Stock Market Rally For 2024 Has Peaked, Goldman Sachs Forecasts 'Flat Return From Now Till The End Of The Year'
Stock Market Rally For 2024 Has Peaked, Goldman Sachs Forecasts 'Flat Return From Now Till The End Of The Year'
The stock market rally for 2024 has reached its peak, according to Goldman Sachs. The firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, David Kostin, has predicted a flat return for the S&P 500 for the remainder of the year.
高盛表示，2024年的股市漲勢已達到頂峯。該公司首席美國股票策略師戴維·科斯汀曾預測，標準普爾500指數在今年剩餘時間內的回報率將持平。
What Happened: Kostin mentioned in an interview with Bloomberg TV that there is no economic, valuation, or earnings rationale for additional upside. The S&P 500 has already surpassed Goldman's year-end target of 5,200.
發生了什麼：科斯汀在接受彭博電視採訪時提到，沒有經濟、估值或盈利理由來增加上行空間。標準普爾500指數已經超過了高盛設定的5,200的年終目標。
This suggests "a flat return from now till the end of the year," Kostin said, leaving open the possibility for a change in forecast if variables change.
科斯汀說，這表明 “從現在起到年底的回報率持平”，如果變量發生變化，預測有可能發生變化。
Goldman's team currently projects real GDP growth of just under 3% and earnings growth of about 8%. However, valuations are currently high and unlikely to boost stocks further.
高盛的團隊目前預計實際GDP增長將略低於3％，收益增長約8％。但是，目前估值很高，不太可能進一步提振股票。
"They're at an index level basis almost 21 times earnings. So the probability of a multiple expansion, while possible, is less probable," Kostin said. "The idea of earnings being much greater than we're assuming we think is pretty low."
“它們處於指數水平，幾乎是收益的21倍。因此，多次擴張的可能性雖然可能，但可能性較小。” 科斯汀說。“收益比我們想象的要高得多的想法相當低。”
Despite this, Kostin hasn't entirely dismissed the possibility of a bullish turnaround. He noted that if the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates more dramatically than assumed, this could lead to more upside. However, Goldman's base case still considers two cuts as the most likely scenario for this year.
儘管如此，科斯汀並沒有完全否認看漲轉機的可能性。他指出，如果聯儲局必須比想象的更大幅度地降息，這可能會帶來更大的上行空間。但是，高盛的基本案例仍然認爲兩次削減是今年最有可能的情況。
Why It Matters: Recently, the stock market showed a bullish signal, with the S&P 500 and the NYSE advance-decline lines hitting new all-time highs. This was seen as a leading indicator by technical analysts. However, Kostin's recent comments suggest that this bullish trend may not continue.
爲何重要：最近，股市顯示出看漲信號，標準普爾500指數和紐約證券交易所漲跌線創下歷史新高。這被技術分析師視爲領先指標。但是，科斯汀最近的評論表明，這種看漲趨勢可能不會持續下去。
Meanwhile, Mohamed El-Erian, the Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz, has suggested that the latest inflation data could prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to consider an earlier interest rate cut, potentially boosting bond and equity prices. This could be a factor in the stock market's future performance.
同時，安聯首席經濟顧問穆罕默德·埃裏安表示，最新的通脹數據可能會促使聯儲局考慮提前降息，這可能會提振債券和股票價格。這可能是影響股市未來表現的一個因素。
Additionally, investment strategist Ed Yardeni has warned that the Fed's potential monetary easing through interest rate cuts could lead to a stock market melt-up, potentially propelling the S&P 500 to record highs by the year's end.
此外，投資策略師埃德·亞爾德尼警告說，聯儲局可能通過降息來放鬆貨幣政策，可能導致股市崩潰，有可能推動標準普爾500指數在年底前創下歷史新高。
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譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。