KUAISHOU(1024.HK):BULLISH ON EARNINGS UPSIDE
KUAISHOU(1024.HK):BULLISH ON EARNINGS UPSIDE
Kuaishou delivered another upbeat quarter, with topline/bottom line +17%/+10,348% YoY (1%/37% above consensus). We expect such margin surprise with a HK$16bn new share repurchase program should help its re- rating. We reiterate our confidence on KS's resilient growth and earnings upside, and expect a solid 2Q24E ahead. We forecast 2Q24E revenue +9.5% YoY, with ads and other services revenue resilient at +22.5%/24% YoY. 2Q24E bottom line may reach RMB4.4bn (13% above consensus), in our estimates. With enhanced monetization, operating leverage and overseas business narrowing loss, we are more bullish on its margin outlook. We lift our earnings forecast by 7.3%-7.6% in FY24-26E, with TP at HK$97 (unchanged).
快手又實現了一個樂觀的季度，收入/利潤同比增長17％/10,348％（比市場預期高出1％/37％）。我們預計，160億港元的新股回購計劃帶來的利潤驚喜將有助於其重新評級。我們重申對KS的彈性增長和盈利上行空間充滿信心，並預計未來將出現穩健的 2Q24E。我們預測，2Q24E 收入同比增長9.5％，廣告和其他服務收入將彈性地同比增長22.5％/24％。根據我們的估計，2Q24E 的收入可能達到44億元人民幣（比市場預期高出13％）。隨着貨幣化的提高、運營槓桿率的提高和海外業務虧損的縮小，我們更加看好其利潤前景。我們將FY24-26E 的收益預期上調了7.3％-7.6％，目標爲97港元（不變）。
Margin beat again, with HK$16bn new share repurchase program.
利潤率再次突破，新股回購計劃爲160億港元。
1Q24 beat on margin again, with revenue +17% YoY (1% above consensus) and bottom line at RMB4.4bn (37% above consensus). By segment, livestreaming/ads/other services rev was -8%/+27%/+48% YoY, of which other services revenue beat our estimates by 5%. Adj. NPM improved QoQ to 14.9% in 1Q24 (vs. consensus of 11%), mainly on a better GPM and narrowing loss of overseas business. 1Q24 DAU grew 5% YoY to 394mn, backed by enhanced algorithms and rich content supply. KS announced a new on-market share repurchase program up to HK$16bn over the next 36 months.
24年第一季度的利潤率再次超過預期，收入同比增長17％（比市場預期高出1％），利潤率爲44億元人民幣（比市場預期高出37％）。按細分市場劃分，直播/廣告/其他服務同比增長-8％/+27％/+48％，其中其他服務收入比我們的預期高出5％。調整後的NPM在24年第一季度將QoQ提高至14.9％（而預期爲11％），這主要是由於GPM的改善和海外業務損失的縮小。在增強的算法和豐富的內容供應的支持下，24年第一季度的每日活躍用戶同比增長5％，達到3.94億。KS宣佈了一項新的場內股票回購計劃，在未來36個月內回購高達160億港元。
Ads & ecommerce to sustain solid momentum in 2Q24E. For 2Q24E,
廣告和電子商務將在 2Q24E 中保持強勁勢頭。對於 2Q24E，
we expect KS's traffic to trend well, with estimated DAU +4% YoY. We remain positive on KS's ads & ecommerce monetization and earnings growth, and forecast total revenue +9.5% YoY in 2Q24E. Ads segment should continuously benefit from rising budgets for game launches, booming mini-dramas and vocational training. We forecast ads revenue +22.5% in 2Q24E (largely in line with consensus). We forecast ecommerce GMV/other services revenue to grow 25%/24% YoY in 2Q24E, supported by rich offerings, rising MAC and shelf-based mall penetration. Given a high base in 2Q, we estimate livestreaming revenue to decline 14% YoY, but full-year revenue of -8% YoY is unchanged. We forecast adj. net profit at RMB4.4bn in 2Q24E (13% above consensus), backed by an improving GPM (+4ppts YoY) and disciplined R&D and G&A spending. To factor in a better margin profile, we revise up FY24E adj. net profit forecast to RMB17.2bn (vs. prior RMB16bn).
我們預計堪薩斯州的流量將呈良好趨勢，預計每日活躍用戶同比增長4％。我們對KS的廣告和電子商務盈利和收益增長保持樂觀，並預測 2Q24E 的總收入同比增長9.5％。廣告板塊應持續受益於遊戲發佈預算的增加、蓬勃發展的迷你劇和職業培訓。我們預測，2Q24E 的廣告收入將增長22.5％（基本符合共識）。我們預測，在 2Q24E 中，電子商務GMV/其他服務收入將同比增長25％/24％，這得益於豐富的產品、不斷增長的MAC和基於貨架的購物中心滲透率。鑑於第二季度基數較高，我們估計直播收入將同比下降14％，但全年收入同比下降8％，保持不變。我們預測，2Q24E 調整後的淨利潤爲人民幣44億元（比市場預期高出13％），這得益於GPM的改善（同比增長4個百分點）以及嚴格的研發和併購支出。爲了將更好的利潤率狀況考慮在內，我們將 FY24E 調整後的淨利潤預測上調至172億元人民幣（之前爲160億元人民幣）。
Maintain BUY. We lift our FY24-26E earnings forecast by 7.3%-7.6%, but maintain SOTP-based TP at HK$97. Catalysts: 1) more earnings upside; and 2) decent quarterly results.
維持買入。我們將對 FY24-26E 的收益預期上調了7.3％-7.6％，但將基於止損標準的目標股價維持在97港元。催化劑：1）增加收益上行空間；2）良好的季度業績。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。