Goldman Sachs analyst Ben Andrews is out with a new report on the state of the sports betting sector.
March online sports betting data points to the industry being softer, Andrews wrote, citing 7% year-over-year growth compared to 17% year-over-year growth in February.
The key leaders in the industry include FanDuel, which is owned by Flutter Entertainment (NYSE:FLUT), DraftKings Inc (NASDAQ:DKNG) and BetMGM, a joint venture from Entain ADR (OTC:GMVHY) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM).
FanDuel and BetMGM saw gains in March, while DraftKings saw a lower share, he said.
"Together, the two market leaders – Flutter and DraftKings – hold 80% GGR market share YTD in OSB," Andrews said.
FanDuel continues to be well ahead of competitors and has extended the gap with DraftKings over the last four months.
"Flutter's GGR win margins continue to be ahead of its competitors in the states we track, indicative of better monetization and product mix."
Andrews said most investors see a duopoly or oligopoly in most states for online sports betting. The analyst said BetMGM has improved online sports betting market share but there "remains a significant gap" between third place and the top two operators.
Fanatics and ESPN Bet, which comes from PENN Entertainment (NASDAQ:PENN), are new entrants in the sports betting market. They present a risk to BetMGM, Andrews says.
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Goldman Sachs recently initiated coverage on DraftKings with a Buy rating and a $60 price target.
According to Andrews, DraftKings could benefit from online gaming expansion and improved unit economics. Also, strong free cash flow allows for investment options and the company may consider returning capital to shareholders.
Goldman Sachs also has a Buy rating on Flutter Entertainment
Flutter's scale, diversification, and leadership positions it to capitalize on key structural growth themes in the sector, Andrews said.
"We believe Flutter's earnings profile is on the cusp of transformation as the profitability of its US division inflects, driving a doubling of group EBITDA over the next three years," he added.
Goldman Sachs has a Sell rating on Entain, which trades on the London Stock Exchange.
"We believe the inflection of Entain's fundamentals will take longer to come through, which led us to lower our estimates materially in November 2023."
The value of BetMGM might not be fully recognized in Entain's share price, Andrews says. A delay in the path to profitability could delay that realization in the near-term.
"Absent external catalysts, we would expect the shares to continue to underperform within our coverage on a 12-month view."
高盛分析師Ben Andrews發佈了一份關於體育博彩行業狀況的新報告。
安德魯斯寫道，3月份的在線體育博彩數據表明該行業表現疲軟，他指出，同比增長7％，而2月份同比增長17％。
該行業的主要領導者包括Flutter Entertainment（紐約證券交易所代碼：FLUT）旗下的FanDuel、DraftKings Inc（納斯達克股票代碼：DKNG）和Entain ADR（場外交易代碼：GMVHY）和米高梅國際度假村（紐約證券交易所代碼：MGM）的合資企業BetMGM。
他說，FanDuel和BetMGM在3月份出現了上漲，而DraftKings的份額有所下降。
安德魯斯說：“兩家市場領導者——Flutter和DraftKings——共佔OSB年初至今80％的GGR市場份額。”
FanDuel繼續遠遠領先於競爭對手，並且在過去的四個月中擴大了與DraftKings的差距。
“在我們追蹤的州，Flutter的GGR贏利率繼續領先於競爭對手，這表明盈利和產品組合有所改善。”
安德魯斯說，大多數投資者認爲大多數州的在線體育博彩存在雙頭壟斷或寡頭壟斷。這位分析師表示，BetMGM已經提高了在線體育博彩的市場份額，但第三名和前兩名運營商之間 “仍然存在巨大差距”。
來自賓夕法尼亞娛樂公司（納斯達克股票代碼：PENN）的Fanatics和ESPN Bet是體育博彩市場的新進入者。安德魯斯說，它們對BetMGM構成了風險。
體育博彩股票精選
高盛最近開始對DraftKings進行報道，評級爲買入，目標股價爲60美元。
根據安德魯斯的說法，DraftKings可以受益於在線遊戲的擴張和單位經濟的改善。此外，強勁的自由現金流爲投資選擇提供了空間，公司可能會考慮向股東返還資本。
高盛對Flutter Entertainment的評級也爲買入
安德魯斯說，Flutter的規模、多元化和領導地位使其能夠利用該行業的關鍵結構性增長主題。
他補充說：“我們認爲，隨着Flutter美國分部的盈利能力發生變化，Flutter的收益狀況正處於轉型的風口浪尖，這推動了未來三年集團息稅折舊攤銷前利潤翻了一番。”
高盛對在倫敦證券交易所交易的Entain的評級爲賣出。
“我們認爲，Entain基本面的變化將需要更長的時間才能實現，這導致我們在2023年11月大幅下調了預期。”
安德魯斯說，BetMGM的價值可能無法在Entain的股價中得到充分認可。盈利之路的延遲可能會在短期內推遲這一實現。
“如果沒有外部催化劑，我們預計該股將在12個月的展望範圍內繼續表現不佳。”
