Wolverine World Wide's estimated fair value is US$21.80 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Wolverine World Wide is estimated to be 36% undervalued based on current share price of US$13.90
Our fair value estimate is 53% higher than Wolverine World Wide's analyst price target of US$14.29
In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of Wolverine World Wide, Inc. (NYSE:WWW) by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!
We generally believe that a company's value is the present value of all of the cash it will generate in the future. However, a DCF is just one valuation metric among many, and it is not without flaws. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
The Calculation
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$98.8m
US$117.9m
US$150.7m
US$151.6m
US$153.4m
US$155.8m
US$158.5m
US$161.6m
US$165.0m
US$168.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x3
Analyst x2
Est @ 0.65%
Est @ 1.17%
Est @ 1.53%
Est @ 1.79%
Est @ 1.96%
Est @ 2.09%
Est @ 2.18%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10%
US$89.8
US$97.3
US$113
US$103
US$95.1
US$87.7
US$81.1
US$75.2
US$69.7
US$64.8
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$877m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.4%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.3b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= US$865m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$13.9, the company appears quite undervalued at a 36% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NYSE:WWW Discounted Cash Flow June 21st 2024
The Assumptions
Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Wolverine World Wide as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.666. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Wolverine World Wide
Strength
Debt is well covered by cash flow.
Balance sheet summary for WWW.
Weakness
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Luxury market.
Opportunity
Expected to breakeven next year.
Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.
Threat
Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.
Revenue is forecast to decrease over the next 2 years.
See WWW's dividend history.
Looking Ahead:
Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Wolverine World Wide, we've compiled three further aspects you should explore:
Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Wolverine World Wide (at least 1 which makes us a bit uncomfortable) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
Management:Have insiders been ramping up their shares to take advantage of the market's sentiment for WWW's future outlook? Check out our management and board analysis with insights on CEO compensation and governance factors.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com
