Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Torrid Holdings fair value estimate is US$7.60
Current share price of US$5.76 suggests Torrid Holdings is potentially 24% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is 41% higher than Torrid Holdings' analyst price target of US$5.39
How far off is Torrid Holdings Inc. (NYSE:CURV) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.
Is Torrid Holdings Fairly Valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)
US$5.47m
US$18.9m
US$48.7m
US$55.0m
US$60.3m
US$64.8m
US$68.7m
US$72.0m
US$75.0m
US$77.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x3
Analyst x1
Analyst x1
Est @ 12.84%
Est @ 9.70%
Est @ 7.51%
Est @ 5.97%
Est @ 4.89%
Est @ 4.14%
Est @ 3.61%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 9.2%
US$5.0
US$15.8
US$37.4
US$38.6
US$38.8
US$38.2
US$37.0
US$35.5
US$33.9
US$32.1
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St) Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$312m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.4%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.2%.
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$1.2b÷ ( 1 + 9.2%)10= US$480m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$793m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$5.8, the company appears a touch undervalued at a 24% discount to where the stock price trades currently. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.
NYSE:CURV Discounted Cash Flow May 14th 2024
The Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Torrid Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.2%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.490. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for Torrid Holdings
Strength
No major strengths identified for CURV.
Weakness
Earnings declined over the past year.
Interest payments on debt are not well covered.
Opportunity
Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the American market.
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Have CURV insiders been buying lately?
Threat
Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.
Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
Annual revenue is forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Is CURV well equipped to handle threats?
Moving On:
Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Torrid Holdings, we've put together three additional elements you should assess:
Risks: Case in point, we've spotted 4 warning signs for Torrid Holdings you should be aware of, and 2 of them are potentially serious.
Future Earnings: How does CURV's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content?Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
