WEIBO CORP(9898.HK):1Q24 BEAT;MORE ROI-PRIORITISED EXECUTIONS
WEIBO CORP(9898.HK):1Q24 BEAT;MORE ROI-PRIORITISED EXECUTIONS
Co. reported a beat quarter with -4% YoY/ flattish YoY on constant currency total revenue and 27.0% adj. NPM. Handset, game and Alibaba ad spending performed well while FMCG especially cosmetics and personal care continued to be weak. We deem Co. will prioritise more on improving monetisation and cost efficiency in the near term amid relatively tepid marketing sentiments and intensified ad budget competition among platforms. N-T topline will be closely correlated with launch of domestic and global key events. Maintain HOLD and TP of US$10.0/ HK$79.0 on 6.0x 2024E adj. EPADS.
公司報告稱，按固定貨幣計算，總收入同比下降4％/持平，經調整後爲27.0％。NPM。手機、遊戲和阿里巴巴的廣告支出表現良好，而快速消費品，尤其是化妝品和個人護理品仍然疲軟。我們認爲，在營銷情緒相對不溫和以及平台之間廣告預算競爭加劇的情況下，Co. 將在短期內更多地優先考慮提高盈利和成本效率。N-T 標題將與國內和全球重要活動的啓動密切相關。經6.0x 2024E日調整後，維持持倉和目標價爲10.0美元/79.0港元。EPADS。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
Committed ROI-oriented prioritisations. We see Co.'s N-T key prioritisations towards strengthening core competencies and improving monetisation/ cost efficiency remain unchanged amid relatively tepid key advertisers' marketing sentiment and intensified competition among ad platforms. Enhancing key social attributes/ features, enriching vertical content offerings, activating usage frequency and optimising channel efficiency are core strategies. We deem Co. will focus more on high quality user organic growth. We expect Co.'s N-T topline will be closely correlated with launch of key events such as domestic eC festivals, global sports tournaments and Olympics. Thus, we slightly nudge down our 2024/25/26E ad revenue by 1%/ 3%/ 2% with conservative brand ad recovery assumptions and intensified ad budget squeeze among main platforms. Meanwhile, we raise our 2024-2026E absolute profit forecasts with more stringent opex assumptions. Our trimmed latest adj. EPADS forecasts reflect our increased share counts assumptions due to CB dilution.
承諾以投資回報率爲導向的優先順序。我們看見了 Co.”在主要廣告商的營銷情緒相對不溫和以及廣告平台之間競爭加劇的情況下，N-T在加強核心競爭力和提高盈利/成本效率方面的關鍵優先事項保持不變。核心策略是增強關鍵社交屬性/功能、豐富垂直內容產品、激活使用頻率和優化渠道效率。我們認爲Co. 將更多地關注高質量的用戶有機增長。我們預計 Co.”的N-T標題將與國內eC節、全球體育錦標賽和奧運會等關鍵活動的啓動密切相關。因此，根據保守的品牌廣告復甦假設以及主要平台之間的廣告預算緊縮加劇，我們將2024/25/26E的廣告收入略微下調了1％/3％/2％。同時，我們通過更嚴格的運營支出假設提高了2024-2026E的絕對利潤預期。我們修改過的最新廣告.EPADS的預測反映了我們由於CB稀釋而增加的股票數量假設。
1Q24: profit beat. Total revenue was US$395m (down -4% YoY/ flattish YoY on constant currency), 2%/ 4% beat consensus/ BOCIe. Core online ad revenue dropped by -5% YoY while flattish on C.C. basis, with Non-Alibaba and Alibaba ad revenue logging -6% YoY and +23% YoY respectively. Regarding verticals, handset and game verticals delivered double-digit YoY growth while cosmetics and personal care dropped YoY on lower budget from international brands due to consumption behaviour shift and intensified competition among ad platforms amid macro conditions. D/M ratio was relatively stable at 43.4% with MAUs/ DAUs standing at 588m/ 255mn respectively. 78.0% GPM meet streets' expectation. Adj. NPM remains flattish YoY at 27.0%, beat consensus of 22.1%.
24 年第一季度：盈利超過預期。總收入爲3.95億美元（按固定貨幣計算同比下降4％/按固定匯率計算同比持平），2％/4％超出共識/ BoCie。核心在線廣告收入同比下降-5％，而按CC計算，則持平，非阿里巴巴和阿里巴巴的廣告收入分別同比下降6％和增長23％。在垂直領域，手機和遊戲垂直行業實現了兩位數的同比增長，而化妝品和個人護理品同比下降，原因是消費行爲轉變以及宏觀條件下廣告平台之間的競爭加劇，國際品牌的預算減少。D/M比率相對穩定，爲43.4％，MAU/DAU分別爲5.88億/2.55億。78.0％的GPM符合華爾街的預期。經調整的NPM同比持平，爲27.0％，超過市場預期的22.1％。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Upsides: (i) macro and ad recovery; (ii) supportive policies; (iii) key advertisers' brand ad rebound; (iv) new ad products; and (v) novel monetisation models.
優點：（i）宏觀和廣告復甦；（ii）支持政策；（iii）主要廣告商的品牌廣告反彈；（iv）新的廣告產品；（v）新的盈利模式。
Downsides: (i) marketing behaviors change of key advertisers; (ii) slower-than- expected macro and ad rebound; (iii) competition; and (iv) ADR delisting.
缺點：（i）主要廣告商的營銷行爲變化；（ii）宏觀和廣告反彈低於預期；（iii）競爭；（iv）ADR退市。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。