Amid intensified investments in High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, there is a noticeable surge in the prices of legacy DRAM products. The shift in focus towards HBM has led to a reduction in the production capacity of legacy products, which could lead to a shortage in the supply of generic DRAMs if the trend continues.
According to the semiconductor industry on June 16, market research firm TrendForce has predicted that the price of the old DDR3 DRAM could increase by 50-100% in the second half of the year. This price surge is a result of Samsung Electronics halting production of DDR3 products in the second quarter, while SK hynix and Micron are also reallocating their production lines to focus on HBM and DDR5, drastically reducing the supply.
TrendForce highlighted that "the general DRAM market is experiencing an unprecedented supply-demand imbalance cycle, intensifying the shortage of DDR3 production capacity." It is analyzed that the overall supply gap could exceed 20-30% in the second half of the year.
The price of DDR4 is also on an upward trajectory across all product categories. According to market research firm Omdia, the price of DDR4 (16GB) for PCs rose from $27 in the first quarter to $29.7 in the second quarter and is expected to stay at this level until the third quarter. During the same period, the price of mobile LPDDR4 (12GB) increased from $22.1 to $23.4, and server DDR4 (64GB) is projected to rise from $126 to $140.
This price inflation is partly due to the balloon effect caused by the HBM boom. HBM requires 2.5-3 times the production capacity of conventional DRAMs of the same wafer die size and has a limited yield rate of about 50-60%. Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and U.S.-based Micron have all been expanding their HBM production at least twice as much as last year.
The semiconductor industry anticipates that this situation will lead to a distinct shortage in the supply of legacy memory. Investment bank Morgan Stanley in its recent report projected that the demand for generic DRAM will exceed supply by 23% next year, which is more than double the shortage ratio of HBM at 11%. Considering that HBM currently makes up about 20% of the total DRAM market, price increases in generic DRAM could significantly boost chip manufacturers' financial performance.
Choi Min-sook, a research analyst at Korea Investment & Securities, stated, "The supply constraints caused by HBM will have a positive effect on the improvement of supply and demand. The average selling price (ASP) of memory is expected to continue rising until next year, prolonging the upcycle."
출처 : Businesskorea(
在三星電子和SK海力士加倍投資高帶寬內存（HBM）的背景下，傳統DRAM產品價格明顯上漲。轉向HBM的焦點轉移導致傳統產品的生產能力減少，如果這一趨勢持續下去，可能導致通用DRAM供應短缺。
據半導體行業6月16日透露，市場研究公司TrendForce預測，今年下半年舊的DDR3 DRAM的價格可能上漲50-100%。這種價格上漲是三星電子第二季度停產DDR3產品的結果，SK海力士和美光也正在重新分配生產線專注於HBM和DDR5，大幅減少供應量。
TrendForce指出，“通用DRAM市場正在經歷前所未有的供需失衡週期，加劇了DDR3生產能力短缺。”分析認爲，下半年整體供應缺口可能超過20-30%。
DDR4的價格在所有產品類別中也呈上升趨勢。據市場研究公司Omdia預測，PC的DDR4（16GB）價格從第一季度的27美元上升至第二季度的29.7美元，並預計維持在這個水平直至第三季度。同期，移動LPDDR4（12GB）的價格從22.1美元上漲至23.4美元，服務器DDR4（64GB）的價格預計從126美元上漲至140美元。
這種價格通脹在一定程度上是由HBM繁榮引起的氣球效應。HBM需要同樣的晶圓die尺寸比傳統DRAM生產能力高出2.5-3倍，且產量有限，約爲50-60%。三星電子、SK海力士和美國Micron去年至少擴大了兩倍以上的HBM生產。
半導體行業預計，這種情況將導致傳統存儲器供應明顯短缺。摩根士丹利投資銀行在其最近的報告中預測，明年通用DRAM的需求將超過供應23%，這比HBM的短缺率11%高出一倍以上。考慮到HBM目前佔總DRAM市場的20%，通用DRAM的價格上漲可能極大地提升芯片製造商的財務表現。
韓國投資證券的研究員Choi Min-sook表示，“HBM引起的供應約束將對供需改善產生積極影響。記憶的平均銷售價格（ASP）預計將持續上升直至明年，延長上行週期。”
來源：Businesskorea（
