HUAIBEI MINING HOLDINGS(600985):QUALITY PRIME COKING COAL PROVIDER GROWING STEADILY; PRIME COKING COAL VALUE LIKELY TO RISE
HUAIBEI MINING HOLDINGS(600985):QUALITY PRIME COKING COAL PROVIDER GROWING STEADILY; PRIME COKING COAL VALUE LIKELY TO RISE
Investment positives
投資利好因素
We initiate coverage on Huaibei Mining Holdings Co., Ltd. (Huaibei Mining) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of Rmb23.00, implying 10x 2024e and 9x 2025e P/E.
我們開始對淮北礦業控股有限公司（淮北礦業）進行報道，評級跑贏大盤，目標價爲23.00元人民幣，這意味着2024年市盈率爲10倍，2025年市盈率爲9倍。
Why an OUTPERFORM rating?
爲什麼評級跑贏大盤？
Prime coking coal: A tight balance between supply and demand; supply side may lack growth momentum in the medium and long
優質煉焦煤：供需之間的緊張平衡；供應方可能缺乏中長期增長動力
term. We anticipate stable hot metal output in China in the near term, as factories in Shanxi have accelerated production resumption since May and their production capacity increased QoQ in 2-3Q24. However, we think the supply and demand dynamics of coking coal throughout 2024 will still be tight. Given the potential recovery in steel demand from the construction sector in 2H24, we expect prime coking coal prices to be relatively high.
術語。我們預計，短期內中國的鐵水產量將保持穩定，因爲山西的工廠自5月以來加快了恢復生產，而且 2-3Q24 的產能環比有所增加。但是，我們認爲，整個2024年，煉焦煤的供需動態仍將緊張。鑑於建築業的鋼鐵需求可能在24年下半年復甦，我們預計優質煉焦煤價格將相對較高。
The growth in coking coal supply in China may lack momentum in the medium and long term, as existing domestic coal mines may only support less than 30 years of mining and most new capacity and mines approved for expanding capacity are related to thermal coal. Regarding coal imports, we foresee limited growth upside and unstable supply due to geopolitical factors. The sharp decline in quality coal imported from Australia in recent years has caused structural and regional shortages of coking coal in China. Consequently, the supply of quality prime coking coal in China has further tightened and resource scarcity has presented a formidable constraint.
從中長期來看，中國煉焦煤供應的增長可能缺乏動力，因爲現有的國內煤礦只能支持不到30年的開採，而且大多數獲准擴大產能的新產能和礦山都與動力煤有關。關於煤炭進口，我們預計，由於地緣政治因素，上行增長有限，供應不穩定。近年來，從澳大利亞進口的優質煤炭急劇下降，導致中國煉焦煤的結構性和區域性短缺。因此，中國優質煉焦煤的供應進一步收緊，資源短缺構成了巨大的制約因素。
The proportion of prime coking coal will likely increase amid blast furnace- based high-quality production. In our view, prices of prime coking coal will likely remain high, and the price spread between prime coking coal and coal blending will likely widen.
在以高爐爲基礎的高質量生產中，優質煉焦煤的比例可能會增加。我們認爲，優質煉焦煤的價格可能會保持高位，優質煉焦煤和混煤之間的價格差距可能會擴大。
Huaibei Mining has advantages in resource reserves, coal quality, and locations of mines; new mines to contribute additional capacity.
淮北礦業在資源儲量、煤炭質量和礦山位置方面具有優勢；新礦山將提供額外的產能。
The firm is directly managed by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of Anhui Province. It has 17 in-service mines in Huaibei area (the north of Anhui province), and these mines are close to large steel mills and power plants in eastern China. In 2023, the firm had 2.05bnt of mineable resources and 35.85mnt of approved production capacity. Its coal mines, with around 57 mining years, produced 21.97mnt of commercial coal in 2023. Specifically, bituminous coal accounted for 52% of the firm's coal output, and 70% of the bituminous coal were quality prime coking coal and fat coal.
該公司由安徽省國有資產監督管理委員會直接管理。它在淮北地區（安徽省北部）有17個在役礦山，這些礦山靠近中國東部的大型鋼廠和發電廠。2023年，該公司擁有20.5億噸的可開採資源和35.85億噸的批准產能。其煤礦有大約57年的採礦年份，在2023年生產了21.97億噸商用煤炭。具體而言，煙煤佔該公司煤炭產量的52％，70％的煙煤是優質的優質煉焦煤和肥煤。
Huaibei Mining commenced operation of its Xinhu coal mine with capacity of 3mnt in 2021. It plans to put 8mnt of 6,000kcal thermal coal capacity at the Taohutu mine in Inner Mongolia into operation at end-2025, aiming to ensure quality coal supply in the medium and long term.
淮北礦業於2021年開始運營其新湖煤礦，產能爲300萬英鎊。它計劃在2025年底將內蒙古陶胡圖礦的800萬千卡動力煤產能投入運營，旨在確保中長期的優質煤炭供應。
In 2023, net operating cash flow of the firm was Rmb13bn, and financial assets, cash, and bank balances were Rmb8.6bn. Its liability-to-asset ratio was 52% and dividend payout ratio was 43% in 2023, and return on equity (ROE) averaged 23% in the past five years. The firm will likely increase dividends after its Taohutu project comes online at end-2025.
2023年，該公司的淨運營現金流爲130億元人民幣，金融資產、現金和銀行餘額爲86億元人民幣。2023年，其負債與資產比率爲52％，股息支付率爲43％，在過去五年中，股本回報率（ROE）平均爲23％。該公司可能會在其Taohutu項目於2025年底上線後增加股息。
We expect coal sales volume to increase and prices to remain stable in 2024-2026; losses from coal chemical business to decline YoY.
我們預計，2024-2026年煤炭銷量將增加，價格將保持穩定；煤化工業務的虧損將同比下降。
Production and sales volume at the Xinhu mine were dampened in 2H23 by production suspension and regional safety supervision. The Xinhu mine is likely to resume production in 3Q24 and the new production capacity at Yuandian Erkuang mine has been unleased. Therefore, we expect the firm's coal output to increase moderately in 2024, to approach 24mnt in 2025 after the Xinhua mine resume production (up 9% from the 2023 level), and to continue to ramp up as the 8mnt of capacity at the Taohutu mine starts operating in 2026.
由於暫停生產和區域安全監管，新湖礦的產量和銷售量在23年下半年受到抑制。新湖礦很可能在24年第三季度恢復生產，元甸二礦的新產能已經釋放。因此，我們預計，該公司的煤炭產量將在2024年適度增長，在新華礦恢復生產後，到2025年接近2400萬噸（較2023年的水平增長9％），並且隨着桃胡圖礦的第8百萬產能於2026年開始運營，該公司的煤炭產量將繼續增加。
The firm's coal chemical business reported losses of more than Rmb1.3bn in 2023 due to sluggish demand. We expect its losses to narrow in 2024 as ethanol and dimethyl carbonate (DMC) capacity ramps up. The firm is expanding its coverage of non-coal mines, and its mines that produce sand, gravels, and aggregate are scheduled to come online and generate earnings in 2024-2025.
該公司的煤化工業務報告稱，由於需求疲軟，2023年虧損超過13億元人民幣。我們預計，隨着乙醇和碳酸二甲酯（DMC）產能的提高，其虧損將在2024年縮小。該公司正在擴大其對非煤礦山的覆蓋範圍，其生產沙子、礫石和骨料的礦山計劃於2024-2025年上線併產生收益。
How do we differ from the market? The market worries about negative impact from short-term weak demand on coal prices. We are upbeat on prime coking coal prices in the short term and expect the value of prime coking coal to experience re-rating in the medium and long term.
我們與市場有何不同？市場擔心短期需求疲軟對煤炭價格的負面影響。短期內，我們對優質煉焦煤價格持樂觀態度，並預計優質煉焦煤的價值將在中長期內重新評級。
Potential catalysts: Demand recovers; Xinhu coal mine resumes production.
潛在催化劑：需求恢復；新湖煤礦恢復生產。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
We estimate the firm's EPS at Rmb2.34 in 2024 and Rmb2.55 in 2025, implying a CAGR of 5%. The stock is trading at 8x 2024e and 7x 2025e P/E. We initiate coverage on Huaibei Mining with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of Rmb23.00, implying 10x 2024e and 9x 2025e P/E, offering 33% upside.
我們估計，該公司的每股收益在2024年爲2.34元人民幣，在2025年爲2.55元人民幣，這意味着複合年增長率爲5％。該股的交易價格爲2024年的8倍和2025年的7倍。我們啓動了對淮北礦業的報道，評級爲跑贏大盤，目標價爲23.00元人民幣，這意味着2024年市盈率爲10倍，2025年市盈率爲9倍，上漲幅度爲33％。
Risks
風險
Demand lower than expected; coal imports higher than expected; production resumption at Xinhu coal mine slower than expected.
需求低於預期；煤炭進口高於預期；新湖煤礦復產低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。