Ipsos 2024 U.S. National Election Survey - May 2024
Ipsos 2024 U.S. National Election Survey - May 2024
Information and news silos are the unspoken primary drivers of this election
信息和新聞孤島是本次選舉不言而喻的主要驅動力
WASHINGTON, May 16, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The first Ipsos 2024 independent national election survey finds that among registered voters, the race for president is tied between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Most election coverage and analysis of the polls focus on partisanship or demographic groups; however, a striking and under-covered story of this cycle emerges when analyzing results by media silos or "main media source."
華盛頓，2024年5月16日 /PRNewswire/ — 益普索2024年首次獨立全國大選調查發現，在登記選民中，總統競選在喬·拜登總統和前總統唐納德·特朗普之間並列。大多數選舉報道和對民意調查的分析都集中在黨派關係或人口群體上；但是，當按媒體孤島或 “主要媒體來源” 分析結果時，就會出現一個引人注目且被掩蓋的這一週期的故事。
Viewed through that lens, most of the support for Donald Trump comes from people who get news from conservative media, social media, or have no major source of news. Biden's base of support, on the other hand, is dominated by people who use 'mainstream' news outlets (including cable news, network news, and national newspapers). College education and race and ethnicity intersect in meaningful ways, framing what sources of news people turn to, their political reality, and their support for the two major party candidates. For more data and findings, click here.
從這個角度來看，對唐納德·特朗普的大部分支持來自保守派媒體、社交媒體的新聞或沒有主要新聞來源的人。另一方面，拜登的支持基礎由使用 “主流” 新聞媒體（包括有線電視新聞、網絡新聞和全國性報紙）的人主導。大學教育與種族和族裔以有意義的方式交匯，構成了人們轉向的新聞來源、他們的政治現實以及他們對兩位主要黨派候選人的支持。欲了解更多數據和發現，請點擊此處。
Detailed findings:
詳細調查結果：
- The American public is fragmented by where they get their news.
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- Roughly the same number of Americans get their news primarily from network news as social media or digital sources. From there, the next most popular places Americans turn to for news are local news, Fox News or conservative outlets, and newspapers. Finally, the next popular place for news is CNN or MSNBC. About one in five Americans (18%) don't primarily get their news from these sources or do not have a preferred source of news.
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- However, not all Americans are tuning into the same news sources with substantial differences when looking at the ways race and ethnicity intersect with education. Americans without a college degree are less likely to follow mainstream sources.
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- White Americans with a Bachelor's degree are more likely than white Americans without a Bachelor's degree to get their news from the mainstream media, that is a newspaper, public outlet, a major network, CNN, or MSNBC. White non-college educated Americans are more likely to get their news from social media or an unlisted or undefined source.
- Black Americans, regardless of education, turn primarily to mainstream news sources. However, Black Americans without a college degree are more likely to turn to social media or some undefined or unlisted source than Black Americans with a college degree.
- These patterns weaken among Hispanic Americans. While slightly more Hispanics with a Bachelor's degree than those without one follow mainstream news, nearly an equal share of Hispanic Americans with a Bachelor's degree primarily get news from the mainstream media as those who get it from social media or some other source (30% mainstream news vs. 34% social/other). Hispanic Americans without a college degree are far more likely to turn to social media or some other unlisted source for news than any other news source.
- Likewise, college education among AAPI Americans, those who identify with two or more races or as "other" drives news consumption habits. These Americans are more likely to turn to social media or some other news source than their college-educated peers.
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- This fragmentation feeds directly into how people understand political issues.
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- Preferred news source shapes what Americans see, worry about, what they know, along with what policies they support. Americans who follow social media or some other undisclosed news source perform worse on knowledge tests that assess whether they can identify true or false statements around topics, such as immigration or facts about the 2020 election.
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- The 2024 race is tied. But that tie is built on substantial fault lines, particularly by how people get their news and by race and educational attainment.
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- Among registered voters, 37% support President Joe Biden for president in the election in November, while 35% support former President Donald Trump.
- When registered voters who select Robert F. Kennedy Jr., some other candidate, would not vote, or don't know are pushed to pick one of the two major party candidates, 48% of registered voters choose Biden and 48% choose Trump.
- Registered voters who support Biden are more likely to get their news from the mainstream media than Trump voters (25% vs. 8%, respectively). Trump voters are more likely than Biden voters to get their news primarily from conservative media (11% vs. 1%), and social media, some other source, or an unlisted source (16% vs. 8%).
- Race, ethnicity, and educational attainment drive differences in which candidates people support. Majorities of college-educated Americans, regardless of race or ethnicity, support Biden over Trump. However, Biden's support among Black college-educated Americans (89% say they would vote for Biden vs. 9% that say they would vote for Trump) and Hispanic college-educated Americans (62% vs. 36%) is larger than it is among white college-educated (54% vs. 43%) and AAPI, 2+ race/other (55% vs. 40%).
- Except for white non-college-educated Americans, Trump does not win majority support from non-college-educated Americans. However, he does better among this group than among the college-educated. Among those without a college degree, 47% of Hispanics and 45% of AAPI/2+ race/other support Trump, up 11 points and five points from each group's college degree-holding counterparts, respectively. Likewise, 22% of Black Americans without a college degree support Trump, up from 9% of Black college-educated Americans.
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- 美國公衆因從哪裏獲得新聞而支離破碎。
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- 與社交媒體或數字來源一樣，主要從網絡新聞中獲取新聞的美國人數量大致相同。從那以後，美國人獲取新聞的下一個最受歡迎的地方是當地新聞、福克斯新聞或保守派媒體以及報紙。最後，下一個熱門的新聞場所是美國有線電視新聞網或MSNBC。大約五分之一的美國人（18％）主要不是從這些來源獲得新聞，或者沒有首選的新聞來源。
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- 但是，在研究種族和族裔與教育的交匯方式時，並非所有美國人都在關注相同的新聞來源，但差異很大。沒有大學學位的美國人不太可能關注主流來源。
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- 擁有學士學位的美國白人比沒有學士學位的美國白人更有可能從主流媒體，即報紙、公共媒體、主要網絡、CNN或MSNBC獲得新聞。未受過大學教育的美國白人更有可能從社交媒體或未公開或未確定的來源獲得新聞。
- 美國黑人無論受過什麼教育，都主要轉向主流新聞來源。但是，與擁有大學學位的美國黑人相比，沒有大學學位的美國黑人更有可能轉向社交媒體或某些未定義或未公開的來源。
- 這些模式在西班牙裔美國人中減弱。儘管擁有學士學位的西班牙裔美國人關注主流新聞的比例略高於沒有學士學位的西班牙裔美國人，但擁有學士學位的西班牙裔美國人主要從主流媒體獲取新聞的比例與從社交媒體或其他來源獲得新聞的西班牙裔美國人比例幾乎相等（主流新聞佔30％，社交/其他佔34％）。沒有大學學位的拉美裔美國人比任何其他新聞來源都更有可能轉向社交媒體或其他未公開來源獲取新聞。
- 同樣，AAPI美國人，即認同兩個或更多種族或 “其他” 種族的人的大學教育會推動新聞消費習慣。與受過大學教育的同齡人相比，這些美國人更有可能轉向社交媒體或其他新聞來源。
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- 這種分裂直接影響了人們對政治問題的理解。
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- 首選新聞來源決定了美國人所見、擔心、所知道的以及他們支持的政策。關注社交媒體或其他未公開新聞來源的美國人在知識測試中表現更差，這些測試評估他們能否識別出有關移民或2020年大選事實等話題的真實或虛假陳述。
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- 2024年的比賽是並列的。但是這種關係建立在巨大的斷層線之上，特別是人們獲取新聞的方式、種族和教育程度。
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- 在登記選民中，有37％的人支持喬·拜登總統在11月的選舉中當選總統，而35％的人支持前總統唐納德·特朗普。
- 當選擇小羅伯特·肯尼迪（Robert F. Kennedy Jr.）（其他候選人不願投票或不知道）的登記選民被迫從兩位主要黨派候選人中選出一位時，48％的登記選民選擇拜登，48％的人選擇特朗普。
- 與特朗普選民相比，支持拜登的註冊選民更有可能從主流媒體獲得消息（分別爲25％和8％）。特朗普選民比拜登選民更有可能主要從保守派媒體（11％對1％）、社交媒體、其他來源或非上市來源（16％對8％）獲得新聞。
- 種族、族裔和教育程度推動了人們支持的候選人的差異。大多數受過大學教育的美國人，無論種族或民族，都支持拜登而不是特朗普。但是，拜登在受過大學教育的黑人美國人（89％表示將投票支持拜登，9％的人表示將投票支持特朗普）和受過大學教育的西班牙裔美國人（62％對36％）的支持率高於受過大學教育的白人（54％對43％）和AAPI，2+種族/其他（55％對40％）。
- 除了未受過大學教育的美國白人外，特朗普沒有贏得未受過大學教育的美國人的多數支持。但是，他在這個群體中的表現要好於受過大學教育的人。在沒有大學學位的人群中，47％的西班牙裔和45％的AAPI/2+種族/其他人支持特朗普，分別比每個群體擁有大學學位的同行上升了11個百分點和5個百分點。同樣，沒有大學學位的美國黑人中有22％支持特朗普，高於受過大學教育的黑人美國人的9％。
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About the Study
關於這項研究
This Ipsos 2024 National Election survey was conducted May 7-13, 2024, by Ipsos using our KnowledgePanel. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 2,144 adults ages 18+.
這項益普索2024年全國大選調查由益普索使用我們的知識面板於2024年5月7日至13日進行。該民意調查基於具有全國代表性的2,144名18歲以上成年人的概率樣本。
The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult US population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population. KnowledgePanel members receive a per survey incentive, usually the equivalent of $1 (though for some it is $2) in points, that can be redeemed for cash or prizes. No prenotification email for this study was sent prior to field. Panelists receive a unique login to the survey and are only able to complete it one time. No reminder emails were sent for this study.
該調查是使用KnowledgePanel進行的，KnowledgePanel是規模最大、最完善的在線概率小組，代表了美國成年人口。我們的招聘流程採用科學開發的基於地址的抽樣方法，使用美國郵政最新的交付順序文件——一個全面覆蓋美國所有交付點的數據庫。受邀加入該小組的家庭是從美國所有可用的家庭中隨機選擇的。邀請抽樣家庭中的人員加入並參與該小組。小組成員可以免費獲得平板電腦和互聯網連接，但被選中的那些還沒有互聯網訪問權限的人。那些加入小組並被選中參與調查的人將獲得一個受密碼保護的唯一登錄名，用於在線完成調查。根據我們的招募和抽樣方法，KnowledgePanel的樣本涵蓋了所有家庭，無論其電話或互聯網狀態如何，並且可以報告調查結果時略有抽樣誤差，並對普通人群進行預測。KnowledgePanel成員將獲得每次調查的獎勵，通常相當於1美元（儘管對某些人來說是2美元）的積分，可以兌換現金或獎品。在實地考察之前，沒有發送任何有關該研究的預通知電子郵件。小組成員將獲得該調查的唯一登錄名，並且只能完成一次。沒有爲這項研究發送提醒電子郵件。
The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.06. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. Sampling error is only one potential source of error. There may be other unmeasured non-sampling error in this or any poll. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent.
對於基於整個成年人樣本的結果，在 95% 的置信水平下，抽樣誤差幅度爲正負2.2個百分點。採樣誤差幅度考慮了設計效果，即 1.06。抽樣誤差幅度更高，並且根據子樣本得出的結果會有所不同。採樣誤差只是潛在的誤差來源之一。本次或任何民意調查中可能存在其他未測得的非抽樣誤差。在我們對調查結果的報告中，百分點四捨五入到最接近的整數。因此，給定表格列中的百分比總和可能略高於或低於 100%。在允許多個回答的問題中，各欄的總數可能大大超過100％，具體取決於每個受訪者提供的不同答案的數量。
The study was conducted in English. The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, education, Census region, metropolitan status, household income and 2020 vote. The demographic benchmarks came from 2023 Current Population Survey (CPS) from the US Census Bureau. 2020 vote results are from the official vote totals of the 2020 presidential election. The weighting categories were as follows:
該研究是用英語進行的。對數據進行了加權，以按年齡、種族/民族、教育、人口普查區域、大都市地位、家庭收入和2020年投票進行性別調整。人口基準來自美國人口普查局的2023年當前人口調查（CPS）。2020年的投票結果來自2020年總統大選的官方投票總數。加權類別如下：
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
- Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
- Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
- Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
- 2020 vote (Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Other, Didn't vote)
- 按年齡（18—29、30—44、45—59 和 60 歲以上）劃分的性別（男性、女性）
- 種族/西班牙民族（非西班牙裔白人、非西班牙裔黑人、其他或 2 個以上種族非西班牙裔、西班牙裔）
- 教育（高中畢業或以下、部分大學、學士及以上）
- 人口普查區域（東北、中西部、南部、西部）
- 大都市地位（地鐵、非地鐵）
- 家庭收入（低於25,000美元，25,000-49,999美元，50,000-74,999美元，75,000-999美元，100,000-149,999美元，100,000-149,999美元，150,000美元以上）
- 2020 年投票（喬·拜登、唐納德·特朗普、其他，沒有投票）
About Ipsos
關於益普索
Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing nearly 20,000 people.
益普索是全球最大的市場研究和民意調查公司之一，業務遍及90個市場，僱用近20,000名員工。
Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 business solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.
我們充滿好奇心的研究專業人員、分析師和科學家已經建立了獨特的多專業能力，可以對公民、消費者、患者、客戶或員工的行爲、觀點和動機提供真正的理解和有力的見解。我們的 75 種業務解決方案基於我們的調查、社交媒體監控以及定性或觀察技術的主要數據。
"Game Changers" – our tagline – summarizes our ambition to help our 5,000 clients navigate with confidence our rapidly changing world.
“Game Changers” ——我們的口號——概述了我們幫助我們的 5,000 名客戶充滿信心地駕馭我們瞬息萬變的世界的雄心。
Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120, Mid-60 indices, STOXX Europe 600 and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).
益普索於1975年在法國成立，自1999年7月1日起在巴黎泛歐交易所上市。該公司是SBF 120、Mid-60指數、STOXX 歐洲600指數的一部分，有資格獲得延期結算服務（SRD）。
ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP
ISIN 代碼 FR0000073298、路透社 ISOS.PA、彭博 IPS: FP
SOURCE Ipsos
來源 Ipsos
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。