The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to terminal sales data obtained by First Commercial Vehicle Network (Jiaotong Insurance Caliber, excluding exports and military products), in April 2024, the actual sales of 26,400 heavy natural gas trucks were sold, down 10% from March this year, and continued to rise year-on-year, reaching 160%. Although the year-on-year growth rate was narrower than the previous month (+208%), it can still be felt that the continuous doubling of this stock is very strong. At this point, the growth of natural gas heavy truck wheels that began in December 2022 has successfully expanded to “17 consecutive increases”.

It is worth mentioning that the sales volume of 26,400 units in April 2024 was the third-highest monthly sales volume in the history of heavy natural gas trucks (after June 2019 and March 2024). As of April 2024, a total of 6 times a month with sales of more than 20,000 heavy natural gas trucks have occurred. 4 of these have occurred in the last 8 months. It can be seen how booming the gas heavy truck market is now.

As can be seen from the monthly trend chart of domestic gas heavy truck terminal sales in recent years, the red bars indicate that sales in 2024 are higher than in the same period of any previous year, especially in the recent months of March and April, which is significantly higher. According to the observations of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the domestic heavy truck market has clearly cooled down at the end of 2023, and terminal demand in 2024 is also not ideal (the first two months experienced a year-on-year decline, and the cumulative sales volume fell 8% year on year in January-April). In an environment where the freight market continues to be sluggish and overall demand is limited, natural gas heavy trucks continued to grow at a high growth rate driven by low freight rates. It can be seen that the hot market in the natural gas heavy truck market is not “hype”, but “real fire.”

On the other hand, another major factor affecting the heavy gas truck market — the trend of gas prices in 2024 is also very “friendly”. In December 2023, the average gas price of LNG was close to 6,000 yuan/ton, and the economic advantage of heavy natural gas trucks dropped a lot at the end of 2023; in January 2024, the price of natural gas dropped slightly (about 5,300 yuan/ton), then the wholesale price of LNG continued to decline in February, March, and April. The gas price rebounded at the end of the month (see figure below), but it was still a very friendly price. This clearly stimulated the desire to buy heavy gas trucks for two consecutive months in March and April. Sales also confirm the stimulating effect of gas prices on heavy gas trucks.

Looking at terminal sales regions, from January to April 2024, a total of 30 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) across the country had heavy natural gas trucks listed, and the regional distribution was still extremely uneven. Major resource-based logistics and transportation provinces such as Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan “received” most of the sales volume in the natural gas heavy truck terminal market in the first 4 months of this year (see figure below). Hebei and Shanxi, which are the top two regional terminal sales in January-April this year, accounted for 18.9% and 16.6% respectively. road; Shandong, Henan, Ningxia, and Sichuan ranked 3-6 in terms of license volume. From January to April, 6793, 6269, 4,950, and 4,327 heavy natural gas trucks were listed, accounting for 9.5%, 8.8%, 6.9%, and 6% respectively; Liaoning, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Jiangsu, which ranked 7-11 in the region, also sold more than 2,000 heavy natural gas trucks in January-April this year, accounting for more than 3%.

As can be seen in the picture above, not all provinces saw an increase in the number of natural gas heavy truck licenses in January-April of this year compared to the same period last year; the number of heavy natural gas truck licenses in Xinjiang declined in January-April of this year. Of the 42,200 vehicle increase in the heavy natural gas truck market from January to April 2024, it was mainly “divided” by Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Liaoning, etc. Among them, Hebei Province contributed more than 10,000 “incremental” vehicles. Shandong and Henan increased by more than 6,000 vehicles and nearly 5,000 vehicles, respectively. Judging from the growth rate, Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Sichuan, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Gansu, Anhui, Guangdong, Chongqing and other places all outperformed the growth rate of the heavy natural gas truck market in January-April this year. Among them, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guangdong and other provinces surged 417%, 1824%, 369%, 829%, 2833%, 4935%, and 2681%, respectively.

TOP sold more than 2,000 units in May, and Dongfeng/Shaanxi Auto was only 2 vehicles short

In April 2024, domestic heavy natural gas trucks actually sold 26,400 units, a sharp increase of 160% over the previous month. The increase was narrower than the previous month, with sales of about 16,200 vehicles more than in April 2023, about 2.6 times the sales volume for the same period last year.

First Commercial Vehicle Network notes that in January and February 2024, the number of companies selling more than 1,000 vehicles in the natural gas heavy truck market was only 2 and 4, respectively, while in March and April as recently as March and April, this number reached 5. In April, the five companies Jiefang, Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, Dongfeng, and Foton all sold more than 2,000 vehicles. Among them, Jiefang Month continued to sell more than 8,000 units, reaching 8,539 vehicles, with a monthly share of 32.4% (in January-April this year, the monthly share released to the heavy natural gas truck market exceeded 30%), and Jiefang continued to top the monthly list in the natural gas heavy truck market with extremely strong performance.

As can be seen from the table above, in April 2024, the natural gas heavy truck market grew 160% year on year. Looking specifically at various companies, this is not the only voice of growth. In April, the top ten companies with sales increased by 9 and 1 drop. If the scope is extended to the top 12, the number of companies experiencing a decline will have to increase by 2 more companies. In April, the sales volume of heavy natural gas trucks from Jiefang, Sinotruk, Foton, JAC and other companies increased 171%, 359%, 400%, and 258%, respectively. While achieving growth, they also outperformed the “market” of the heavy natural gas truck market; BAIC Heavy Truck did not start selling heavy natural gas trucks in April last year, which is a net increase. At the same time, several companies that fell by double digits, and the company with the worst decline saw a 75% year-on-year decline in sales in April.

In terms of market share, 4 companies had a share of more than 10% in the heavy natural gas truck market in April. Among them, Jiefang and Sinotruk both had monthly shares of more than 20%, and Jiefang and Sinotruk actually sold 8539 and 6,755 heavy natural gas trucks respectively in April, reaching 32.4% and 25.63% respectively. Together, the two companies shared nearly 60% of the natural gas heavy truck market share in April (58.04%); Shaanxi Automobile and Dongfeng actually sold 3734 and 3732 heavy natural gas trucks respectively in April, with monthly shares of 14.16% and 14.17%, respectively. The difference between the two companies was only 2 vehicles; Foton sold 2,310 vehicles for 8.77% of the natural gas heavy truck market in April; Dayun, BAIC Heavy Truck, and Hongyan, which ranked 6-8 in the monthly list, actually sold 471, 326, and 270 vehicles respectively, with monthly shares of 1.79%, 1.24%, and 1.02% in that order; the other companies sold less than 100 vehicles, with a monthly share of less than 0.5%.

Compared with March, the top ten members and rankings of the natural gas heavy truck market all changed: the top 8 companies remained the same, and Beiben and Jianghuai both rose 1 place from 10th and 11th places in the March monthly list to 9th and 10th places respectively; in response, Lianhe Heavy Truck, which ranked 9th in the March monthly list, was squeezed out of the top ten.

In January-April, cumulative sales of 71,600 vehicles surged 144%, and TOP3 cumulative sales exceeded 10,000 units

From January to April 2024, the domestic heavy gas truck market sold a total of 71,600 vehicles, an increase of 144% over the previous year. The cumulative sales increase was 9 percentage points higher than after March (+135%), and the cumulative sales volume increased by about 42,000 vehicles from January to April 2023.

Specifically, in January-April of this year, mainstream companies in the heavy gas truck market increased and fell. The cumulative sales volume of most companies was in an upward range. The cumulative increase of Sinotruk and Foton companies was higher than 144% of the overall market, and while achieving growth, they also outperformed the “big market” of the natural gas heavy truck market; the cumulative sales volume of Jiefang, which ranked number one, also doubled, reaching 142%, almost the same rate as the overall increase in the natural gas heavy truck market; in addition, companies such as Shaanxi Automobile, Dongfeng, and Dayun all achieved double-digit growth. At the same time, two of the top ten sales companies are currently still in a declining range, with year-on-year declines of more than 40%. Judging from the increase, the heavy natural gas truck market is still double hot and cold this year.

After April 2024, the cumulative sales volume of enterprises in the heavy natural gas truck market exceeded 10,000. Currently, the cumulative sales volume of Jiefang, Sinotruk and Shaanxi Automobile reached 24,000 units, 18,500 units, and 10,700 units respectively. Among them, the top two Jiefang and Sinotruk both had cumulative shares of more than 25%, reaching 33.54% and 25.83% respectively. The two companies combined shared close to 60% (59.37%) of the heavy gas truck market from January to April this year, and the cumulative share of Shaanxi Automobile was also close to 15%, reaching 14.9%; Dongfeng Hetian The cumulative sales volume is With 8,940 vehicles and 6,273 vehicles, the market share reached 12.48% and 8.76% respectively; Dayun, which ranked 6th in terms of cumulative sales, sold 1,453 heavy natural gas trucks in January-April this year, with a market share of 2.03%; BAIC Heavy Truck temporarily ranked 7th in the industry with a cumulative sales of 730, with a market share of 1.02%, and other companies all had a market share of less than 1%.

Compared with the same period in 2023, 3 of the top ten sales companies achieved an increase in market share in January-April this year. The most obvious increase in share was Sinotruk. The market share in January-April this year increased by 14.06 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023; Foton increased 3.27 percentage points, and BAIC's heavy truck market share increased 1.02 percentage points. The current cumulative sales increase of several companies that have increased their share is higher than the overall 144% increase in the natural gas heavy truck market (BAIC Heavy Truck is a net increase).

First Commercial Vehicle Network noticed that due to the “entry” of BAIC Heavy Truck, there have been some changes in the current pattern of the natural gas heavy truck industry compared to last year's year-end ranking: Liberation, Sinotruk, Shaanxi Automobile, Dongfeng, Foton, and Grand Transport, which ranked in the top 6 in the industry, held their year-end ranking last year. BAIC Heavy Truck rose 10 places from 17th place at the end of last year to current 7th place in the industry. In this way, the rankings of companies ranked 7th and 8th at the end of last year have declined and were even pushed out of the top ten. It has maintained the top ten positions in the industry.

Closing remarks

In the four months from January to April 2024, sales of heavy natural gas trucks continued to grow year on year, and the growth rate was not low. The average growth rate reached 128%. The continuous growth trend has expanded to “17 consecutive increases”, and the boom is even more intense than that of new energy heavy trucks. In May, the wholesale price of LNG increased compared to April, around 4,300 yuan/ton (as of May 13), but it is still quite friendly. On the other hand, as the country's “trade-in” policy rules encouraging the elimination of old trucks are about to be introduced, demand for terminals is expected to increase year-on-year, and it is very likely that the heavy natural gas truck market will continue to flourish. Therefore, there is little doubt about the continuous growth of the heavy gas truck segment. The more suspense is, can it continue to double?