These 4 Measures Indicate That Greenbrier Companies (NYSE:GBX) Is Using Debt Extensively
These 4 Measures Indicate That Greenbrier Companies (NYSE:GBX) Is Using Debt Extensively
The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (NYSE:GBX) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)的Charlie Munger支持的外部基金經理Li Lu明確表示,“最大的投資風險不是價格波動,而是你是否會遭受永久性資本損失。” 當我們考慮一家公司的風險時,我們總是喜歡看看它的債務利用率,因爲債務超載可能會導致破產。我們注意到,格林布賴爾(The Greenbrier Companies, Inc.)(紐交所:GBX)確實在其資產負債表上有負債。但是這個負債是否令股東擔憂呢?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
債務何時有危險?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
當一個企業無法輕鬆地通過自由現金流或以合理價格籌集資金來履行債務和其他負債時,債務和其他負債就會成爲企業的風險。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制企業。然而,一種更常見(但仍然昂貴)的情況是,一家公司必須以廉價的股票價格稀釋股東,以控制債務。當然,很多公司使用債務來資助業務增長,沒有任何負面後果。當我們考慮一家公司如何使用債務時,我們首先關注現金和債務的總體情況。
How Much Debt Does Greenbrier Companies Carry?
格林布賴爾公司(Greenbrier Companies)負債情況如何?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of February 2024 Greenbrier Companies had US$1.72b of debt, an increase on US$1.64b, over one year. On the flip side, it has US$284.1m in cash leading to net debt of about US$1.44b.
您可以點擊下面的圖形查看歷史數據,但它顯示格林布賴爾公司截至2024年2月有17.2億美元的債務,較去年增加了1.64億美元。另一方面,它有2.841億美元的現金,導致淨債務約爲14.4億美元。
![debt-equity-history-analysis](https://newsfile.futunn.com/public/NN-PersistNewsContentImage/7781/20240622/0-0dd0b02c2681f69d3737435d58bf76f1-0-32f6b18e0116cfd987a40743267a6d5a.png/big)
How Healthy Is Greenbrier Companies' Balance Sheet?
格林布賴爾公司的資產負債表看起來怎麼樣?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Greenbrier Companies had liabilities of US$885.9m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.65b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$284.1m and US$502.6m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$1.75b.
我們可以從最近的資產負債表中看到,格林布賴爾公司在一年內應付的負債爲8.859億美元,超過一年的負債爲16.5億美元。另一方面,它的現金爲2.841億美元,一年內應收賬款爲5.026億美元。因此,它的負債超過了其現金和(短期的)應收賬款的總額,約爲17.5億美元。
Given this deficit is actually higher than the company's market capitalization of US$1.58b, we think shareholders really should watch Greenbrier Companies's debt levels, like a parent watching their child ride a bike for the first time. Hypothetically, extremely heavy dilution would be required if the company were forced to pay down its liabilities by raising capital at the current share price.
考慮到這個赤字實際上比公司市值158億美元還要高,我們認爲股東們真的應該像家長看孩子第一次騎自行車一樣關注格林布賴爾公司的債務水平。假設公司被迫以當前股價籌集資本來償還其債務,那麼極端的股權稀釋是必需的。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了對公司的債務相對於其收益進行規模適應,我們計算其淨債務與利息、稅、折舊和攤銷前收益(EBITDA)之比及其稅前收益(EBIT)與利息支出之比(利息保障倍數)。因此,我們既考慮到不包括折舊和攤銷費用在內的收益,又包括折舊和攤銷費用的收益相對於債務。
Greenbrier Companies's debt is 4.0 times its EBITDA, and its EBIT cover its interest expense 3.0 times over. Taken together this implies that, while we wouldn't want to see debt levels rise, we think it can handle its current leverage. The good news is that Greenbrier Companies grew its EBIT a smooth 69% over the last twelve months. Like the milk of human kindness that sort of growth increases resilience, making the company more capable of managing debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Greenbrier Companies can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
格林布賴爾公司的債務是其息稅前利潤(EBITDA)的4.0倍,而其息稅前利潤(EBIT)卻覆蓋了其利息支出的3.0倍。總的來說,這意味着雖然我們不希望看到債務水平上升,但我們認爲它能夠處理其當前的槓桿比率。好消息是,過去十二個月中,格林布賴爾公司的EBIT平穩增長了69%。像人類仁慈之乳一樣,這種增長增強了韌性,使公司更有能力管理債務。當分析債務水平時,資產負債表顯然是需要首先關注的地方。但最終,業務未來的盈利能力將決定格林布賴爾公司是否能夠隨着時間推移加強其資產負債表。所以,如果你關注未來,可以查看此免費報告,其中顯示了分析師對利潤的預測。
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Greenbrier Companies saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
最後,一家公司只能用冰冷的現金而不是會計利潤來償還債務。因此,值得檢查它的EBIT有多少是由自由現金流支持的。在過去的三年中,格林布賴爾公司的自由現金流總額相當龐大,呈現負增長。儘管投資者毫無疑問預計這種情況會在不久的將來發生逆轉,但這顯然意味着它的債務使用更加具有風險性。
Our View
我們的觀點
Mulling over Greenbrier Companies's attempt at converting EBIT to free cash flow, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the bigger picture, it seems clear to us that Greenbrier Companies's use of debt is creating risks for the company. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 3 warning signs for Greenbrier Companies (1 doesn't sit too well with us) you should be aware of.
考慮到格林布賴爾公司試圖將EBIT轉化爲自由現金流的嘗試,我們肯定不是很熱情。但好消息是,其EBIT增長率是一個好兆頭,讓我們更加樂觀。從更大的範圍來看,對我們來說似乎很明顯,即格林布賴爾公司的債務使用正在爲該公司帶來風險。如果一切順利,這可能會有所回報,但這種債務的下行風險則更大。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但是最終,每家公司都包含超出資產負債表範圍的風險。例如,我們已經識別出格林布賴爾公司的3個警示信號(1個並不令我們滿意),您應該了解這些風險。
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
總的來說,專注於沒有淨債務的公司往往更好。您可以訪問我們的特別列表,其中包含這些公司(所有這些公司都有盈利增長的記錄)。這是免費的。
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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這篇文章是Simply Wall St的一般性文章。我們根據歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,只使用公正的方法論,我們的文章並不意味着提供任何金融建議。文章不構成買賣任何股票的建議,也不考慮您的目標或您的財務狀況。我們的目標是帶給您基本數據驅動的長期關注分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St沒有任何股票頭寸。
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。