CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL(1093.HK):ACCELERATING GROWTH IN FINISHED DRUG SALES
CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL(1093.HK):ACCELERATING GROWTH IN FINISHED DRUG SALES
Strong double-digit growth in 1Q24. CSPC reported 1Q24 revenue of RMB8.98bn (+11.5% YoY, +18.4% QoQ) and attributable net profit of RMB1.61bn (+12.9% YoY, +17.0% QoQ), regaining double-digit growth, and representing 26% and 20% of our previous full-year estimates, respectively. The GP margin in 1Q24 increased to 72.3% (vs 68.5% in 1Q23), mainly due to a higher proportion of revenue from finished drugs (84.2% in 1Q24 vs 79.7% in 1Q23). Selling expense ratio increased to 33.0% in 1Q24 (vs 30.9% in 1Q23), due to the higher proportion of revenue from finished drugs, in our view. Admin expenses ratio increased from 3.3% in 1Q23 to 3.7% in 1Q24. R&D expenses reached RMB3.68bn in 1Q24 (+16.0% YoY, +1.5% QoQ).
24 年第一季度強勁的兩位數增長。CSPC報告稱，24年第一季度收入爲89.8億元人民幣（同比增長11.5％，環比增長18.4％），應占淨利潤爲16.1億元人民幣（同比增長12.9％，環比增長17.0％），恢復了兩位數的增長，分別佔我們之前全年估計的26％和20％。24年第一季度的GP利潤率增至72.3％（23年第一季度的68.5％），這主要是由於成品藥收入的比例增加（24年第一季度爲84.2％，而23年第一季度爲79.7％）。我們認爲，由於成品藥收入的比例增加，銷售費用比率在24年第一季度增至33.0％（而23年第一季度爲30.9％）。管理費用比率從23年第一季度的3.3％增加到24年第一季度的3.7％。研發費用在24年第一季度達到36.8億元人民幣（同比增長16.0％，環比增長1.5％）。
Accelerating growth in finished drug sales. Sales of finished drugs in 1Q24 increased 17.7% YoY to RMB7.56bn, driven by the strong sales growth of CNS products (+27.4% YoY), oncology products (+11.6% YoY), anti- infection drugs (+9.8% YoY) and cardiovascular drugs (+22.3% YoY). We think NBP performed well in Q1 driven by the strong growth from retail pharmacy channels. CSPC has established a dedicated sales force focusing on retail pharmacy channels to promote the sales of NBP and several generics.
加速成品藥銷售的增長。受中樞神經系統產品（同比增長27.4％）、腫瘤產品（同比增長11.6％）、抗感染藥物（同比增長9.8％）和心血管藥物（同比增長22.3％）的強勁銷售增長，24年第一季度成品藥的銷售額同比增長17.7％，達到75.6億元人民幣。我們認爲，受零售藥房渠道強勁增長的推動，NBP在第一季度表現良好。CSPC已經建立了一支專門的銷售隊伍，專注於零售藥房渠道，以促進NBP和幾種仿製藥的銷售。
New products to drive growth. We expect CSPC's sales of new products to ramp up quickly, including Mingfule (rhTNK-tPA), Duoenyi (irinotecan liposome), Duoenda (mitoxantrone), Ouyuexin (desvenlafaxine), Yiluoda (nintedanib), Anfulike (amphotericin B), duvelisib (PI3K), and glumetinib (MET). Mingfule was approved for acute ischemic stroke in Feb 2024, bringing additional sales potential in acute ischemic stroke. We expect the NRDL to add this new indication during the negotiation at end-2024. CSPC has seven new NDAs under review, including PD-1, omalizumab, DDP4, liposomal amphotericin B, and two NDAs under US FDA review (Anfulike and Duoenyi), further expanding the Company's commercial product portfolio. Management maintained the forecast of new products contributing RMB3.5- 3.6bn of reported revenue in 2024. Additionally, TG103 (GLP-1RA) completed enrolment for Ph3 obesity study in China in Jan 2024 and is enrolling for the Ph3 diabetes trial since Apr 2024. The semaglutide injection is currently enrolling for Ph3 diabetes in China as well since Feb 2024. The EGFR ADC and Nectin-4 ADC are going through Ph1 studies, with data readout expected in 2H24.
推動增長的新產品。我們預計CSPC的新產品的銷售將迅速增加，包括明富樂（RHTNK-TPA）、多恩益（伊立替康脂質體）、多恩達（米託蒽酮）、歐悅信（地文拉法辛）、益洛達（尼達尼布）、安富利克（兩性黴素B）、杜維利辛（PI33B）K）和谷氨替尼（MET）。明富樂於2024年2月獲准用於急性缺血性中風，這爲急性缺血性中風帶來了額外的銷售潛力。我們預計NRDL將在2024年底的談判中增加這一新指標。CSPC有七個新的NDA正在審查中，包括PD-1、奧馬珠單抗、DDP4、脂質體兩性黴素B，以及兩個正在接受美國食品藥品管理局審查的NDA（安富萊克和多恩益），進一步擴大了公司的商業產品組合。管理層維持了對2024年新產品爲報告收入貢獻35-36億元人民幣的預測。此外，TG103（GLP-1RA）於2024年1月在中國完成了Ph3肥胖研究的入組，並自2024年4月起開始報名參加Ph3糖尿病試驗。自2024年2月起，西瑪魯肽注射劑目前也在中國註冊用於Ph3糖尿病。表皮生長因子ADC和Nectin-4 ADC正在進行Ph1研究，預計將在24年下半年讀出數據。
Maintain BUY. Based on the strong double-digit growth in 1Q24, we expect CSPC's revenue and attributable net profit to grow 11.5%/ 11.1% and 13.1%/ 9.5% YoY in FY24E/ 25E, respectively. We revise up our DCF-based TP from HK$7.76 to HK$8.51 (WACC 11.78%, terminal growth 2.0%).
維持買入。基於24財年第一季度的強勁兩位數增長，我們預計24E/25E的收入和應占淨利潤將分別同比增長11.5％/11.1％和13.1％/9.5％。我們將基於差價合約的目標股價從7.76港元上調至8.51港元（WACC11.78％，最終增長2.0％）。
Risks: Sustainability of strong growth; Duomeisu's potential national centralised procurement
風險：強勁增長的可持續性；Duomeisu潛在的國家集中採購
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。