CHINA GAS HOLDINGS(384.HK):DIVIDEND YIELD STILL APPEALING DESPITE FY24 EARNINGS MISS
CHINA GAS HOLDINGS(384.HK):DIVIDEND YIELD STILL APPEALING DESPITE FY24 EARNINGS MISS
The core earnings of China Gas slipped 4% YoY to HK$3,966m in FY24, missing its guidance of 5-10% YoY growth. The discrepancy mainly came from the lower-than-expected dollar margin. Looking ahead, we expect its core earnings to grow 25% YoY in FY25 on further improvement in dollar margin and decent growth in gas sales volume and value-added services. We cut our FY25-26 earnings forecasts by 6-8%. Despite this, we reiterate our BUY call as we expect the company to keep its DPS at least at HK$0.50 in the next few years, which translates into a dividend yield of 7%. We lower our target price to HK$7.85.
中國燃氣的核心收益在FY24下滑了4%，達到了3,966百萬港元，未達到其5-10%年同比增長的指引。這個差額主要來自於低於預期的美元毛利率。展望未來，我們預計其核心收益在FY25將同比增長25%，因爲美元毛利率進一步提高，燃氣銷量和增值服務的增長良好。我們將FY25-26年的盈利預測下調了6-8%。儘管如此，我們重申買入評級，因爲我們預計該公司在未來幾年內至少會保持每股港元0.50的股息派發，這相當於7%的股息收益率。我們將目標價下調至7.85港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
The net profit of China Gas fell 26% YoY to HK$3,185m in FY24, 27% below our forecast. The miss was mainly due to the unexpected HK$685m impairment against accounts receivable and contract assets. On top of this, the lower-than- expected dollar margin and lower-than-expected earnings of value-added services and LPG sales all resulted in lower earnings.
中國燃氣的淨利潤在FY24年同比下降了26%，達到了3,185百萬港元，低於我們的預期27%。這個差距主要是由於意外的6.85億港元應收賬款和合同資產減值。加之低於預期的美元毛利率和增值服務和液化石油氣銷售的收益低於預期，所有這些都導致了收益的下降。
While the company's dollar margin improved from RMB0.42/m3 in FY23 to RMB0.50/m3 in FY24, it was still below its guidance of RMB0.52/m3. The miss was mainly because of the insufficient low cost gas for its residential clients. The coverage of low cost contract volume for residential client was just 77% of its full-year demand. In addition, the progress in passing on the price increase of residential gas was slower-than-expected. Up to the end of FY24, projects accounting for only 55% of its residential gas sales have completed the passing on of higher upstream gas price.
雖然公司的美元毛利率從FY23的RMB 0.42/m3 提高到FY24年的RMB 0.50/m3，但仍低於其指引的RMB 0.52/m3。這個差距主要是由於其住宅客戶的低成本燃氣不足。住宅客戶低成本合同量覆蓋全年需求的僅爲77%。此外，通過住宅燃氣價格上漲的進展比預期要慢。截至FY24年底，僅佔其住宅燃氣銷售量55%的項目已完成了西部燃氣價格的上漲。
In terms of gas sales volume, the company's retail gas sales grew 2% YoY in FY24, in line with its guidance of low single-digit growth.
公司的零售燃氣銷售量在FY24年同比增長了2%，符合其低個位數增長的指引。
The operating profit of the value-added services grew 6% YoY. While it was below its guidance of 10% YoY growth, the miss mainly came from the depreciation of RMB against HK$.
增值服務的營業利潤同比增長6%。儘管低於其10%年同比增長的指引，但這個差距主要來自於人民幣對港元的折舊。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Further miss in dollar margin.
美元毛利率進一步下降。
Lower-than-expected growth for value-added services.
增值服務的增長低於預期。
Valuation
估值
We lower our DCF valuation and hence target price from HK$8.40 to HK$7.85 to reflect the cuts in our earnings forecasts and the small increase in WACC (from 6.9% to 7.0%). Our new target price is equal to 8.5x FY25 P/E.
我們將折現現金流估值和目標價從8.40港元下調至7.85港元，以反映我們盈利預測的下調和WACC的小幅上漲(從6.9%上漲到7.0%)。我們的新目標價相當於FY25的PE（市盈率）的8.5倍。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。