Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ:CLNE) just released its latest first-quarter results and things are looking bullish. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$104m leading estimates by 4.0%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.08 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Clean Energy Fuels after the latest results.

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Clean Energy Fuels are now predicting revenues of US$436.6m in 2024. If met, this would reflect a decent 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share losses are predicted to creep up to US$0.37. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$439.6m and losses of US$0.35 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear consensus is mixed on Clean Energy Fuels after the new consensus numbers; while the analysts held their revenue numbers steady, they also administered a pronounced increase to per-share loss expectations.

With the increase in forecast losses for next year, it's perhaps no surprise to see that the average price target dipped 29% to US$5.31, with the analysts signalling that growing losses would be a definite concern. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Clean Energy Fuels at US$10.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$4.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Clean Energy Fuels' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 14% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 7.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Clean Energy Fuels to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Clean Energy Fuels' future valuation.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Clean Energy Fuels going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Clean Energy Fuels you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.