FUTU Morning Post

US Stock Outlook | Expected to cause sharp fluctuations! The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting hit big with Nvidia's earnings report; Pinduoduo surged more than 7% before the market, and the Q1 earnings report exceeded expectations

Futu News · May 22 20:23

全球宏观

周三盘前，美股三大期指小幅走低

美联储将于今夜公布货币政策会议的纪要

美联储将于北京时间周四凌晨2点公布其4月30日至5月1日货币政策会议的纪要。该份纪要可能会反映出美联储对第一季度通胀高于预期的更多担忧，因为当时会议是在上周CPI数据出现回落之前举行的。会议纪要还可能提供有关美联储放缓资产负债表缩减计划的更多细节，值得投资者留意。美联储在最新会议上已宣布将从6月1日起放慢缩表速度，将每月国债减持规模从目前的600亿美元放缓至250亿美元。

人们还没彻底从恐惧变为贪婪！大摩：美股还能继续涨

摩根士丹利投资管理部门高级投资组合经理Andrew Slimmon周二表示，即使在美股创下历史新高之际，投资者仍坚持手握现金，这表明市场还有相当大的空间来扩大涨幅。他指出，对股票的低期望以及对5%-6%短期美债收益率的偏好表明，市场仍处于当前周期的“恐惧”阶段。他表示，这是牛市初期的典型现象。

新债王重申“美国衰退论”，最晚2025年

“新债王” Jeffrey Gundlach作为双线资本公司的首席执行官，从去年起就一直警告美国经济的衰退风险。近日，在福克斯商业网络的采访节目中，他再次重申了这一立场，尽管他承认难以确定衰退是否会在今年发生。不过，他相信衰退最迟将在2024年或2025年到来。

降息预期反复，高盛继续看多美元

美联储降息预期仍具不确定性，而全球宽松周期似已拉开大幕，美元有望继续强势。据媒体报道，高盛策略师Kamakshya Trivedi、Joseph Briggs领导的团队在报告中表示：“如果美联储保持稳定，而其他地区选择继续宽松政策，那么政策分歧可能会使美元保持更长时间的强势。”

渣打银行乐观预测：SEC将批准现货以太坊ETF！

渣打银行表示，预计美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将在5月24日前批准现货以太坊ETF。该行外汇和数字资产研究主管Geoff Kendrick断言，SEC本周晚些时候批准现货以太坊ETF的可能性为“80%至90%”。

热点要闻

明星科技股盘前走势分化

英伟达隔夜又涨上历史新高！重磅财报盘后来袭

$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$即将在北京时间周四凌晨公布Q1财报，并在凌晨5点召开电话会议。英伟达隔夜收盘涨至953.86美元，再次创造历史新高，投资者们似乎仍然相信英伟达会在即将到来的财报会议上续写新的辉煌。另一方面，美银称，期权交易表明，市场预计英伟达股价在财报发布后将出现约8.5%的波动，意味着相当于2000亿美元的市值涨跌空间。

AWS暂停H100订单等待新芯片？亚马逊：没有！

当地时间周二，全球最大的云服务提供商$亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$云计算服务部门（AWS）公开表示，该部门并未取消任何$英伟达 (NVDA.US)$芯片订单，还计划采购英伟达的新一代Blackwell芯片。媒体此前报道称，AWS已经将其对英伟达H100的订单“完全过渡”到了新一代Blackwell GPU。

特斯拉遭遇滑铁卢：欧洲市场销量跌至15个月低点

欧洲汽车制造商协会 (ACEA) 周三公布的数据显示，4月份$特斯拉 (TSLA.US)$在欧洲的新车注册量仅为13951辆，比去年同期下滑2.3%，是自2023年1月以来的最低水平。与此形成鲜明对比的是，整体来看，欧洲电动车市场在4月份实现了14%的同比增长。截至发稿，特斯拉盘前跌超2%。

塔吉特盘前跌近8%，Q1财报不及预期

$塔吉特 (TGT.US)$Q1营收245.31亿美元，同比下降3.1%，略低于市场预期的245.38亿美元；经调整每股收益2.03美元，不及市场预期的2.05美元。截至发稿，塔吉特盘前跌近8%。

shopify盘前涨超3%，获高盛唱多

高盛将$Shopify (SHOP.US)$评级由“中性”上调至“买入”评级，目标价由67美元上调至74美元。截至发稿，shopify盘前涨超3%。

MGO Global盘前大涨近45%，Q1营收同比增长近1400%。

$MGO Global (MGOL.US)$Q1营收67.03万美元，同比增长1385%；每股亏损0.01美元，去年同期每股亏损0.08美元。截至发稿，MGO Global盘前大涨近45%。

聚焦中概股

热门中概股盘前涨跌不一

拼多多盘前大涨超7%，Q1财报全面超预期

$拼多多 (PDD.US)$Q1营收868.1亿元，同比增长131%，去年同期376.371亿元；净利润279.98亿元，同比增长246%，去年同期81.01亿元；经调整净利润为306.02亿元，同比增长202%，去年同期为101.264亿元；调整后每ADS收益20.72元；在线营销服务及其他收入为424.56亿元；交易服务收入为443.56亿元。截至发稿，拼多多盘前大涨超7%。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

22:00 美国4月成屋销售年化总数(万户)

22:30 美国截至5月17日当周EIA天然气库存变动(亿立方英尺)、美国截至5月17日当周EIA原油库存变动(万桶)

21:40 2025年FOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比在一场活动上致开幕词

次日凌晨02:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要

编辑/tolk

Global macroscopic

Before Wednesday's market, the three major US stock indices fell slightly

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the monetary policy meeting tonight

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its April 30 to May 1 monetary policy meeting at 2 a.m. Beijing time on Thursday. The minutes may reflect the Fed's more concerns about higher-than-expected inflation in the first quarter, as the meeting was held before last week's CPI data declined. The minutes may also provide more details about the Federal Reserve's plan to slow balance sheet reduction, which is worth watching for investors. The Federal Reserve announced at its latest meeting that it will slow down the pace of contraction from June 1, slowing down the monthly treasury bond holdings reduction scale from the current 60 billion US dollars to 25 billion US dollars.

People haven't completely changed from fear to greed! Damascus: US stocks can continue to rise

Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley's investment management department, said on Tuesday that even as US stocks hit record highs, investors are still holding on to cash, which shows that there is still plenty of room in the market to expand gains. He pointed out that low expectations for stocks and preferences for 5%-6% short-term US Treasury yields indicate that the market is still in the “fear” phase of the current cycle. He said this was a typical phenomenon in the early days of a bull market.

New debt tycoon reaffirms the “American recession theory”, no later than 2025

Jeffrey Gundlach, the “king of new debt,” has been warning of the risk of a recession in the US economy since last year, as the CEO of a dual-tier capital company. Recently, in an interview program on Fox Business Network, he once again reiterated this position, although he admitted that it is difficult to determine whether a recession will occur this year. However, he believes the recession will arrive in 2024 or 2025 at the latest.

Interest rate cuts are expected repeatedly, and Goldman Sachs continues to be bullish on the US dollar

Expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates are still uncertain, and the global easing cycle seems to have begun, and the US dollar is expected to continue to be strong. According to media reports, Goldman Sachs strategists Kamakshya Trivedi and Joseph Briggs said in the report: “If the Federal Reserve remains stable and other regions choose to continue easing policies, then policy differences may keep the dollar strong for a longer period of time.”

Standard Chartered Bank is optimistic: SEC will approve a spot Ethereum ETF!

Standard Chartered said it is expected that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve a spot Ethereum ETF by May 24. Geoff Kendrick, head of foreign exchange and digital asset research at the bank, asserted that there is an “80% to 90% chance” that the SEC will approve a spot Ethereum ETF later this week.

Hot news

The pre-market trend of Star Technology stocks diverged

Nvidia rose to a record high overnight! The big earnings report came later

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The Q1 earnings report will soon be announced in the early hours of Thursday morning Beijing time, and a conference call will be held at 5 a.m. Nvidia closed overnight at $953.86, once again setting a record high, and investors still seem confident that Nvidia will continue to shine at the upcoming earnings conference. On the other hand, the Bank of America said that options trading shows that the market expects Nvidia's stock price to fluctuate by about 8.5% after the earnings report is released, which means that there is room for rise and fall in market capitalization equivalent to 200 billion US dollars.

AWS suspends H100 orders awaiting new chips? Amazon: No!

On Tuesday local time, the world's largest cloud service provider$Amazon (AMZN.US)$The Cloud Computing Services Division (AWS) has publicly stated that it has not cancelled any$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The chip order also plans to purchase Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell chips. The media previously reported that AWS had “completely transitioned” its order for the Nvidia H100 to a new generation of Blackwell GPUs.

Tesla hits Waterloo: European market sales fall to a 15-month low

According to data released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) on Wednesday, April$Tesla (TSLA.US)$The number of new car registrations in Europe was only 13,951, down 2.3% from the same period last year, the lowest level since January 2023. In stark contrast to this, overall, the European electric vehicle market achieved 14% year-on-year growth in April. As of press time, Tesla was down more than 2% before the market.

Target fell nearly 8% before the market, and Q1 earnings fell short of expectations

$Target (TGT.US)$Q1 revenue was US$24.531 billion, down 3.1% year on year, slightly below market expectations of US$24.538 billion; adjusted earnings per share were US$2.03, which fell short of market expectations of US$2.05. As of press time, Target is down nearly 8% in the premarket.

Shopify rose more than 3% before the market and won many songs by Goldman Sachs

Takamori Masashi$Shopify (SHOP.US)$The rating was raised from “neutral” to a “buy” rating, and the target price was raised from $67 to $74. As of press time, Shopify is up more than 3% in the premarket.

MGO Global surged nearly 45% in the premarket, and Q1 revenue increased nearly 1,400% year over year.

$MGO Global (MGOL.US)$Q1 revenue was $670,300, up 1,385% year over year; loss per share was $0.01, compared with loss of $0.08 per share in the same period last year. As of press time, MGO Global surged nearly 45% in the premarket.

Focus on China Securities

The rise and fall of popular Chinese securities was mixed before the market

Pinduoduo surged more than 7% before the market, and the Q1 earnings report completely exceeded expectations

$PDD Holdings (PDD.US)$Q1 revenue was 86.81 billion yuan, up 131% year on year; net profit of 27.637.1 billion yuan in the same period last year; net profit of 27.998 billion yuan, up 246% year on year, 8.101 billion yuan in the same period last year; adjusted net profit of 30.602 billion yuan, up 202% year on year, of 10.126.4 billion yuan; adjusted revenue per ADS; online marketing services and other revenue was 44.356 billion yuan; transaction services revenue was 44.356 billion yuan. As of press release, Pinduoduo surged more than 7% before the market.

Top 20 pre-market turnover of US stocks

US Stock Macro Calendar Reminder

(The following are all Beijing time)

22:00 Total annual sales of existing homes in the US in April (10,000 households)

22:30 Changes in US EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending May 17 (100 million cubic feet), US EIA crude oil inventory changes for the week ending May 17 (10,000 barrels)

At 9:40 2025 FOMC and Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Goulsby delivered opening remarks at an event

At 02:00 a.m. the next day, the Federal Reserve announced the minutes of the monetary policy meeting

editor/tolk

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.