The meme stock frenzy is back!

GameStop surged 74% in a single day. Can the MEME stock frenzy return to 2021?

来源：智通财经

在没有基本面消息的情况下，$游戏驿站 (GME.US)$股价上涨了一倍多。卖空者受到挤压，散户交易者利用当日期权放大原本遭受重创的股票的涨幅。

游戏驿站在周一的涨幅让人联想起2021年初，当时MEME股的狂热抓住了大众的想象力，短线交易员让股票出现了令人费解的疯狂波动。然而，仔细观察一下当时的规模和疯狂程度，就会发现，与最初的MEME股狂热相比，最新的MEME股还差很多。

在三年前的第一轮暴涨中，游戏驿站的股价在几天内飙升了逾1000%，当时散户交易员在Reddit的Wall Street Bets论坛上反击做空该股的华尔街大鳄。如今，那些曾经从大流行时期的刺激措施和就业政策中获得充裕时间和资金的“Reddit攻城者”，大部分都重返工作岗位，承担着更高利率的负担。有些人入市较晚，即使在最近的上涨中，他们仍在亏损。

此外，渴望赌博的交易员现在有了大量的下注选择。当时由于新冠疫情，赌场和赛马场都关闭了，股市成了城里的主要游戏。从那时起，在股市里赌博就成为了主流，任何想要下注的人都可以在手机上点击几下鼠标，就可以在任何他们想要的“游戏”中下注。

专业做空者也基本上放弃了瞄准流通股规模相对较小的公司，担心社交媒体的力量可能会引发挤压。短期期权的交易量虽然仍在上升，但远不及2021年的水平。

金融洞察公司总裁、威廉玛丽大学的兼职教授Peter Atwater表示:“这些总是昙花一现，就像日食一样——它们发生了，然后消失了很长一段时间，然后又发生了。”“但如果你观察一下他们，就会发现他们总是情绪极端。”

周一的买入是由Keith Gill在X周日晚上发布的一条帖子引发的。Gill是零售交易的偶像，绰号“Roaring Kitty”，在2021年6月从社交媒体上消失之前，他推动了最初的狂热。在不到一个小时的时间里，游戏驿站的市值增加了约60亿美元，因为交易员们认为Gill重返推特是繁荣回归的信号。曾经的MEME股宠儿AMC娱乐(AMC.US)上涨了80%以上。新上市的Reddit涨幅高达14%。在加密货币中，Roaring Kitty代币上涨了4000%以上。

随着交易进入下午，大多数股票大幅回落——游戏驿站收盘上涨74%——这平息了人们对另一场MEME股热潮开始的猜测。以下是一些可以解释原因的财务指标:

期权

过去几周，期权交易量有所回升，但与2021年的水平完全不同。周一约有70万份合约易手，是过去一个月平均水平的四倍多。随着大量30美元和34美元合约的变动，看涨期权领涨。

然而，在2021年的模因狂热高峰期，单次交易就有数百万份合约。那一年最活跃的一天是1月22日，交易量达到850万份。

混合订单

2021年热潮的一个驱动因素是，大多数零售交易商还没有游戏驿站，更不用说更高的价格了。当年1月，游戏驿站一直是面向个人投资者的交易平台上最受欢迎的股票，其买入订单远远超过卖出订单。

周一，情况并非如此。虽然游戏驿站是富达平台上交易量最大的股票，但卖出股票的订单几乎与买入股票持平。这表明散户是在相互抛售，而不是股票上涨的唯一推动力。尽管如此，游戏驿站仍远未达到单日峰值。该股需要较周一收盘价上涨逾三倍才能达到这一高点。

买股票的钱少了

当Roaring Kitty和现在的游戏驿站 CEO Ryan Cohen开始掀起梗热时，利率接近历史低点，而随着美联储和国会注入数万亿美元的刺激资金，以支撑在疫情期间陷入衰退的美国经济，股市和加密货币正在飙升。

游戏驿站的上一个传奇故事在三年前成为焦点，之后美联储于2022年3月开始以一代人以来最快的速度加息，以冷却通胀。现在，股市和经济都处于一个不同的位置，散户交易员看到了命运的逆转，因为高借贷成本减少了他们在风险资产中的持有。

除此之外，小型银行的信用卡拖欠率达到了30年来的最高水平，而大型银行的信用卡拖欠率则达到了10年来的最高水平。这意味着小型投资者的流动性可能处于低位，而“宅在家”指令的结束表明，“YOLO”人群又回到了工作或学校，不再沉迷于交易应用程序。

MEME加密货币躁狂

没有内在价值的加密货币的巨大性质也吸收了大量散户投资者的现金。根据CoinGecko的数据，尽管与游戏驿站没有任何关系，但1月底使用游戏驿站的名称、标志和代码创建的代币周一上涨了1400%以上，随后又有所回落。

基于在社交媒体平台上代币的受欢迎程度，所谓的表情币很容易出现剧烈波动。这种代币的交易价格通常不到一美分，只要有几个交易员注入少量现金，加密货币的数量和价格就会飙升。

2021年的伤疤

2021年的迷因股狂潮颠覆了美国股市，并培养了一些华尔街专业人士，但在2022年的熊市之后，这种狂热并没有很好地结束。摩根大通在2022年编制的数据显示，YOLO人群在模因股热潮中赚到的钱全部输光了。

因此，尽管该组织周一的活动重新唤起了人们对2021年高峰的记忆，但它还没有到来。BI编制的估计数据显示，2021年第一季度，股票和ETF的散户交易订单占市场总成交量的24%。BI的数据显示，相比之下，2024年第一季度这一比例略高于17%。

编辑/lambor

Source: Zhitong Finance

In the absence of fundamental news,$GameStop (GME.US)$The share price has more than doubled. Short sellers were squeezed, and retail traders used same-day rights to amplify gains in stocks that had already been hit hard.

Game Station's gains on Monday are reminiscent of the beginning of 2021. At that time, the MEME stock fervor captured the public's imagination, and short-term traders caused inexplicably wild fluctuations in the stock. However, if you take a close look at the scale and craziness at the time, you'll find that compared to the initial MEME stock frenzy, the latest MEME stocks are still much worse.

In the first round of surge three years ago, GameStop's stock price soared more than 1000% in a few days. At that time, retail traders fought back against Wall Street predators who shorted the stock on Reddit's Wall Street Bets forum. Today, most of the “Reddit siegers” who received sufficient time and money from pandemic-era stimulus measures and employment policies have returned to work and are burdened with higher interest rates. Some entered the market late and they are still losing money even during the recent rise.

Furthermore, traders who are eager to gamble now have plenty of betting options. At the time, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, casinos and racecourses were closed, and the stock market became the main game in the city. Since then, gambling has become mainstream in the stock market, and anyone who wants to bet can place a bet on any “game” they want with a few clicks on their phone.

Professional shorters have also largely given up targeting companies with relatively small tradable shares, fearing that the power of social media may cause a squeeze. Although short-term options are still on the rise, they are far below the level of 2021.

Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insights and an adjunct professor at William and Mary University, said: “These are always short-lived, like solar eclipses — they happen, then disappear for a long time, and then happen again.” “But if you look at them, you'll find that they're always extremely emotional.”

Monday's purchase was sparked by a post posted by Keith Gill on Sunday evening X. Gill is an icon of retail trading, nicknamed “Roaring Kitty,” who fueled the initial frenzy before disappearing from social media in June 2021. In less than an hour, GameStop's market capitalization increased by about $6 billion, as traders saw Gill's return to Twitter as a sign of a return to prosperity. AMC Entertainment (AMC.US), the former darling of MEME stocks, rose more than 80%. The newly-listed Reddit saw a 14% increase. Among cryptocurrencies, the Roaring Kitty token is up more than 4000%.

As trading entered the afternoon, most stocks fell sharply — GameStop closed up 74% — which calmed speculations about the beginning of another MEME stock boom. Here are some financial metrics that might explain why:

options

Options trading volume has rebounded over the past few weeks, but it's completely different from the level of 2021. About 700,000 contracts changed hands on Monday, more than four times the average of the past month. With a large number of $30 and $34 contract movements, call options led the way.

However, at the peak of meme frenzy in 2021, there were millions of contracts in a single transaction. The most active day of the year was January 22, when the trading volume reached 8.5 million copies.

Hybrid orders

One driver of the 2021 boom is that most retail traders don't have game stops, let alone higher prices. In January of that year, GameStop was always the most popular stock on trading platforms for individual investors, and its buy orders far exceeded sell orders.

On Monday, that wasn't the case. Although GameStop is the most traded stock on the Fidelity platform, orders to sell shares are almost the same as buying stocks. This suggests that retail investors are selling off each other rather than being the only driving force for stocks to rise. Despite this, GameStop is still far from reaching its single-day peak. The stock needed to rise more than three times from Monday's closing price to reach this high.

I have less money to buy stocks

When Roaring Kitty and current gaming station CEO Ryan Cohen began to set off a fever, interest rates were close to historic lows, and as the Federal Reserve and Congress injected trillions of dollars in stimulus funds to support the US economy, which had fallen into recession during the pandemic, the stock market and cryptocurrencies were soaring.

The last GameStop saga came into focus three years ago, after which the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates at the fastest rate in a generation in March 2022 to cool down inflation. The stock market and economy are now in a different position, and retail traders are seeing a reversal of fortune as high borrowing costs reduce their holdings in risky assets.

In addition, the credit card delinquency rate of small banks reached the highest level in 30 years, while the credit card default rate of large banks reached the highest level in 10 years. This means that liquidity for smaller investors is likely to be low, and the end of the “stay at home” order indicates that “YOLO” people are back at work or school and are no longer addicted to trading apps.

MEME cryptocurrency mania

The huge nature of cryptocurrencies, which have no intrinsic value, has also absorbed large amounts of cash from retail investors. According to CoinGecko data, although not related to GameStation, tokens created at the end of January using GameStation's name, logo, and code rose by more than 1,400% on Monday, then declined somewhat.

Based on the token's popularity on social media platforms, so-called emojis are prone to sharp fluctuations. This token usually trades for less than a cent, and as long as a few traders inject a small amount of cash, the number and price of cryptocurrencies soar.

2021 scars

The 2021 meme stock frenzy disrupted the US stock market and nurtured some Wall Street professionals, but after the 2022 bear market, the frenzy didn't end well. According to data compiled by J.P. Morgan Chase in 2022, YOLO people lost all of the money they earned during the meme stock boom.

So while the organization's Monday event revived memories of the 2021 peak, it hasn't arrived yet. According to estimates compiled by BI, retail trading orders for stocks and ETFs accounted for 24% of total market turnover in the first quarter of 2021. In comparison, the ratio was slightly higher than 17% in the first quarter of 2024, according to BI data.

edit/lambor

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