First Advantage Corporation Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts
First Advantage Corporation Reported A Surprise Loss, And Analysts Have Updated Their Forecasts
Shareholders might have noticed that First Advantage Corporation (NASDAQ:FA) filed its quarterly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.8% to US$15.99 in the past week. Revenues came in at US$169m, in line with estimates, while First Advantage reported a statutory loss of US$0.02 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
股東們可能已經注意到，第一優勢公司（納斯達克股票代碼：FA）上週這個時候公佈了季度業績。早期的反應並不樂觀，過去一週股價下跌4.8％，至15.99美元。收入爲1.69億美元，與預期一致，而First Advantage公佈的每股法定虧損爲0.02美元，遠低於分析師先前的盈利預期。對於投資者來說，這是一個重要時刻，因爲他們可以在報告中追蹤公司的業績，看看專家對明年的預測，看看對該業務的預期是否有任何變化。根據這些結果，我們收集了最新的法定預測，以了解分析師是否改變了盈利模式。
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from First Advantage's nine analysts is for revenues of US$782.7m in 2024. This would reflect a modest 3.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 46% to US$0.33. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$782.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.30 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on First Advantage's earnings potential following these results.
考慮到最新業績，First Advantage的九位分析師目前的共識是，2024年的收入爲7.827億美元。這將反映其在過去12個月中收入略有增長3.3％。每股收益預計將反彈46％，至0.33美元。然而，在最新業績公佈之前，分析師曾預計2024年的收入爲7.825億美元，每股收益（EPS）爲0.30美元。因此，在取得這些業績之後，人們對First Advantage的盈利潛力的共識似乎變得更加樂觀了。
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$18.08, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on First Advantage, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$21.00 and the most bearish at US$15.50 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.
18.08美元的共識目標股價沒有重大變化，這表明每股收益前景的改善不足以對該股估值產生長期的積極影響。研究分析師的估計範圍，評估異常值與平均值的差異程度也可能很有啓發性。對First Advantage的看法有所不同，最看漲的分析師將其估值爲21.00美元，最看跌的爲每股15.50美元。如你所見，分析師對該股的未來並不完全一致，但估計範圍仍然相當狹窄，這可能表明結果並非完全不可預測。
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that First Advantage's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 4.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 8.7% p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.7% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that First Advantage is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.
從現在的大局來看，我們可以理解這些預測的方法之一是看看它們如何與過去的業績和行業增長預期相比較。我們要強調的是，First Advantage的收入增長預計將放緩，預計到2024年底的年化增長率爲4.4％，遠低於過去三年8.7％的歷史年增長率。相比之下，該行業中其他有分析師報道的公司的收入預計將以每年5.7％的速度增長。考慮到預期的增長放緩，很明顯，First Advantage的增長速度預計也將低於其他行業參與者。
The Bottom Line
底線
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around First Advantage's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that First Advantage's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
對我們來說，最大的收穫是共識的每股收益上調，這表明人們對First Advantage明年盈利潛力的看法明顯改善。幸運的是，分析師還重申了他們的收入預期，表明收入符合預期。儘管我們的數據確實表明，預計First Advantage的收入表現將比整個行業差。共識目標股價沒有實際變化，這表明該業務的內在價值與最新估計相比沒有發生任何重大變化。
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple First Advantage analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
根據這種思路，我們認爲該業務的長期前景比明年的收益重要得多。根據多位First Advantage分析師的估計，到2026年，你可以在我們的平台上免費查看。
You still need to take note of risks, for example - First Advantage has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
您仍然需要注意風險，例如，First Advantage有1個警告信號，我們認爲您應該注意。
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