What financial metrics can indicate to us that a company is maturing or even in decline? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. This reveals that the company isn't compounding shareholder wealth because returns are falling and its net asset base is shrinking. So after glancing at the trends within Bright Horizons Family Solutions (NYSE:BFAM), we weren't too hopeful.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

Just to clarify if you're unsure, ROCE is a metric for evaluating how much pre-tax income (in percentage terms) a company earns on the capital invested in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Bright Horizons Family Solutions:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.063 = US$194m ÷ (US$3.8b - US$686m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

Thus, Bright Horizons Family Solutions has an ROCE of 6.3%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 7.6% average generated by the Consumer Services industry.

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Bright Horizons Family Solutions compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free analyst report for Bright Horizons Family Solutions .

What Can We Tell From Bright Horizons Family Solutions' ROCE Trend?

We are a bit worried about the trend of returns on capital at Bright Horizons Family Solutions. To be more specific, the ROCE was 9.2% five years ago, but since then it has dropped noticeably. Meanwhile, capital employed in the business has stayed roughly the flat over the period. This combination can be indicative of a mature business that still has areas to deploy capital, but the returns received aren't as high due potentially to new competition or smaller margins. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Bright Horizons Family Solutions to turn into a multi-bagger.

The Bottom Line

All in all, the lower returns from the same amount of capital employed aren't exactly signs of a compounding machine. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 28% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.

One more thing, we've spotted 2 warning signs facing Bright Horizons Family Solutions that you might find interesting.

If you want to search for solid companies with great earnings, check out this free list of companies with good balance sheets and impressive returns on equity.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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