REIT Watch - Retail Flows Remain Cautiously Optimistic for S-Reits
REIT Watch - Retail Flows Remain Cautiously Optimistic for S-Reits
Softer US inflation data that came out the past week fuelled expectations of rate cuts once more. The US consumer price index increased 0.3 per cent from March to April but was lower than what markets were expecting.
上周公布的疲软的美国通胀数据再次激发了人们对降息的预期。从3月到4月，美国消费者物价指数上涨了0.3％，但低于市场的预期。
This resulted in markets reacting positively to the news which saw Asian equities rally on Thursday (May 16) and Treasury yields decline.
这导致市场对周四（5月16日）亚洲股市上涨，美国国债收益率下降的消息反应积极。
According to the CME Fed Watch tool, traders are also pricing in a 70 per cent probability of a rate cut as early as September.
根据芝加哥商品交易所美联储观察工具，交易员还认为最早在9月降息的可能性为70％。
The iEdge S-Reit Index also rallied on Thursday, gaining 2 per cent. Within the sector, some of the top movers for the day were Prime US Reit, Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust, Keppel DC Reit, Mapletree Logistics Trust, and CapitaLand India Trust.
iEdge S-Reit指数也在周四上涨，上涨了2％。在该行业中，当天的一些涨幅最大的是美国Prime房地产投资信托基金、丰树泛亚商业信托基金、吉宝华盛顿房地产投资信托基金、丰树物流信托和凯德置地印度信托。
High interest rates impact Reits in a few ways, such as higher financing costs, thereby potentially affecting distributions, as well as lower property valuations. This is perhaps why the sector has declined close to 24 per cent in price since end-2021 (Fed funds rate hikes started in March 2022) up till Q1 2024.
高利率以多种方式影响房地产投资信托基金，例如更高的融资成本，从而可能影响分配，以及降低房地产估值。这也许就是为什么该行业自2021年底（美联储基金于2022年3月开始加息）至2024年第一季度以来价格已下跌近24％的原因。
However, investors should remember that Reits invest in income-generating assets and distribute rental income in the form of distributions to Reit unitholders.
但是，投资者应记住，房地产投资信托基金投资于创收资产，并以分配的形式向房地产投资信托基金单位持有人分配租金收入。
Hence, including dividend distributions, this brings S-Reits' total returns to a fall of 12 per cent, halving their price decline.
因此，包括股息分配在内，这使S-Reits的总回报率下降了12％，使其价格下跌幅度减半。
In terms of balance sheet strength, the S-Reit sector has an average gearing ratio of 38 per cent, below the regulatory limit of 50 per cent.
就资产负债表实力而言，S-Reit板块的平均资产负债率为38％，低于50％的监管上限。
With lower leverage ratios and close to three-quarters of S-Reits' debts entered in fixed rates, Nareit – the worldwide representative voice for Reits and real estate companies with an interest in US real estate – also echoes that disciplined balance sheets will insulate Reits from higher rates.
由于杠杆率较低，而且近四分之三的S-Reits债务以固定利率记账，Nareit——房地产投资信托基金和对美国房地产感兴趣的房地产公司的全球代表性代言人——也反映了严格的资产负债表将使房地产投资信托基金免受更高利率的影响。
In the US, the real estate sector has also done well, having seen two stocks beat earnings for every one stock that missed, compared to the broader market's every three (beat earnings) to two (missed earnings) ratio.
在美国，房地产行业也表现良好，每错过一只股票就有两只股票超过收益，而整个市场的收益率为每三只（超额收益）比二（错过收益）。
From a valuation perspective, the iEdge S-Reit Index is trading at a price-to-book ratio of 0.85 times, and as highlighted last month, the sector is trading at a discount of almost 20 per cent against its longer-term average.
从估值的角度来看，iEdge S-Reit指数的交易价格与账面比率为0.85倍，正如上个月所强调的那样，该行业的交易价格较长期平均水平折扣了近20％。
Retail investors have also been seen to be opportunistic, with over S$760 million in net buy activities in the first four months of this year, compared to S$150 million to S$200 million for the same periods in 2022 and 2023. Inflows to S-Reit ETFs hit a 19-month high in April.
散户投资者也被认为是机会主义者，今年前四个月的净买入活动超过7.6亿新元，而2022年和2023年同期的净买入活动为1.5亿至2亿新元。4月，S-Reit ETF的流入量创下19个月新高。
Despite a challenging environment, S-Reits continue to stride ahead thus far. Hospitality S-Reits have recorded on average 20 per cent year-on-year growth in distributions per unit on the back of the tourism recovery.
尽管环境充满挑战，但迄今为止，S-Reits继续向前迈进。在旅游业复苏的背景下，酒店业S-Reits的单位分配额平均同比增长20％。
Keppel Reit, Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust, Digital Core Reit, Mapletree Logistics Trust, CapitaLand India Trust, and Daiwa House Logistics Trust have also announced acquisition plans this year thus far.
到目前为止，吉宝房地产投资信托、弗雷泽物流与商业信托、数字核心房地产投资信托、丰树物流信托、凯德印度信托和大和房屋物流信托基金也宣布了今年迄今为止的收购计划。
The latest Straits Times Index (STI) review also saw Frasers Centrepoint Trust join the index, bringing the total number of S-Reits in the STI to seven with a combined weightage of 12.5 per cent.
最新的《海峡时报》指数（STI）审查还显示，弗雷泽Centrepoint Trust也加入了该指数，使STI中的S-REITS总数达到七个，总权重为12.5％。
Understandably, markets and investors will still look towards the Fed's decision on interest rates over the next few months.
可以理解的是，市场和投资者仍将关注美联储未来几个月的利率决定。
Nareit is cautiously optimistic that recovery could begin in 2025; however the rally in global Reits seen last quarter could well signal that the end of the rate-hike cycle will herald a period of Reit outperformance.
纳雷特对复苏可能在2025年开始持谨慎乐观态度；但是，上个季度全球房地产投资信托基金的上涨很可能预示着加息周期的结束将预示着房地产投资信托基金的表现跑赢大盘的时期。
And for those that missed it, last weekend saw the largest Reit event in Singapore – the Reit Symposium 2024, an annual physical event organised by InvestingNote, ShareInvestor and REITAS. Given the interest and sentiment in the sector's outlook, it is no wonder the event was attended by over 1,800 registrants.
对于那些错过的人来说，上周末迎来了新加坡最大的房地产投资信托基金活动——2024年房地产投资信托基金研讨会，这是由InvestingNote、ShareInvestor和REITAS组织的年度实体活动。鉴于对该行业前景的兴趣和情绪，难怪有1,800多名注册者参加了该活动。
Source: SGX Research S-REITs & Property Trusts Chartbook.
资料来源：新加坡证券交易所研究S-REITs和房地产信托基金图表。
REIT Watch is a regular column on The Business Times, read the original version.
房地产投资信托基金观察是《商业时报》的定期专栏文章， 读 原始版本。
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译文内容由第三方软件翻译。