Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure plc (NASDAQ:AY) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Revenues and losses per share were both better than expected, with revenues of US$243m leading estimates by 2.4%. Statutory losses were smaller than the analystsexpected, coming in at US$0.05 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure

After the latest results, the seven analysts covering Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure are now predicting revenues of US$1.16b in 2024. If met, this would reflect an okay 4.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 46% to US$0.23 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$1.16b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.41 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a pretty serious reduction to EPS estimates.

The consensus price target held steady at US$23.23, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure analyst has a price target of US$33.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.5% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.9% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.6% annually. Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.23, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (1 is concerning!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.