背景下,與招聘相關的ARR增長仍然拖累了公司的混合ARR,但招聘相關的ARR增長仍然拖累了該公司的混合ARR。根據我們最新的預測,北森目前的交易價格爲25財年的3.5倍(略低於同行金蝶的3.8倍),但僅爲25財年電動汽車/銷售額的1.7倍(金蝶爲3.3倍),這表明北森17.2億元人民幣的淨現金不歸功於北森的人民幣17.2億元淨現金。我們認爲,25財年的現金流轉將爲市場帶來更大的信心。保持低水平。