Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Set To Drop To 38-Month Low: 'This Could Provide The Impetus For Another Rally To Fresh Highs'
Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Set To Drop To 38-Month Low: 'This Could Provide The Impetus For Another Rally To Fresh Highs'
In April, the headline PCE inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index also matched expectations with a 2.8% year-on-year increase, though it came in slightly lower than monthly estimates (0.2% vs. 0.3%).Traders are preparing for the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data, widely regarded as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, scheduled for Friday.
交易員正在準備參考個人消費支出（PCE）物價指數數據的發佈，該數據被廣泛認爲是聯儲局的首選通脹衡量標準，計劃於週五發佈。
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release this key inflation indicator alongside data on personal income and personal spending.
美國經濟分析局將與個人收入和個人支出數據一起發佈這個關鍵的通脹指標。
The key focus for investors is whether the Fed's inflation gauge has decreased as economists currently predict. A drop would bolster confidence in efforts to steer price pressures toward the 2% target and strengthen expectations for upcoming interest rate cuts.
投資者的主要關注點是聯儲局的通脹指標是否下降，就像經濟學家目前預測的那樣。下降將增強對價格壓力朝着2%的目標調整的信心，加強對即將到來的利率下調的預期。
May's PCE Price Index Report: What Economists Expect
五月份的PCE物價指數報告：經濟學家的預期
- The PCE price index is expected to slow from 2.7% year-on-year in April to 2.6% year-on-year in May, as estimates gathered by Econoday show. The consensus range is between 2.5% and 2.7%.
- On a monthly basis, the PCE price index is seen advancing at a 0.1% pace, slowing down from the previous 0.3%.
- The core PCE price index is set to ease from 2.8% to 2.6% year-on-year in May, which could mark the lowest level since March 2021.
- On a monthly basis, the core PCE price index is predicted to slow from 0.2% to 0.1%.
- 據Econoday的估計顯示，PCE物價指數預計從4月的同比上升2.7％減緩至5月的同比上升2.6％。共識區間介於2.5％和2.7％之間。
- 從月度基礎上，PCE物價指數看來會以0.1％的速度增長，相比之前的0.3％會放緩。
- 核心PCE物價指數預計將從4月的同比上升2.8％降至5月的同比上升2.6％，這可能是自2021年3月以來的最低水平。
- 從月度基礎上，核心PCE物價指數被預測爲從0.2％減緩至0.1％。
Previous Report And Economist Views
先前的報告和經濟學家的觀點
In April, the headline PCE inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% year-on-year. The core PCE price index also matched expectations with a 2.8% year-on-year increase, though it came in slightly lower than monthly estimates (0.2% vs. 0.3%).
4月份，PCE總體通脹率保持在同比上升2.7％。核心PCE物價指數也符合預期，同比上漲2.8％，儘管略低於月度估計（0.2％ vs 0.3％）。
In its June economic projections, the Fed revised the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation forecast for 2024 from 2.4% to 2.6% and for 2025 from 2.2% to 2.3%. Expectations for 2026 and the longer term remained unchanged. The forecast for core PCE inflation also increased from 2.6% to 2.8% in 2024 and from 2.2% to 2.3% in 2025.
在其6月的經濟預測中，聯儲局將2024年的個人消費支出（PCE）通脹預測從2.4％修訂爲2.6％，將2025年的預測從2.2％修改爲2.3％。2026年和長期的預期保持不變。核心PCE通脹的預測也從2024年的2.6％增加到2024年2.8％，從2025年的2.2％增加到2025年2.3％。
Bank of America economist Michael Gapen expects core PCE inflation to rise by only 0.16% month-on-month in May (down from 0.3% previously) and to decrease a tenth to 2.6% year-on-year.
美國銀行經濟學家Michael Gapen預計，5月份核心PCE物價指數月度增長僅爲0.16％（較之前的0.3％降低），同比下降0.1％至2.6％。
"This supports our view that disinflation is the most likely path forward, making a sustained reacceleration in inflation unlikely," Gapen added.
Gapen補充道：“這支持了我們認爲非通貨膨脹是最有可能的前進道路，這使得物價上漲持續加速的可能性較小。”
Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, predicts the overall headline PCE inflation rate will fall to 2.4% year-on-year. "In annual terms, PCE inflation likely slowed to the lowest rate since inflation began skyrocketing in early 2021." When excluding food and energy items, Comerica Bank sees core PCE inflation falling to 2.6%.
聯信銀行的首席經濟學家Bill Adams預計，總體PCE通脹率將降至同比上升2.4％。“以年度計算，PCE通脹可能會降至自2021年初通脹開始飆升以來的最低水平。”除去食品和能源項目的核心PCE通脹被認爲會下降至2.6%。
"We expect the Fed's preferred inflation gauge will continue to show progress toward its 2.0% target," Wall Street veteran investor Ed Yardeni, stated.
“我們預計聯儲局喜愛的通脹計量標誌仍將繼續朝着其2.0％的目標取得進展，”華爾街資深投資者Ed Yardeni說。
"Bulls will be hoping for further evidence that inflation is continuing to soften. If so, this could provide the impetus for another rally to fresh highs," David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said.
“牛市將希望有進一步證據表明通貨膨脹繼續軟化。如果是這樣，這可能爲另一次創新高的反彈提供動力，”Trade Nation的高級市場分析師David Morrison表示。
On Wednesday, the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), traded just 1.4 percentage points below its record high set last week, while the S&P 500, monitored through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was less than a percentage point away from its peak.
上週創紀錄高點的納斯達克100指數納入納斯達克100ETF-Insvesco QQQ Trust（納斯達克股票代碼：QQQ）在週三交易時僅比其創紀錄高點低1.4個百分點，而由SPDR S＆P 500 ETF Trust（NYSE：SPY）監測的標普500指數距離峯值不到一個百分點。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。