Bond Traders Expect Much Deeper Interest Rate Cuts Than Projected
Bond Traders Expect Much Deeper Interest Rate Cuts Than Projected
Bond traders predict that the Federal Reserve's interest-rate cuts will go well beyond what the agency has forecast for the next nine months.
債券交易員預測聯儲局的利率削減將遠遠超出機構預測的未來九個月的範圍。
Traders in the U.S. rates options market expect a much higher 3 percentage points worth of cuts by March. This dwarfs the Fed's recent projections of just 25 basis points of reductions by the end of 2024 and a total 125-basis-point cut by the end of next year, Bloomberg reported.
美國利率期權市場的交易員預計，到3月份將會降低3個百分點的基準點。這遠遠超過聯儲局最近的預測，即到2024年底僅降低25個點子，到明年底總共削減125點子，彭博社報道。
Options-market activity related to the secured overnight financing rate over the past three sessions show a significant upside if the Fed reduced its key rate by 300 basis points to 2.25% by next year's first quarter.
過去三個交易日與隔夜擔保融資利率有關的期權市場活動顯示，如果聯儲局在明年第一季度將其主要利率降低300個點子至2.25％，則將出現相當大的上行空間。
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This scenario would allow traders to hedge other investments, but it is an unlikely outcome unless the U.S. economy plummets into recession.
這種情況將允許交易員對其他投資進行套期保值，但除非美國經濟陷入衰退，否則這是不太可能發生的結果。
Investors have been keeping a close eye on economic data and remarks by Fed officials for any clues on the timing of eventual Fed easing while hedging against extreme rate cuts and other tail-risk outcomes.
投資者一直密切關注經濟數據和聯儲局官員的言論，以獲取有關最終聯儲局寬鬆的時機的線索，同時對極端利率削減和其他尾部風險結果進行保值。
Price Action: iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:AGG) slipped 0.36% by early-afternoon trading on Wednesday, while Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:BND) declined 0.40%. Vanguard Total International Bond ETF (BNDX) slid 0.43%.
價格行動：iShares核心美國綜合債券ETF（紐交所：AGG）週三早盤交易下跌0.36％，而Vanguard總債券市場ETF（納斯達克：BND）下跌0.40％，Vanguard總國際債券ETF（BNDX）跌0.43％。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。