AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

AMN Healthcare Services, Inc. (NYSE:AMN) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.1% to US$54.71 in the week after its latest quarterly results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$821m were in line with what the analysts predicted, AMN Healthcare Services surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$0.45 per share, a notable 13% above expectations. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for AMN Healthcare Services

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from nine analysts covering AMN Healthcare Services is for revenues of US$2.98b in 2024. This implies a not inconsiderable 14% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to tumble 65% to US$1.33 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.17b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.65 in 2024. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

It'll come as no surprise then, to learn that the analysts have cut their price target 5.8% to US$70.75. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AMN Healthcare Services analyst has a price target of US$95.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$60.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 19% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 17% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 6.6% per year. It's pretty clear that AMN Healthcare Services' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for AMN Healthcare Services. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of AMN Healthcare Services' future valuation.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for AMN Healthcare Services going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 2 warning signs for AMN Healthcare Services that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.