XIAOMI(1810.HK):1Q24 BEAT ON STRONG MARGINS; POSITIVE ON UPBEAT SU7 DELIVERY TARGET
XIAOMI(1810.HK):1Q24 BEAT ON STRONG MARGINS; POSITIVE ON UPBEAT SU7 DELIVERY TARGET
Xiaomi's 1Q24 revenue/net profit growth of 27%/101% YoY beat our/consensus estimates, mainly driven by a stronger GPM, improving revenue mix and better finance incomes. Looking ahead, Xiaomi reiterated its positive view on smartphone global share gains, new retail strategy execution and EV shipment deliveries, and mgmt. guided to target 120k annual EV deliveries (vs 100k prior guidance). We believe Xiaomi's share gain momentum, AIoT sales strength and overseas internet revenue will continue to drive earnings growth into FY24E- 25E. We raise FY24-26E EPS by 12-16% to factor in the strong 1Q results, and lift SOTP-based TP to HK$25.39. Upcoming catalysts include SU7 shipment progress and smartphone market share gains.
小米24年第一季度的收入/淨利潤同比增長27％/101％，超過了我們的共識預期，這主要是由GPM增強、收入結構改善和財務收入增加所推動的。展望未來，小米重申了其對智能手機全球份額增長、新零售戰略執行和電動汽車出貨量以及管理部門的積極看法，目標是每年交付12萬輛電動汽車（而之前的預期爲10萬輛）。我們認爲，小米的股票勢頭增強，AIoT的銷售實力和海外互聯網收入將繼續推動收益增長至 FY24E -25E。考慮到強勁的第一季度業績，我們將FY24-26E 每股收益提高了12-16％，並將基於止損標準的目標股價上調至25.39港元。即將到來的催化劑包括SU7的出貨進展和智能手機市場份額的增長。
1Q24 beat on better margins. Xiaomi's 1Q24 global smartphone shipments increased 33.7% YoY and ASP dropped 0.6% YoY due to an increasing share of lower-ASP smartphone shipments overseas. By segment, smartphone/AIoT/internet revenue rose 32.9%/21.0%/14.5% YoY, boosted by strong SP/Pad/TWS/large home appliance shipments, a large global user base and better monetization in overseas internet segment. Despite market concerns on rising BOM cost pressure, 1Q24 blended GPM came in at 22.3%, better than our/consensus estimates, mainly due to resilient smartphone margin and record-high AIoT GPM of 19.9% with a better product mix.
24年第一季度的利潤率有所提高。小米24年第一季度全球智能手機出貨量同比增長33.7％，ASP同比下降0.6％，這是由於海外低ASP智能手機出貨量份額增加。按細分市場劃分，智能手機/AIOT/互聯網收入同比增長32.9％/ 21.0％/14.5％，這得益於強勁的SP/PAD/TWS/大型家用電器出貨量、龐大的全球用戶群以及海外互聯網細分市場的盈利能力改善。儘管市場對物料清單成本壓力上升感到擔憂，但24年第一季度的混合GPM仍爲22.3％，好於我們/共識的預期，這主要是由於智能手機利潤率彈性以及創紀錄的19.9％的AIoT GPM以及更好的產品組合。
2024E outlook: 120k SU7 annual delivery target, new retail strategy to accelerate for AIoT expansion. Xiaomi guided to target 120k annual EV deliveries (vs. prior 100k units) and 10k monthly deliveries in June. Xiaomi's EV sales network targeted to expend to 219 stores in 46 cities by year-end, together with Xiaomi's new retail strategy targeting at opening another 10k new stores in China in FY24-26. Overseas retail channels expansion plan is also set to boost AIoT sales. Overall, we expect Xiaomi's revenue/adj. net profit to grow 24%/19% YoY in FY24E.
2024E展望：SU7的年交付量目標爲12萬輛，新零售戰略將加速推進AIoT擴張。小米的指導目標是電動汽車的年交付量爲12萬輛（而之前的10萬輛），6月份的月交付量爲1萬輛。小米的電動汽車銷售網絡的目標是到年底在46個城市開設219家門店，而小米的新零售戰略則目標是在 FY24-26 期間在中國再開設1萬家新門店。海外零售渠道擴張計劃也將促進AIoT的銷售。總體而言，我們預計，在 FY24E 中，小米的收入/調整後淨利潤將同比增長24％/19％。
Our FY24-26E EPS are 28-39% above consensus; Maintain BUY. We raise FY24-26E EPS by 12%-16% to factor in the strong 1Q24 results, and lift SOTP-based TP to HK$25.39, implying 25x FY24E P/E. Reiterate BUY. Catalysts include EV product shipment progress and smartphone market share gains.
我們的 FY24-26E 每股收益比市場預期高出28-39％；維持買入。考慮到強勁的24年第一季度業績，我們將FY24-26E 每股收益提高了12％-16％，並將基於止損標準的目標股價上調至25.39港元，這意味着FY24E 市盈率是25倍。重申買入。催化劑包括電動汽車產品的出貨進展和智能手機市場份額的增長。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。