YUNDA HOLDING(002120):COSTS IMPROVE NOTABLY IN 1Q24; WATCH EPS RECOVERY
YUNDA HOLDING(002120):COSTS IMPROVE NOTABLY IN 1Q24; WATCH EPS RECOVERY
2023 earnings miss our expectation; 1Q24 earnings slightly beat our expectation
2023 年的收益未達到我們的預期；24 年第一季度的收益略高於我們的預期
Yunda Holding announced its 2023 results: Revenue fell 5.17% YoY to Rmb44.983bn, net profit attributable to shareholders rose 9.58% YoY to Rmb1.625bn, and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders grew 0.07% YoY to Rmb1.39bn. In 4Q23, the firm's revenue fell 0.34% YoY to Rmb12.147bn, net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 37.47% YoY to Rmb461mn, and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders fell 39.28% YoY to Rmb0.42bn, missing our expectation due to industry-wide price competition in 2H23.
運達控股公佈了其2023年業績：收入同比下降5.17％至人民幣449.83億元，股東應占淨利潤同比增長9.58％至16.25億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的經常性淨利潤同比增長0.07％至13.9億元人民幣。在23年第四季度，該公司的收入同比下降0.34％至121.47億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比下降37.47％至4.61億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的經常性淨利潤同比下降39.28％至42億元人民幣，未達到我們的預期，這是由於23年下半年的全行業價格競爭。
Per-parcel data: In 2023, the firm's per-parcel cost fell by Rmb0.29 YoY to Rmb2.16 thanks to economies of scale and effective cost control, with per- parcel delivery expenses declining by Rmb0.13 YoY, per-parcel transportation and operating costs dropping by Rmb0.11 YoY, per-parcel gross profit falling by Rmb0.02 YoY to Rmb0.23, per-parcel net profit staying roughly flat YoY at Rmb0.09, and per-parcel recurring net profit falling by Rmb0.01 YoY to Rmb0.07.
每包裹數據：2023年，該公司的每包裹成本同比下降0.29元至2.16元人民幣，這要歸功於規模經濟和有效的成本控制，每包裹的交付費用同比下降0.13元人民幣，每個包裹的運輸和運營成本同比下降0.11元人民幣，每個包裹的毛利潤同比下降0.02元人民幣，至0.23元人民幣，每包裹淨利潤同比持平，爲0.09元人民幣，以及每個包裹的經常性淨利潤同比下降0.01元人民幣，至人民幣0.07元。
The firm also announced its 1Q24 results: Revenue rose 6.50% YoY to Rmb11.156bn, net profit attributable to shareholders grew 15.02% YoY to Rmb412mn, and recurring net profit attributable to shareholders grew 11.50% YoY to Rmb385mn.
該公司還公佈了其24年第一季度業績：收入同比增長6.50％至111.56億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的淨利潤同比增長15.02％至4.12億元人民幣，歸屬於股東的經常性淨利潤同比增長11.50％至人民幣3.85億元。
Per-parcel data: In 1Q24, the firm's parcel volume rose 29.1% YoY to 4.942bn units and its market share rose 0.4ppt YoY to 13.3%, implying per-parcel revenue of Rmb2.26 (falling by Rmb0.48 YoY). Per-parcel transportation and operating costs fell by Rmb0.24 YoY to Rmb0.76, improving notably. Per-parcel net profit and per-parcel recurring net profit were both Rmb0.08, which remained almost flat QoQ, slightly beating our expectation.
每個包裹的數據：在24年第一季度，該公司的包裹量同比增長29.1％，至49.42億個，其市場份額同比增長0.4個百分點至13.3％，這意味着每個包裹收入爲2.26元人民幣（同比下降0.48元人民幣）。每個包裹的運輸和運營成本同比下降0.24元人民幣至0.76元人民幣，明顯改善。每個包裹的淨利潤和每個包裹的經常性淨利潤均爲0.08元人民幣，環比幾乎持平，略高於我們的預期。
Trends to watch
值得關注的趨勢
Industry: Express delivery service demand data continued to improve; parcel volume growth may continue to beat expectations. Data from the State Post Bureau shows that domestic express delivery parcel volume grew 25.2% YoY in 1Q24, beating market expectations. We expect growth rate of full-year parcel volume to exceed previous expectation of 10-15% driven by live-streaming-based e-commerce, smaller parcels, and returned parcels.
行業：快遞服務需求數據持續改善；包裹量增長可能繼續超出預期。國家郵政局的數據顯示，國內快遞包裹量在24年第一季度同比增長25.2％，超出市場預期。我們預計，在基於直播的電子商務、小包裹和退回包裹的推動下，全年包裹量的增長率將超過先前預期的10-15％。
Limited downside potential in unit price. We think the express delivery industry's capex has passed its peak and is in a downward trend, and industry-wide competition is manageable. Given regulatory guidance for the industry's high-quality development, we see limited downside potential in prices in the industry and we think cost of the industry has room for optimization in 2024. In 1Q24, Yunda's per-parcel revenue rose by Rmb0.08 QoQ.
單位價格的下行潛力有限。我們認爲，快遞行業的資本支出已過頂峯並處於下降趨勢，整個行業的競爭是可以控制的。鑑於該行業高質量發展的監管指導，我們認爲該行業價格的下行潛力有限，我們認爲該行業的成本在2024年還有優化的空間。在24年第一季度，運達的每個包裹收入環比增長了0.08元人民幣。
Looking ahead, we suggest watching the firm's possible profit recovery if its parcel volume maintains rapid growth, capacity utilization rate increases, and cost control proves effective. We expect the firm's earnings to recover amid rapid growth in parcel volume, improving product and service capabilities, and better cost control, mainly due to three factors. First, the firm's capex is in a downward trend. Second, the firm's per-parcel cost continues to improve thanks to economies of scale and refined cost control. Third, the firm's per-parcel expenses continue to be optimized, and we think its financial expenses are likely to keep falling along with improving balance sheet. The firm's shareholder returns are improving steadily, and it plans to pay a dividend of Rmb493mn for 2023 with dividend payout ratio at 30%, dividend per share at Rmb0.17 (+227% YoY) and total stock dividends and buybacks at Rmb513mn.
展望未來，如果包裹量保持快速增長，產能利用率提高且成本控制被證明有效，我們建議觀察該公司的利潤回升。我們預計，在包裹量快速增長、產品和服務能力提高以及成本控制改善的背景下，該公司的收益將恢復，這主要歸因於三個因素。首先，該公司的資本支出呈下降趨勢。其次，得益於規模經濟和完善的成本控制，該公司的每包裹成本持續改善。第三，該公司的每包裹支出繼續得到優化，我們認爲隨着資產負債表的改善，其財務支出可能會繼續下降。該公司的股東回報率穩步提高，計劃在2023年派發4.93億元人民幣的股息，股息支付率爲30％，每股股息爲0.17元人民幣（同比增長227％），股票分紅和回購總額爲人民幣5.13億元。
Financials and valuation
財務和估值
Given the firm's better-than-expected parcel volume growth, modest QoQ growth in its service prices, and a weaker-than-expected YoY increase in per-parcel earnings, we lower our 2024 and 2025 earnings forecasts by 10.8% and 18.2% to Rmb2.32bn and Rmb2.79bn. The stock is trading at 9.8x 2024e and 8.1x 2025e P/E. As parcel volume growth may boost the firm's earnings growth, we maintain our OUTPERFORM rating and target price of Rmb10.8, implying 13.5x 2024e and 11.2x 2025e P/E, offering 37.6% upside.
鑑於該公司的包裹量增長好於預期，服務價格環比的溫和增長，以及每個包裹收益的同比增幅低於預期，我們將2024年和2025年的收益預期下調了10.8％和18.2％，至23.2億元人民幣和27.9億元人民幣。該股的交易價格爲2024年的9.8倍，2025年市盈率爲8.1倍。由於包裹量增長可能提振公司的收益增長，我們維持跑贏大盤的評級和10.8元人民幣的目標價格，這意味着2024年市盈率爲13.5倍，2025年市盈率爲11.2倍，上漲幅度爲37.6％。
Risks
風險
Express delivery parcel volume disappoints; competition intensifies.
快遞包裹量令人失望；競爭加劇。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。