'People With A Lot Of Money Could Influence The Election:' Interactive Brokers' Thomas Peterffy Reveals Why CFTC Will Not Allow Election-Related Contracts
'People With A Lot Of Money Could Influence The Election:' Interactive Brokers' Thomas Peterffy Reveals Why CFTC Will Not Allow Election-Related Contracts
Interactive Brokers' (NASDAQ:IBKR) Thomas Peterffy has revealed that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will not permit the listing of election-related contracts on their soon-to-launch prediction market, "ForecastEx."
互動經紀人（NASDAQ:IBKR）的托馬斯·佩得菲透露，商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）將不允許將與選舉相關的合同列入他們即將推出的預測市場“ForecastEx”。
What Happened: On Wednesday, Peterffy, the founder of Interactive Brokers, revealed during CNBC's "Last Call" that the CFTC will not allow to list election-related contracts on their upcoming prediction market.
發生了什麼事：週三，互動經紀人的創始人彼得菲（Peterffy）在CNBC的“Last Call”節目上透露，CFTC將不允許在他們即將推出的預測市場上列出與選舉相關的合同。
"They think that it may influence the election. That people with a lot of money could influence the election by deriving the contract to an unreasonable level."
“他們認爲它可能會影響選舉。那些有很多錢的人可能會通過將合同派生到不合理的水平來影響選舉。”
Peterffy's comment appears after Interactive Brokers 's wholly owned subsidiary ForecastEx LLC received the CFTC's nod to operate a contract market and derivative clearing organization.
彼得菲的評論出現在Interactive Brokers的全資子公司ForecastEx LLC獲得CFTC的允許操作合同市場和衍生品清算組織之後。
As per a press release, ForecastEx, a prediction market, is scheduled to commence operations on July 8 and will offer contracts that enable investors to speculate on the likelihood of specific economic and climate indicators.
根據新聞稿，預測市場ForecastEx計劃在7月8日開始運營，並將提供合同，使投資者可以投機特定經濟和氣候指標的可能性。
Contracts on ForecastEx aim to provide a consensus view on controversial issues and hedge economic exposure.
ForecastEx的合同旨在提供有爭議問題的共識，並對經濟敞口進行對沖。
"Unfortunately, the @CFTC will not allow us to list an election-related contract," says @IBKR's Thomas Peterffy on the soon-to-launch prediction market "ForecastEx". "They think that it may influence the election. That people with a lot of money could influence the election." pic.twitter.com/EDOnu8Exwk
— Last Call (@LastCallCNBC) June 27, 2024
“不幸的是，@CFTC不會允許我們列出與選舉有關的合同，”@IBKR的托馬斯·佩得菲在即將推出的預測市場“ForecastEx”上說。“他們認爲它可能會影響選舉。那些有很多錢的人可能會通過將合同派生到不合理的水平來影響選舉。”
——CNBC的“Last Call”（@LastCallCNBC）2024年6月27日
Why It Matters: In May, the CFTC voted to formally reject event contracts based on political activity. This decision was aimed at protecting U.S. customers from platforms that enable such trading, following a prolonged legal battle with firms offering these services.
爲什麼它很重要：5月份，CFTC投票正式拒絕了基於政治活動的事件合同。此決定旨在保護美國客戶免受從事這種交易的平台的影響，這是在與提供這些服務的公司長期的法律鬥爭之後做出的。
Prediction platforms such as PredictIt, Polymarket, Zeitgeist, and Kalshi, which are popular in crypto circles, provide users the chance to buy contracts on actual event outcomes, including elections and policy developments. The proposed rule would prohibit contracts on political contests, awards contests, and game outcomes for U.S.-regulated companies. The proposal still needs to pass through a 60-day public comment period and a process to approve a final rule.
預測平台（如PredictIt、Polymarket、Zeitgeist和Kalshi）在加密貨幣領域很受歡迎，它們爲用戶提供了購買與實際事件結果相關的合同的機會，包括選舉和政策制定。擬議的規則將禁止美國監管公司的政治競選、獎項競賽和遊戲結果合同。該提案仍需要通過60天的公開評論期和批准最終規則的過程。
Just days after the CFTC's vote, Polymarket secured $70 million in funding in a round led by billionaire investor Peter Thiel's Founders Fund and included other notable backers such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin.
就在CFTC投票後的幾天，Polymarket獲得了7000萬美元的融資，由億萬富翁投資者彼得·蒂爾的創業基金領投，還包括以太坊聯合創始人維塔利克·布特林等其他知名投資者。
Recently, Goldman Sachs revised its year-end target for the S&P 500 Index to 5,600 from the previous 5,200. Analysts pointed out that the U.S. election poses a significant risk to the S&P 500 level, with increased index volatility during the election period. However, following the election, volatility typically decreases and the S&P 500 index tends to recover, often reaching an even higher level.
最近，高盛將標普500指數的年終目標從之前的5200上調至5600。分析師指出，美國大選對標普500指數構成了重大風險，在選舉期間，指數波動性增加。然而，選舉後，波動性通常會降低，標普500指數往往會恢復，並經常達到更高的水平。
Price Action: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 Index, gained 15.42% so far this year. At the time of writing, it was trading 0.14% lower at $544.73 after it closed at $545.5 on Wednesday, according to Benzinga Pro.
價格行動：追蹤標普500指數的SPDR標普500 ETF信託基金（紐交所：SPY）今年迄今已上漲15.42%。在撰寫本文時，它正在以544.73美元的價格交易，較週三收盤價545.5美元略有下跌，據Benzinga Pro報道。
Image via MidJourney
圖片由MidJourney提供
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
本報道使用Benzinga Neuro生成，並由Pooja Rajkumari編輯
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。