PICC P&C(2328.HK):1Q24 CATASTROPHE-INDUCED CLAIMS FULLY RELEASED;FY24 COR GUIDANCE SUSTAINED; EXP. >40% PAYOUT
PICC P&C(2328.HK):1Q24 CATASTROPHE-INDUCED CLAIMS FULLY RELEASED;FY24 COR GUIDANCE SUSTAINED; EXP. >40% PAYOUT
PICC P&C reported weaker-than-expected first-quarter results given the 1Q24 CoR slightly increased to 97.9% (vs: FY23: 97.8%) and auto/non-auto premium growth dropped to +1.9%/+5.0% YoY (1Q23: +6.5%/+12.8% YoY). Dragged by increased claims for low-temperature and freezing rain in 1-2M24, transportation recovery and premium slowdown, the insurer's underwriting profit (UWP) slid by 49.1% YoY to RMB2.4bn, adversely impacting net profit by -38.3% YoY to RMB 5.9bn. Investment result concerned market as net investment yield (not annualized) was 0.8%, lower than that of some life peers. We regard the weaker-than-expected investment more of an issue of asset allocation than of investment capability, given 1) most equity-type investments were allocated into funds, i.e. FOFs, which were designated into FVTPL under IFRS 9, with their value fluctuations directly offsetting net profit; 2) 21% (out of 40% in total) of bond investments was assigned to FVOCI, for which the fair value gains were recorded in OCI, not P/L net profit. Despite a weak 1Q print, we remain confident on the insurer's UW resilience given 1) catastrophe-induced claims were fully released in first quarter, and 2) monthly premium growth recovered as 1Q seasonality faded out. Considering the persisting effect of asset allocation and market fluctuations, we revise down FY24-26E EPS by 2%-6% for investment volatilities. Maintain BUY, with TP at HK$11.9, implying 1.0x FY24E P/BV.
鑑於24財年第一季度CoR略有增長至97.9％（對比23財年：97.8％），汽車/非汽車保費同比增長1.9％/增長5.0％（23年第一季度：同比增長6.5％/+12.8％），中國人民財產保險公司公佈的第一季度業績低於預期。受 1-2M24 低溫和凍雨索賠增加、運輸復甦和保費放緩的拖累，該保險公司的承保利潤（UWP）同比下降49.1％，至24億元人民幣，對淨利潤同比下降-38.3％，至人民幣59億元。投資業績令市場擔憂，淨投資收益率（未按年計算）爲0.8％，低於一些壽險同行。我們認爲低於預期的投資與其說是投資能力問題，不如說是資產配置問題，因爲1) 大多數股票類投資都被分配到基金中，即根據國際財務報告準則第9號被指定爲FVTPL的FOF，其價值波動直接抵消了淨利潤；2) 21％（佔總額40％）的債券投資分配給了FVOCI，其公允價值收益記錄在OCI中，而不是P/P L 淨利潤。儘管第一季度表現疲軟，但我們對該保險公司威斯康星大學的韌性仍然充滿信心，因爲1) 災難引發的索賠已在第一季度全面公佈，2) 隨着第一季度季節性的消退，月度保費增長有所恢復。考慮到資產配置和市場波動的持續影響，我們將投資波動性的 FY24-26E 每股收益下調了2％-6％。維持買入，目標價爲11.9港元，這意味着市盈率爲1.0倍 FY24E。
Auto/non-auto growth dipped for seasonality. In 1Q24, auto premium growth slid to +1.9% YoY (vs 1Q23: +6.5% YoY), lower than our long-run projection of 5% (link), primarily dragged by lower avg. ticket size offered by small- to mid- sized peers who intended to gain more share at year-start, causing the industry pricing level to decline. Non-auto was tugged by postponed tenders of policy- backed biz, i.e. agriculture insurance, which was +3.2% YoY (vs 1Q23: +23.2% YoY). With increased claims paid for freezing rain and recovered transportation in 1Q24, we expect the reserve surplus of small- to mid-sized insurers' to be used up, which would bring the industry's auto pricing back to normal. Looking ahead, we think the insurer has stronger-than-peers' upside in auto expansion even if new car sales paced down because of an optimized structure, where 65% of NEVs were home-owned with CoR less than 100%, and claims for commercial vehicles could be compensated by repricing. With contracted expense rates, we expect FY24E auto CoR to be 96.7% (CMBI est), meeting year-start guidance of <97%. For non-auto, agriculture premium increased by +14.7% YoY in Mar, reflecting strong momentum once the government tender projects recovered. We remain positive on growth of A&H and expect non-auto CoR at 98.9% (CMBI est).
由於季節性，汽車/非汽車的增長有所下降。在24年第一季度，汽車保費同比增長1.9％（相比23年第一季度：同比增長6.5％），低於我們長期預測的5％（鏈接），這主要是由於中小型同行提供的平均票面降低，他們打算在年初獲得更多份額，導致行業定價水平下降。非汽車行業受到保單支持業務（即農業保險）延期招標的拖累，該招標同比增長3.2％（而23年第一季度：同比增長23.2％）。隨着24年第一季度爲凍雨和恢復的運輸支付的索賠增加，我們預計中小型保險公司的儲備盈餘將被用完，這將使該行業的汽車定價恢復正常。展望未來，我們認爲該保險公司在汽車擴張方面的上行空間要強於同行，儘管由於結構優化，新車銷售放緩，65％的新能源汽車是自有的，CoR低於100％，商用車的索賠可以通過重新定價來補償。按照合同支出率，我們預計 FY24E 汽車成本將達到96.7％（CMBI估計值），達到
Investment weighed on NP. The insurer's investment missed in 1Q24, with rpt. investment income (incl. contributions from AJVs) -36% YoY to RMB2.15bn; if excl. profit from AJVs, the figure was -52.5% to RMB1.23bn. Despite low interest rates, the insurer realized a fair value loss of RMB164mn (vs 1Q23: RMB1.2bn gain). We view the weaker-than-expected result more of an issue of allocation rather than the insurer's investment capability, given 1) most equity-type assets were allocated to funds, i.e. FOFs, which were designated to FVTPL under IFRS 9, with value fluctuations directly offsetting net profit; 2) 21% (out of 40%) of bonds was assigned to FVOCI, for which the fair value gain was recorded in OCI, not in P/L net profit. As the change in investment structure may take longer, we revise down our EPS forecast by 2%-6% to RMB1.32/RMB1.43/RMB1.55 in FY24-26E to imply current allocation and investment volatilities.
投資打壓了NP。該保險公司的投資在24年第一季度未完成，長期投資收益（包括合資公司的出資）同比下降36％至21.5億元人民幣；如果不包括合資企業的利潤，該數字爲-52.5％至12.3億元人民幣。儘管利率很低，但該保險公司還是實現了1.64億元人民幣的公允價值虧損（與23年第一季度相比：12億元人民幣的收益）。我們認爲低於預期的結果更像是配置問題，而不是保險公司的投資能力問題，因爲1) 大多數股票類資產都分配給基金，即FOF，根據國際財務報告準則第9號指定給FVTPL，價值波動直接抵消了淨利潤；2) 21％（佔40％）的債券分配給了FVOCI，其公允價值收益記錄在OCI中，而不是在P/P中 L 淨利潤。由於投資結構的變化可能需要更長的時間，我們將在 FY24-26E 中對每股收益的預測下調了2％-6％，至人民幣1.32/人民幣1.43元/人民幣1.55元，以暗示當前的配置和投資波動性。
Valuation: The stock is now trading at 0.8x FY24E P/BV, with price dipping after worse-than-expected 1Q24 results. We remain positive on the P&C leader given 1) its UW resilience on the back of the biggest market share at 35.5% by 1Q24; and 2) a defensive play delivering >40% payout and an est. 6.0% FY24E dividend yield. Maintain BUY with TP at HK$11.9, implying 1.0x FY24E P/BV.
估值：該股目前的交易價格爲 FY24E 市盈率的0.8倍，在24年第一季度的業績低於預期之後，價格下跌。我們對這家財險領導者仍然持樂觀態度，因爲1）威斯康星大學的彈性，其市場份額最大，到24年第一季度爲35.5％；2）防禦性舉措的派息率超過40％，FY24E 股息收益率預計爲6.0％。維持買入，目標價爲11.9港元，這意味着市盈率爲1.0倍 FY24E。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。