CPIC(2601.HK):VNB GROWTH ACCELERATED; NP TURNED POSITIVE YOY
CPIC(2601.HK):VNB GROWTH ACCELERATED; NP TURNED POSITIVE YOY
CPIC turned to positive VNB growth by +30.7% YoY in 1Q24, outpacing peers i.e. China Life / Ping An +26.3%/+20.7% YoY in the corresponding period (link/link). The strong VNB momentum was driven by margin expansion to an est.15.8%, +3.7pct YoY (CMBI est), and a slight increase in FYP by 0.4% YoY to RMB32.8bn (Fig.3). The Group's net profit to S/H grew by +1.1% YoY to RMB 11.8bn in 1Q24, surpassing peers being the first among listed CN insurers to realize positive net profit growth. We see the insurer's life underwriting focus reverted back to agency with the agency FYRP/FYSP +25.4%/+44.5% in 1Q24, whereas in 4Q23 was - 3.6%/-53.6% YoY. These enhanced the rally in agency FYP by +31.3% YoY to RMB16.1bn, shifting from a -21% decline in 4Q23. Bancassurance was another story, still consuming impacts on the tightened oversight since last fall. The channel's FYP was -21.8% YoY in 1Q24, although narrowed from a -54.6% decline in 4Q23 (Fig 3). We view the improved first-quarter print a head of steam built-up upon the proceeding Changhang Transformation, which has been initiated in 2022. We think the regulatory impact on bancassurance will gradually fade out after the lacklustre 4Q23 & 1Q23 prints. For P&C, CoR dropped by -0.4pct to 98%, with premium rise driven by non-auto segment. We stay overweight on the insurer's resilience and think the effective chg. of Changhang could deliver strong efficiency gains over quarters. We adjust our TP to HK$24.8, implying 0.4x FY24E P/EV.
太保在24年第一季度轉向VNB正增長,同比增長30.7%,超過同期同期中國人壽/平安同比增長26.3%/20.7%(鏈接/鏈接)。VNB的強勁勢頭是由利潤增長至預計值0.15.8%,同比增長3.7個百分點(CMBI估計值)以及五年期同比小幅增長0.4%至328億元人民幣(圖3)所推動的。該集團對S/H的淨利潤在24年第一季度同比增長1.1%至人民幣118億元,超過同行,成爲中國上市保險公司中首家實現正淨利潤增長的公司。我們預計,該保險公司的人壽承保重點又回到了代理機構,該機構FYRP/FYSP在24年第一季度增長了25.4%/+44.5%,而在23年第四季度爲-3.6%/-53.6%。這使機構五年計劃的漲幅從23年第四季度的-21%轉爲人民幣161億元,同比增長31.3%。銀行保險則是另一回事,自去年秋天以來,它仍然對加強的監督產生了消極影響。該頻道的FYP在24年第一季度同比下降21.8%,儘管與23年第四季度的-54.6%相比有所收窄(圖3)。我們認爲,在2022年啓動的長航轉型的基礎上,第一季度業績的改善勢頭強勁。我們認爲,在23年第四季度和第二季度表現乏善可陳之後,監管對銀行保險的影響將逐漸消失。在財產和保險方面,CoR下跌了-0.4個百分點至98%,保費上漲是由非汽車板塊推動的。我們對該保險公司的彈性保持高度重視,並認爲長航的有效補貼可以在幾個季度內帶來強勁的效率提升。我們將目標價調整爲24.8港元,這意味着0.4倍 FY24E 市盈率。
Life focus back to agency; banca to face high base in 2Q24. Despite the bancassurance FYP cut by -21.8% YoY, the insurer managed to lifting total FYP by +0.4% YoY to RMB32.8bn, outweighing listed peers i.e. China Life/Ping An Life/New China Life's 1Q24 FYP was down by -4.4%/-13.6%/-45.0% YoY. The uptick was driven by a shift of focus back to agency, where the channel's FYRP/FYSP +25.4%/+44.5% YoY in 1Q24, pulling an FYP increase by +31.3% (Fig.3). VNB achieved better-than-expected growth by +30.7% to RMB 5.2bn, partially thanks to contracted proportions of bancassurance sales. We estimate the margin (FYP basis) rose to 15.8%, +3.7pct YoY in 1Q24. Given a high base of bancassurance biz since 2Q23, we think CPIC may persist on strengthening agent productivity and group insurance to balance out growth. Looking ahead, we expect more upside on the insurer's margin expansion given progressive advancement on Changhang, which addressed on quality growth and stabilized contributions from bancassurance as regulatory impact gradually bottomed out.
生活焦點回到了代理機構;銀行將在24年第二季度面臨較高的基數。儘管銀行保險財年計劃同比下調了-21.8%,但該保險公司設法將全年總額同比增長0.4%至328億元人民幣,超過了上市同行,即中國人壽/平安人壽/新中國人壽的24財年第一季度同比下降-4.4%/-13.6%/-45.0%。上漲是由焦點轉移回代理機構推動的,該頻道的FYRP/FYSP在24年第一季度同比增長25.4%/+44.5%,使FYP增長了+ 31.3%(圖3)。VNB實現了超過預期的增長,增長了30.7%,達到52億元人民幣,這在一定程度上要歸功於銀行保險銷售的合同比例。我們估計,利潤率(以全年爲基礎)在24年第一季度上升至15.8%,同比增長3.7個百分點。鑑於自23年第二季度以來銀行保險業務的基礎很高,我們認爲太平洋保險可能會堅持提高代理人生產率和團體保險以平衡增長。展望未來,鑑於長航的逐步發展,我們預計該保險公司的利潤擴張將有更多上升空間。隨着監管影響逐漸觸底,長航涉及質量增長和銀行保險的穩定供款。
1Q24 net profit turnaround; eyes on investment. The insurer showed resilient profitability as the Group's net profit to S/H +1.1% YoY to RMB11.8bn in 1Q24, suggesting a turnaround after declines for three consecutive quarters since 2Q23 . The print topped main peers as China Life /Ping An/New China Life still entangled with a net profit decline by-9.3%/-4.3%/-28.6% YoY respectively in 1Q24. Net investment results slid by -26.1% YoY due to drops in net interest income (-5.9%) and investment income turning from RMB1.1bn gain in 1Q23 to RMB1.5bn loss in 1Q24, offsetting the fair value gain of +23.8%.
24 年第一季度淨利潤好轉;着眼於投資。該保險公司表現出穩健的盈利能力,該集團在24年第一季度淨利潤同比增長1.1%至118億元人民幣,這表明自23年第二季度以來連續三個季度下降之後出現了轉機。由於中國人壽/平安/新中國人壽在24年第一季度淨利潤同比分別下降-9.3%/-4.3%/-28.6%,因此該數據超過了主要同行。淨投資業績同比下滑-26.1%,這是由於淨利息收入下降(-5.9%),投資收益從23年第一季度的11億元人民幣收益轉爲24年第一季度的15億元人民幣虧損,抵消了+ 23.8%的公允價值收益。
New TP at HK24.8. The stock is trading at FY24E 0.3x P/EV and 0.6x P/BV. We adjust our TP based on SOTP, with Life EV reflecting on sensitivity changes under the new actuarial assumptions (@9%, 4.5%) by end-23 . Maintain BUY. New price target implies 0.4x FY24E P/EV and 0.84x FY24E P/BV .
新目標價爲24.8港元。該股的交易價格爲 FY24E 0.3倍市盈率和0.6倍市盈率。我們根據SOTP調整目標,到23年底,人壽電動汽車將反映新精算假設(@9%,4.5%)下的靈敏度變化。維持買入。新的目標股價意味着0.4倍的 FY24E 市盈率和0.84倍的 FY24E 市盈率。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。